DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 501

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

164

of 167 predictions shown

direction hit

60.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1204

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0192

actual -0.0319

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	2.0122	+1.19%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.8557	+0.99%	1.9885	+8.22%	0.0721	✓	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	3.0762	+0.23%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.5286	✗	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.3373	-0.90%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0818	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.4617	-3.60%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0352	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	11.2486	-3.39%	3.591	-69.16%	1.1404	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	1.6329	-29.30%	11.643	+404.14%	1.9720	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.0825	-30.19%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.0967	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	2.8584	-29.94%	2.983	-26.89%	0.0613	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	3.8741	-29.65%	4.08	-25.91%	0.0353	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	7.0358	-23.05%	5.507	-39.77%	0.2216	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	15.6873	-9.06%	9.143	-47.00%	0.5491	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	12.8043	-23.39%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.2936	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	11.9007	-30.67%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.3293	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	17.2712	-29.53%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.0130	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	34.6718	-20.38%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.3201	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	80.2893	-6.05%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6094	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000374445	-0.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000378234	-0.41%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0220	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249962	+0.19%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3619	✓	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000269425	+0.16%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0703	✗	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000308886	-0.00%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1833	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000270635	+0.16%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1498	✓	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000281408	+0.15%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0570	✗	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000310413	+0.07%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0760	✗	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000301822	+0.11%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0346	✓	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000279351	+0.20%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0207	✓	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000303305	+0.13%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0763	✗	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000304904	+0.17%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0360	✓	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000332324	+0.10%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0831	✗	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000308089	+0.19%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0751	✓	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000327288	+0.15%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0763	✗	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000300212	+0.27%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0774	✓	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000305419	+0.30%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0046	✗	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000321968	+0.30%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0354	✗	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000315665	+0.37%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0157	✓	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000410599	-0.00%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2519	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000368116	+0.14%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.0957	✓	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000324775	+0.33%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0903	✓	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000328603	+0.21%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0055	✗	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000293128	+0.35%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1340	✓	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000228485	+0.79%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2621	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000240512	+0.76%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0569	✗	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000208974	+1.15%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1205	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000214973	+1.16%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0237	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000215738	+1.52%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1366	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000224405	+1.22%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1860	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.0002671	+0.83%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1311	✗	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000270809	+0.78%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0407	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000256325	+1.07%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0147	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000274461	+0.94%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0419	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.00031123	+0.53%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0186	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000345901	+0.32%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.1027	✗	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000411911	-0.38%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0923	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000352595	+0.08%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1585	✓	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000346153	+0.25%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0028	✓	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000346922	+0.41%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0343	✗	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000392905	-0.05%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0859	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000409869	-0.18%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0350	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000404341	-0.11%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0152	✗	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000361961	+0.29%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1102	✓	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000406244	+0.11%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1387	✗	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000446802	-0.09%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0169	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000509165	-0.18%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1090	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000522044	-0.18%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0035	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.0005408	-0.20%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0264	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000525175	-0.14%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0328	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000569886	-0.20%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0568	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.00058095	-0.18%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0433	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000549762	-0.04%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0270	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000600195	-0.08%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0938	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000649745	-0.18%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0887	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000554946	+0.03%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1627	✓	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000581078	+0.03%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0348	✗	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000579347	+0.08%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0084	✓	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000654797	-0.05%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0702	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000688136	-0.14%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0460	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000666877	-0.06%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0187	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000628648	+0.04%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0401	✓	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000627915	+0.05%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0133	✗	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000589675	+0.20%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0356	✓	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000574329	+0.32%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0031	✓	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000621745	+0.20%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0619	✗	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000602541	+0.34%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0009	✓	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000617404	+0.31%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0107	✗	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000591571	+0.47%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0383	✓	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000630334	+0.42%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0777	✗	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000615803	+0.57%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0168	✓	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000596148	+0.75%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0350	✓	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000620115	+0.78%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0514	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000685469	+0.55%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0824	✗	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000687427	+0.65%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0065	✗	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000694884	+0.75%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0245	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000711154	+0.79%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0360	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000624187	+1.43%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0634	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.000633412	+1.43%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0117	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000747274	+0.96%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1431	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000820652	+0.82%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1356	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000889998	+0.56%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0498	✗	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001045	+0.16%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1209	✗	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.00103	+0.22%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0128	✓	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001099	+0.09%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0187	✗	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001226	-0.05%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1213	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.00132	-0.15%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0593	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001343	-0.12%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0596	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001313	-0.04%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0183	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001434	-0.08%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1123	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.00148	-0.09%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0290	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001499	-0.09%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0505	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001576	-0.13%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0191	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001593	-0.13%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0576	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001582	-0.12%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1164	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.001535	-0.09%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1463	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001555	-0.10%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0000	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001532	-0.08%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0184	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001596	-0.12%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0290	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001616	-0.13%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0342	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001623	-0.13%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0925	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001517	-0.04%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.0961	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001477	+0.03%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0152	✗	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001585	+0.00%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1358	✗	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001776	-0.10%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.1019	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001699	-0.06%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0918	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.002033	-0.29%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0264	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.00239	-1.13%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.1159	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001626	-0.23%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3744	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001669	-0.42%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0339	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001291	-0.03%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3010	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001508	-0.21%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1865	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001373	-0.15%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2904	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001546	-0.30%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0426	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001475	-0.27%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1017	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001582	-0.41%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0475	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.00169	-0.44%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1114	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001552	-0.28%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0023	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001932	-0.63%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1785	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001648	-0.30%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.0933	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001825	-0.54%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0036	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001745	-0.39%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0370	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001645	-0.48%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3066	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002343	-2.54%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1779	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001514	-0.38%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4424	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001656	-0.53%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.1062	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001686	-0.46%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0638	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.00176	-0.69%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0358	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001655	-0.61%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.0942	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001828	-1.02%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0830	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001977	-1.47%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0638	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001806	-0.68%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0798	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001763	-0.42%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0248	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002035	-1.21%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1473	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001546	+0.41%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2636	✓	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001376	+0.72%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1200	✓	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001889	-0.21%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.3041	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002276	-0.59%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.2017	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002255	-0.40%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0018	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002684	-0.73%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1772	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002837	-1.23%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0318	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002608	-2.85%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1204	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004708	-1.77%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5417	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004914	-2.00%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0056	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006348	-2.05%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2377	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.005118	-1.72%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.1981	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001541	+0.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.00133	+0.43%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.1297	✓	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001319	+0.02%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0359	✗	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001723	+0.07%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.2647	✗	1.00