DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 501

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

149

of 167 predictions shown

direction hit

68.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2666

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1005

actual -0.1597

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	1.9885	2.0804	+4.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.9054	+3.70%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	3.0708	+0.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	3.2009	-4.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	2.9948	-16.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	10.5904	-9.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	0.418973	-81.86%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	0.508861	-82.94%	1.9885	-33.34%	1.3492	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	0.707916	-82.65%	1.8375	-54.96%	0.9558	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	0.974247	-82.31%	3.069	-44.27%	1.1463	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	2.5073	-72.58%	3.3675	-63.17%	0.3151	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	10.8208	-37.27%	3.591	-79.18%	1.0844	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	4.4827	-73.18%	11.643	-30.34%	0.9672	✓	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	2.8255	-83.54%	2.3095	-86.54%	0.2069	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	4.3585	-82.22%	2.983	-87.83%	0.3585	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	13.9841	-67.89%	4.08	-90.63%	1.2029	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	62.8147	-26.50%	5.507	-93.56%	2.3863	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000370214	-1.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000373941	-1.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249143	-0.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268354	-0.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000306375	-0.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000269656	-0.20%	–	pending	–	–	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000280289	-0.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000308449	-0.56%	0.000375	+20.89%	0.1480	✗	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.000300244	-0.42%	0.0003798	+25.97%	0.1705	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.00027886	+0.02%	0.0002495	-10.51%	0.1716	✗	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000302052	-0.28%	0.000269	-11.19%	0.1739	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000303828	-0.19%	0.0003089	+1.48%	0.0426	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330396	-0.48%	0.0002702	-18.61%	0.1873	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000307237	-0.09%	0.000281	-8.62%	0.0603	✓	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000325928	-0.27%	0.0003102	-5.08%	0.0566	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000300293	+0.30%	0.0003015	+0.70%	0.0171	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.00030574	+0.41%	0.0002788	-8.44%	0.0415	✗	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000322121	+0.35%	0.0003029	-5.64%	0.0019	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000316564	+0.66%	0.0003044	-3.21%	0.0209	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.000407617	-0.73%	0.000332	-19.14%	0.1779	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000367255	-0.09%	0.0003075	-16.35%	0.1660	✓	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000326105	+0.74%	0.0003268	+0.96%	0.0079	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000329801	+0.58%	0.0002994	-8.69%	0.0897	✗	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.000295421	+1.14%	0.0003045	+4.25%	0.0467	✓	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000233383	+2.95%	0.000321	+41.60%	0.3345	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000245589	+2.89%	0.0003145	+31.76%	0.2664	✓	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000217319	+5.19%	0.0004106	+98.74%	0.6297	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000223665	+5.25%	0.0003676	+72.99%	0.5183	✓	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000229155	+7.84%	0.0003237	+52.33%	0.2900	✓	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000233906	+5.51%	0.0003279	+47.90%	0.4741	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000273178	+3.12%	0.0002921	+10.27%	0.2134	✓	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000276131	+2.77%	0.0002267	-15.63%	0.0114	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000264896	+4.45%	0.0002387	-5.88%	0.0242	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000281586	+3.56%	0.0002066	-24.02%	0.0997	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000313063	+1.12%	0.0002125	-31.36%	0.0819	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000345457	+0.19%	0.0002125	-38.37%	0.0234	✓	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000405261	-1.99%	0.0002217	-46.38%	0.2835	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.0003498	-0.71%	0.0002649	-24.81%	0.0181	✓	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.00034497	-0.10%	0.0002687	-22.18%	0.0764	✓	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000347634	+0.62%	0.0002536	-26.60%	0.1337	✗	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000388519	-1.17%	0.0002719	-30.83%	0.1718	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000404342	-1.52%	0.0003096	-24.60%	0.1718	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000399364	-1.34%	0.0003448	-14.82%	0.0590	✓	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000361072	+0.05%	0.0004135	+14.57%	0.1389	✓	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000402774	-0.75%	0.0003523	-13.18%	0.1495	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000439843	-1.65%	0.0003453	-22.79%	0.1615	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000500153	-1.95%	0.0003455	-32.27%	0.2282	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000512932	-1.92%	0.0003931	-24.84%	0.1547	✓	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000531184	-1.98%	0.0004106	-24.23%	0.1466	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000516372	-1.81%	0.0004048	-23.03%	0.1334	✓	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000560161	-1.90%	0.0003609	-36.80%	0.3048	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000571087	-1.88%	0.0004058	-30.27%	0.2188	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000541856	-1.48%	0.0004472	-18.69%	0.2199	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000591312	-1.56%	0.0005101	-15.08%	0.2039	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000639735	-1.72%	0.000523	-19.65%	0.2965	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000548184	-1.19%	0.0005419	-2.33%	0.1211	✓	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.00057411	-1.17%	0.0005259	-9.47%	0.1875	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000573043	-1.01%	0.000571	-1.36%	0.1267	✓	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000646559	-1.30%	0.000582	-11.16%	0.1405	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000679413	-1.41%	0.00055	-20.19%	0.1531	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000659542	-1.16%	0.0006007	-9.98%	0.0797	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000623002	-0.86%	0.0006509	+3.58%	0.0487	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000622726	-0.78%	0.0005548	-11.60%	0.1278	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000586651	-0.31%	0.0005809	-1.29%	0.0597	✓	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000573348	+0.15%	0.0005789	+1.12%	0.0728	✗	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000619157	-0.22%	0.0006551	+5.58%	0.0615	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000602401	+0.32%	0.0006891	+14.75%	0.0106	✗	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000616958	+0.24%	0.0006673	+8.42%	0.0000	✓	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.00059396	+0.88%	0.0006284	+6.73%	0.0039	✓	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000632538	+0.77%	0.0006276	-0.02%	0.0566	✗	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.00062116	+1.45%	0.0005885	-3.89%	0.0829	✗	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000605118	+2.27%	0.0005725	-3.24%	0.0533	✗	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.00063034	+2.44%	0.0006205	+0.85%	0.0397	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000691642	+1.46%	0.0006005	-11.91%	0.1084	✗	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000696463	+1.97%	0.0006155	-9.88%	0.1063	✗	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000707394	+2.57%	0.0005888	-14.63%	0.1715	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000725781	+2.86%	0.0006277	-11.04%	0.1265	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000654913	+6.42%	0.0006123	-0.50%	0.1060	✗	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.000664662	+6.43%	0.0005917	-5.25%	0.1478	✗	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000767125	+3.64%	0.0006153	-16.87%	0.2112	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000837896	+2.94%	0.0006817	-16.25%	0.2543	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000898924	+1.57%	0.000683	-22.82%	0.2851	✗	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.00104	-0.32%	0.0006897	-33.87%	0.3688	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001027	-0.14%	0.0007056	-31.36%	0.3279	✓	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.00109	-0.77%	0.0006154	-43.95%	0.4168	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001211	-1.34%	0.0006245	-49.10%	0.5340	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001299	-1.75%	0.0007402	-44.01%	0.4577	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001323	-1.67%	0.000814	-39.48%	0.3914	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001296	-1.36%	0.000885	-32.65%	0.3328	✓	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001413	-1.50%	0.001043	-27.32%	0.3257	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001459	-1.49%	0.001028	-30.59%	0.3706	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001477	-1.52%	0.001098	-26.80%	0.3066	✓	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001552	-1.67%	0.001227	-22.24%	0.2032	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001569	-1.65%	0.001322	-17.12%	0.2023	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.00156	-1.51%	0.001345	-15.09%	0.2570	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.001514	-1.46%	0.001314	-14.45%	0.1423	✓	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001533	-1.51%	0.001435	-7.84%	0.0233	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001511	-1.46%	0.001481	-3.39%	0.0230	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001572	-1.63%	0.0015	-6.13%	0.0679	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001591	-1.64%	0.001578	-2.47%	0.0887	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.0016	-1.56%	0.001595	-1.85%	0.1157	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001498	-1.29%	0.001584	+4.35%	0.1140	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001462	-1.02%	0.001536	+3.99%	0.0528	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001567	-1.15%	0.001557	-1.77%	0.1906	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.001749	-1.65%	0.001533	-13.78%	0.3061	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001674	-1.55%	0.001598	-6.00%	0.1917	✓	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.001989	-2.43%	0.001618	-20.65%	0.1766	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002328	-3.66%	0.001625	-32.77%	0.1914	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001596	-2.09%	0.001518	-6.87%	0.0557	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001634	-2.53%	0.001477	-11.87%	0.1089	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001272	-1.48%	0.001585	+22.77%	0.5547	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001479	-2.12%	0.001778	+17.67%	0.4835	✗	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001345	-2.18%	0.0017	+23.64%	0.7541	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001507	-2.81%	0.002039	+31.46%	0.6948	✗	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001436	-2.90%	0.002417	+63.42%	0.9168	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001531	-3.56%	0.00163	+2.64%	0.6279	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001636	-3.60%	0.001676	-1.24%	0.4531	✗	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.001508	-3.12%	0.001291	-17.03%	0.1142	✗	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001866	-4.01%	0.001511	-22.27%	0.1349	✗	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001601	-3.13%	0.001375	-16.82%	0.0909	✓	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001762	-3.98%	0.001551	-15.48%	0.0451	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001693	-3.38%	0.001479	-15.58%	0.1911	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001585	-4.09%	0.001588	-3.93%	0.0287	✓	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002219	-7.68%	0.001697	-29.41%	0.0152	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001465	-3.64%	0.001556	+2.37%	0.3904	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001597	-4.06%	0.001944	+16.76%	0.4622	✗	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001631	-3.73%	0.001653	-2.42%	0.3129	✗	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.001693	-4.46%	0.001835	+3.56%	0.3503	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001589	-4.58%	0.001752	+5.23%	0.2047	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.001739	-5.87%	0.001653	-10.50%	0.0178	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001872	-6.69%	0.002404	+19.84%	0.2859	✗	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001743	-4.14%	0.00152	-16.39%	0.1222	✓	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001715	-3.15%	0.001665	-5.99%	0.0163	✓	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.001965	-4.63%	0.001694	-17.77%	0.1317	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001549	+0.60%	0.001772	+15.06%	0.1119	✓	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001385	+1.42%	0.001665	+21.89%	0.1427	✓	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.001846	-2.51%	0.001847	-2.43%	0.0305	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002204	-3.76%	0.002006	-12.40%	0.1467	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002183	-3.59%	0.001818	-19.70%	0.2236	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.00257	-4.97%	0.001771	-34.50%	0.4143	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002657	-7.50%	0.00206	-28.27%	0.2719	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002273	-15.31%	0.00154	-42.62%	0.3599	✓	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004334	-9.57%	0.001366	-71.50%	1.1122	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004489	-10.47%	0.001893	-62.25%	0.8218	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.005918	-8.69%	0.00229	-64.67%	0.8923	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.004788	-8.05%	0.002264	-56.52%	0.7163	✓	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001545	+0.39%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001337	+0.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.001302	-1.29%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001703	-1.08%	–	pending	–	–	1.00