MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s4

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 135

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 45 predictions shown

direction hit

45.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1538

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

+0.0101

actual -0.0513

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001936	0.001923	-0.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.82
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001793	-0.35%	0.001936	+7.59%	0.0791	✗	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001933	-0.45%	0.0018	-7.34%	0.0834	✓	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001786	-0.02%	0.001942	+8.73%	0.0857	✗	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002085	-0.45%	0.001786	-14.71%	0.1618	✓	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.00234	-0.91%	0.002094	-11.33%	0.1097	✓	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002396	-1.11%	0.002361	-2.54%	0.0073	✓	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002245	-0.37%	0.002423	+7.55%	0.0702	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.002051	+0.37%	0.002253	+10.28%	0.1146	✓	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002163	+0.40%	0.002043	-5.18%	0.0756	✗	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001853	+1.31%	0.002155	+17.76%	0.1855	✓	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001857	+1.55%	0.001829	+0.03%	0.0287	✗	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.00188	+1.71%	0.001829	-1.05%	0.0341	✗	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002137	+1.54%	0.001849	-12.19%	0.1609	✗	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.00244	+1.17%	0.002105	-12.73%	0.1200	✗	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.00241	+1.27%	0.002412	+1.34%	0.0453	✓	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002887	+0.34%	0.00238	-17.27%	0.1891	✗	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.00236	+1.43%	0.002877	+23.66%	0.2144	✓	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001758	+2.31%	0.002327	+35.42%	0.2511	✓	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001725	+2.41%	0.001718	+1.99%	0.0081	✓	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001729	+2.45%	0.001685	-0.21%	0.0204	✓	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002444	+2.25%	0.001688	-29.37%	0.3966	✗	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003151	+1.84%	0.00239	-22.77%	0.2749	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.00369	+1.50%	0.003095	-14.88%	0.1797	✗	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003726	+1.52%	0.003635	-0.94%	0.0125	✓	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004606	+0.92%	0.00367	-19.59%	0.2277	✗	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004977	+0.71%	0.004564	-7.64%	0.0904	✗	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004548	+1.18%	0.004941	+9.93%	0.0864	✓	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004644	+1.23%	0.004495	-2.01%	0.0326	✗	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.00489	+0.98%	0.004587	-5.27%	0.0425	✗	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005383	+0.66%	0.004842	-9.46%	0.1014	✗	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004544	+1.77%	0.005348	+19.78%	0.0981	✓	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004353	+1.97%	0.004465	+4.59%	0.0263	✓	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005697	+1.68%	0.004269	-23.81%	0.2930	✗	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005617	+1.95%	0.005603	+1.71%	0.0600	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.00444	+2.21%	0.005509	+26.82%	0.2131	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.006047	+2.11%	0.004344	-26.65%	0.3382	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008686	+1.63%	0.005922	-30.71%	0.3494	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006419	+2.11%	0.008547	+35.96%	0.2685	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008563	+1.89%	0.006287	-25.20%	0.3030	✗	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006444	+1.30%	0.008404	+32.11%	0.2648	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008579	+1.50%	0.006361	-24.74%	0.3078	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010547	+0.59%	0.008453	-19.38%	0.1987	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017827	-0.16%	0.010485	-41.28%	0.5287	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.017479	-2.92%	0.017855	-0.83%	0.0295	✓	1.00