DUST

Dust Protocol · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #962
symbol: DUST
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb5b1b659da79a2507c27aad509f15b4874edc0cc
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2025-09-20
predictions: 504

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

165

of 168 predictions shown

direction hit

60.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1210

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0196

actual -0.0341

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	1.3825	1.1644	-15.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2026-10-21	oos	1.287	1.0719	-16.71%	1.3825	+7.42%	0.2521	✗	1.00
2026-10-20	oos	1.8375	1.5578	-15.22%	1.287	-29.96%	0.2040	✓	1.00
2026-10-19	oos	3.069	2.6658	-13.14%	1.8375	-40.13%	0.3855	✓	1.00
2026-10-18	oos	3.3675	2.897	-13.97%	3.069	-8.86%	0.0597	✓	1.00
2026-10-17	oos	3.591	3.0709	-14.48%	3.3675	-6.22%	0.0846	✓	1.00
2026-10-16	oos	11.643	10.3818	-10.83%	3.591	-69.16%	1.0602	✓	1.00
2026-10-15	oos	2.3095	1.9225	-16.76%	11.643	+404.14%	1.8087	✗	1.00
2026-10-14	oos	2.983	2.486	-16.66%	2.3095	-22.58%	0.0804	✓	1.00
2026-10-13	oos	4.08	3.4042	-16.56%	2.983	-26.89%	0.1134	✓	1.00
2026-10-12	oos	5.507	4.6206	-16.10%	4.08	-25.91%	0.1409	✓	1.00
2026-10-11	oos	9.143	7.7487	-15.25%	5.507	-39.77%	0.3181	✓	1.00
2026-10-10	oos	17.2505	15.2155	-11.80%	9.143	-47.00%	0.5185	✓	1.00
2026-10-09	oos	16.7145	14.5579	-12.90%	17.2505	+3.21%	0.1653	✗	1.00
2026-10-08	oos	17.1645	14.8973	-13.21%	16.7145	-2.62%	0.1047	✓	1.00
2026-10-07	oos	24.5085	21.6181	-11.79%	17.1645	-29.97%	0.2115	✓	1.00
2026-10-06	oos	43.547	39.9191	-8.33%	24.5085	-43.72%	0.4610	✓	1.00
2026-10-05	oos	85.4585	81.7902	-4.29%	43.547	-49.04%	0.6279	✓	1.00
2026-03-05	oos	0.000375	0.000372313	-0.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.23
2026-03-04	oos	0.0003798	0.000375683	-1.08%	0.000375	-1.26%	0.0288	✗	1.22
2026-03-03	oos	0.0002495	0.000249072	-0.17%	0.0003798	+52.22%	0.3655	✗	0.91
2026-03-02	oos	0.000269	0.000268468	-0.20%	0.0002495	-7.25%	0.0667	✓	0.91
2026-03-01	oos	0.0003089	0.000307813	-0.35%	0.000269	-12.92%	0.1798	✓	0.99
2026-02-28	oos	0.0002702	0.000269732	-0.17%	0.0003089	+14.32%	0.1531	✗	0.97
2026-02-27	oos	0.000281	0.000280483	-0.18%	0.0002702	-3.84%	0.0537	✓	0.98
2026-02-26	oos	0.0003102	0.000309269	-0.30%	0.000281	-9.41%	0.0723	✓	0.96
2026-02-25	oos	0.0003015	0.00030073	-0.26%	0.0003102	+2.89%	0.0382	✗	0.97
2026-02-24	oos	0.0002788	0.000278413	-0.14%	0.0003015	+8.14%	0.0241	✗	0.94
2026-02-23	oos	0.0003029	0.000302223	-0.22%	0.0002788	-7.96%	0.0727	✓	0.92
2026-02-22	oos	0.0003044	0.000303746	-0.21%	0.0003029	-0.49%	0.0398	✗	0.94
2026-02-21	oos	0.000332	0.000330849	-0.35%	0.0003044	-8.31%	0.0786	✓	0.95
2026-02-20	oos	0.0003075	0.000306818	-0.22%	0.000332	+7.97%	0.0793	✗	0.91
2026-02-19	oos	0.0003268	0.000325746	-0.32%	0.0003075	-5.91%	0.0716	✓	0.93
2026-02-18	oos	0.0002994	0.000298893	-0.17%	0.0003268	+9.15%	0.0818	✗	0.90
2026-02-17	oos	0.0003045	0.000303969	-0.17%	0.0002994	-1.67%	0.0002	✓	0.98
2026-02-16	oos	0.000321	0.000320184	-0.25%	0.0003045	-5.14%	0.0298	✓	1.00
2026-02-15	oos	0.0003145	0.000313867	-0.20%	0.000321	+2.07%	0.0215	✗	1.06
2026-02-14	oos	0.0004106	0.0004068	-0.93%	0.0003145	-23.40%	0.2426	✓	1.02
2026-02-13	oos	0.0003676	0.000365046	-0.69%	0.0004106	+11.70%	0.1041	✗	0.96
2026-02-12	oos	0.0003237	0.000322521	-0.36%	0.0003676	+13.56%	0.0972	✗	0.87
2026-02-11	oos	0.0003279	0.000326215	-0.51%	0.0003237	-1.28%	0.0018	✓	0.78
2026-02-10	oos	0.0002921	0.00029134	-0.26%	0.0003279	+12.26%	0.1401	✗	0.84
2026-02-09	oos	0.0002267	0.000227445	+0.33%	0.0002921	+28.85%	0.2667	✓	0.88
2026-02-08	oos	0.0002387	0.000239418	+0.30%	0.0002267	-5.03%	0.0523	✗	0.89
2026-02-07	oos	0.0002066	0.000207989	+0.67%	0.0002387	+15.54%	0.1253	✓	0.84
2026-02-06	oos	0.0002125	0.000213972	+0.69%	0.0002066	-2.78%	0.0190	✗	0.87
2026-02-05	oos	0.0002125	0.000214525	+0.95%	0.0002125	+0.00%	0.1310	✗	1.05
2026-02-04	oos	0.0002217	0.000223377	+0.76%	0.0002125	-4.15%	0.1906	✓	1.60
2026-02-03	oos	0.0002649	0.000266129	+0.46%	0.0002217	-16.31%	0.1274	✗	1.54
2026-02-02	oos	0.0002687	0.000269961	+0.47%	0.0002649	-1.41%	0.0439	✓	1.61
2026-02-01	oos	0.0002536	0.000255347	+0.69%	0.0002687	+5.95%	0.0185	✓	1.43
2026-01-31	oos	0.0002719	0.000273547	+0.61%	0.0002536	-6.73%	0.0386	✗	1.65
2026-01-30	oos	0.0003096	0.000310621	+0.33%	0.0002719	-12.18%	0.0166	✗	1.73
2026-01-29	oos	0.0003448	0.000345297	+0.14%	0.0003096	-10.21%	0.1009	✗	1.71
2026-01-28	oos	0.0004135	0.000411749	-0.42%	0.0003448	-16.61%	0.0919	✓	1.60
2026-01-27	oos	0.0003523	0.000352684	+0.11%	0.0004135	+17.37%	0.1583	✓	1.59
2026-01-26	oos	0.0003453	0.000346132	+0.24%	0.0003523	+2.03%	0.0029	✓	1.51
2026-01-25	oos	0.0003455	0.000346651	+0.33%	0.0003453	-0.06%	0.0335	✗	1.53
2026-01-24	oos	0.0003931	0.000392977	-0.03%	0.0003455	-12.11%	0.0861	✓	1.49
2026-01-23	oos	0.0004106	0.000410026	-0.14%	0.0003931	-4.26%	0.0354	✓	1.54
2026-01-22	oos	0.0004048	0.000404453	-0.09%	0.0004106	+1.43%	0.0149	✗	1.54
2026-01-21	oos	0.0003609	0.000361784	+0.25%	0.0004048	+12.16%	0.1107	✓	1.49
2026-01-20	oos	0.0004058	0.000405708	-0.02%	0.0003609	-11.06%	0.1374	✓	1.72
2026-01-19	oos	0.0004472	0.000445422	-0.40%	0.0004058	-9.26%	0.0138	✓	1.69
2026-01-18	oos	0.0005101	0.000506997	-0.61%	0.0004472	-12.33%	0.1047	✓	1.80
2026-01-17	oos	0.000523	0.000519317	-0.70%	0.0005101	-2.47%	0.0087	✗	1.70
2026-01-16	oos	0.0005419	0.000537657	-0.78%	0.000523	-3.49%	0.0206	✓	1.70
2026-01-15	oos	0.0005259	0.000521892	-0.76%	0.0005419	+3.04%	0.0391	✗	1.66
2026-01-14	oos	0.000571	0.000565879	-0.90%	0.0005259	-7.90%	0.0498	✓	1.65
2026-01-13	oos	0.000582	0.000577114	-0.84%	0.000571	-1.89%	0.0367	✓	1.59
2026-01-12	oos	0.00055	0.000547032	-0.54%	0.000582	+5.82%	0.0221	✓	1.87
2026-01-11	oos	0.0006007	0.000597021	-0.61%	0.00055	-8.44%	0.0885	✓	1.88
2026-01-10	oos	0.0006509	0.000645927	-0.76%	0.0006007	-7.71%	0.0828	✓	1.86
2026-01-09	oos	0.0005548	0.000552476	-0.42%	0.0006509	+17.32%	0.1671	✗	2.04
2026-01-08	oos	0.0005809	0.000578201	-0.46%	0.0005548	-4.49%	0.0298	✓	2.04
2026-01-07	oos	0.0005789	0.000576432	-0.43%	0.0005809	+0.35%	0.0134	✗	2.04
2026-01-06	oos	0.0006551	0.000650595	-0.69%	0.0005789	-11.63%	0.0637	✓	2.01
2026-01-05	oos	0.0006891	0.000683577	-0.80%	0.0006551	-4.93%	0.0394	✓	2.01
2026-01-04	oos	0.0006673	0.000662953	-0.65%	0.0006891	+3.27%	0.0128	✓	2.01
2026-01-03	oos	0.0006284	0.000625589	-0.45%	0.0006673	+6.19%	0.0450	✗	1.99
2026-01-02	oos	0.0006276	0.000625175	-0.39%	0.0006284	+0.13%	0.0089	✓	1.99
2026-01-01	oos	0.0005885	0.000587617	-0.15%	0.0006276	+6.64%	0.0391	✗	1.96
2025-12-31	oos	0.0005725	0.000572462	-0.01%	0.0005885	+2.79%	0.0002	✗	1.95
2025-12-30	oos	0.0006205	0.000619633	-0.14%	0.0005725	-7.74%	0.0585	✓	2.02
2025-12-29	oos	0.0006005	0.000600697	+0.03%	0.0006205	+3.33%	0.0040	✓	1.94
2025-12-28	oos	0.0006155	0.000615666	+0.03%	0.0006005	-2.44%	0.0079	✗	1.95
2025-12-27	oos	0.0005888	0.000589961	+0.20%	0.0006155	+4.53%	0.0411	✓	1.68
2025-12-26	oos	0.0006277	0.000628617	+0.15%	0.0005888	-6.20%	0.0749	✗	1.62
2025-12-25	oos	0.0006123	0.000614032	+0.28%	0.0006277	+2.52%	0.0197	✓	1.62
2025-12-24	oos	0.0005917	0.000594227	+0.43%	0.0006123	+3.48%	0.0382	✓	1.65
2025-12-23	oos	0.0006153	0.000618008	+0.44%	0.0005917	-3.84%	0.0480	✗	2.18
2025-12-22	oos	0.0006817	0.000683637	+0.28%	0.0006153	-9.74%	0.0797	✗	2.00
2025-12-21	oos	0.000683	0.000685458	+0.36%	0.0006817	-0.19%	0.0036	✗	2.00
2025-12-20	oos	0.0006897	0.000692665	+0.43%	0.000683	-0.97%	0.0213	✗	2.04
2025-12-19	oos	0.0007056	0.000708858	+0.46%	0.0006897	-2.25%	0.0328	✗	2.06
2025-12-18	oos	0.0006154	0.000620702	+0.86%	0.0007056	+14.66%	0.0690	✓	1.95
2025-12-17	oos	0.0006245	0.00062997	+0.88%	0.0006154	-1.46%	0.0063	✓	1.96
2025-12-16	oos	0.0007402	0.000744347	+0.56%	0.0006245	-15.63%	0.1392	✗	1.92
2025-12-15	oos	0.000814	0.000817647	+0.45%	0.0007402	-9.07%	0.1319	✗	1.96
2025-12-14	oos	0.000885	0.000886995	+0.23%	0.000814	-8.02%	0.0464	✗	1.97
2025-12-13	oos	0.001043	0.001042	-0.07%	0.000885	-15.15%	0.1186	✓	1.92
2025-12-12	oos	0.001028	0.001027	-0.06%	0.001043	+1.46%	0.0156	✗	1.92
2025-12-11	oos	0.001098	0.001096	-0.17%	0.001028	-6.38%	0.0161	✓	1.94
2025-12-10	oos	0.001227	0.001224	-0.25%	0.001098	-10.51%	0.1193	✓	1.96
2025-12-09	oos	0.001322	0.001318	-0.31%	0.001227	-7.19%	0.0576	✓	1.95
2025-12-08	oos	0.001345	0.001341	-0.30%	0.001322	-1.71%	0.0579	✓	1.96
2025-12-07	oos	0.001314	0.001311	-0.26%	0.001345	+2.36%	0.0205	✗	1.95
2025-12-06	oos	0.001435	0.001431	-0.30%	0.001314	-8.43%	0.1101	✓	1.98
2025-12-05	oos	0.001481	0.001476	-0.31%	0.001435	-3.11%	0.0267	✓	1.98
2025-12-04	oos	0.0015	0.001495	-0.33%	0.001481	-1.27%	0.0529	✗	2.06
2025-12-03	oos	0.001578	0.001572	-0.39%	0.0015	-4.94%	0.0165	✓	2.07
2025-12-02	oos	0.001595	0.001589	-0.39%	0.001578	-1.07%	0.0550	✓	2.08
2025-12-01	oos	0.001584	0.001578	-0.37%	0.001595	+0.69%	0.1139	✓	2.20
2025-11-30	oos	0.001536	0.001531	-0.34%	0.001584	+3.12%	0.1488	✗	2.48
2025-11-29	oos	0.001557	0.001551	-0.35%	0.001536	-1.35%	0.0025	✓	2.48
2025-11-28	oos	0.001533	0.001528	-0.33%	0.001557	+1.57%	0.0209	✗	2.48
2025-11-27	oos	0.001598	0.001592	-0.38%	0.001533	-4.07%	0.0264	✓	2.48
2025-11-26	oos	0.001618	0.001612	-0.39%	0.001598	-1.24%	0.0315	✓	2.47
2025-11-25	oos	0.001625	0.001619	-0.37%	0.001618	-0.43%	0.0901	✓	2.53
2025-11-24	oos	0.001518	0.001514	-0.28%	0.001625	+7.05%	0.0985	✗	2.57
2025-11-23	oos	0.001477	0.001474	-0.21%	0.001518	+2.78%	0.0128	✓	2.54
2025-11-22	oos	0.001585	0.001581	-0.24%	0.001477	-6.81%	0.1333	✓	2.63
2025-11-21	oos	0.001778	0.00177	-0.44%	0.001585	-10.85%	0.0986	✓	2.63
2025-11-20	oos	0.0017	0.001693	-0.38%	0.001778	+4.59%	0.0950	✗	2.70
2025-11-19	oos	0.002039	0.002021	-0.87%	0.0017	-16.63%	0.0206	✓	2.76
2025-11-18	oos	0.002417	0.002368	-2.03%	0.002039	-15.64%	0.1068	✓	2.71
2025-11-17	oos	0.00163	0.001622	-0.49%	0.002417	+48.28%	0.3769	✗	2.49
2025-11-16	oos	0.001676	0.001665	-0.68%	0.00163	-2.74%	0.0365	✗	2.57
2025-11-15	oos	0.001291	0.001289	-0.14%	0.001676	+29.82%	0.3022	✗	2.77
2025-11-14	oos	0.001511	0.001506	-0.35%	0.001291	-14.56%	0.1851	✓	2.85
2025-11-13	oos	0.001375	0.001371	-0.28%	0.001511	+9.89%	0.2916	✗	3.69
2025-11-12	oos	0.001551	0.001544	-0.47%	0.001375	-11.35%	0.0408	✓	3.72
2025-11-11	oos	0.001479	0.001473	-0.41%	0.001551	+4.87%	0.1031	✗	3.84
2025-11-10	oos	0.001588	0.001579	-0.56%	0.001479	-6.86%	0.0491	✗	4.03
2025-11-09	oos	0.001697	0.001686	-0.63%	0.001588	-6.42%	0.1094	✓	4.05
2025-11-08	oos	0.001556	0.00155	-0.40%	0.001697	+9.06%	0.0011	✓	3.95
2025-11-07	oos	0.001944	0.001927	-0.89%	0.001556	-19.96%	0.1759	✓	3.89
2025-11-06	oos	0.001653	0.001646	-0.43%	0.001944	+17.60%	0.0947	✗	3.68
2025-11-05	oos	0.001835	0.001822	-0.72%	0.001653	-9.92%	0.0017	✓	3.80
2025-11-04	oos	0.001752	0.001741	-0.62%	0.001835	+4.74%	0.0346	✓	3.73
2025-11-03	oos	0.001653	0.001643	-0.62%	0.001752	+5.99%	0.3079	✗	4.98
2025-11-02	oos	0.002404	0.002344	-2.49%	0.001653	-31.24%	0.1785	✓	4.66
2025-11-01	oos	0.00152	0.001514	-0.40%	0.002404	+58.16%	0.4427	✗	4.51
2025-10-31	oos	0.001665	0.001656	-0.51%	0.00152	-8.71%	0.1064	✓	4.51
2025-10-30	oos	0.001694	0.001685	-0.51%	0.001665	-1.71%	0.0634	✓	4.47
2025-10-29	oos	0.001772	0.00176	-0.67%	0.001694	-4.40%	0.0356	✗	4.68
2025-10-28	oos	0.001665	0.001653	-0.69%	0.001772	+6.43%	0.0950	✗	1.00
2025-10-27	oos	0.001847	0.00183	-0.94%	0.001665	-9.85%	0.0839	✓	1.00
2025-10-26	oos	0.002006	0.001982	-1.20%	0.001847	-7.93%	0.0665	✓	1.00
2025-10-25	oos	0.001818	0.001802	-0.87%	0.002006	+10.34%	0.0817	✗	1.00
2025-10-24	oos	0.001771	0.001756	-0.87%	0.001818	+2.65%	0.0293	✗	1.00
2025-10-23	oos	0.00206	0.002036	-1.14%	0.001771	-14.03%	0.1480	✓	1.00
2025-10-22	oos	0.00154	0.001526	-0.90%	0.00206	+33.77%	0.2767	✗	1.00
2025-10-21	oos	0.001366	0.001344	-1.61%	0.00154	+12.74%	0.1433	✗	1.00
2025-10-20	oos	0.001893	0.00187	-1.23%	0.001366	-27.84%	0.2938	✓	1.00
2025-10-19	oos	0.00229	0.002265	-1.10%	0.001893	-17.34%	0.1966	✓	1.00
2025-10-18	oos	0.002264	0.002239	-1.11%	0.00229	+1.15%	0.0090	✓	1.00
2025-10-17	oos	0.002704	0.002674	-1.10%	0.002264	-16.27%	0.1736	✓	1.00
2025-10-16	oos	0.002872	0.002835	-1.29%	0.002704	-5.85%	0.0312	✓	1.00
2025-10-15	oos	0.002684	0.002644	-1.49%	0.002872	+7.00%	0.1065	✗	1.00
2025-10-14	oos	0.004793	0.004724	-1.45%	0.002684	-44.00%	0.5451	✓	1.00
2025-10-13	oos	0.005014	0.004936	-1.55%	0.004793	-4.41%	0.0101	✓	1.00
2025-10-12	oos	0.006481	0.006357	-1.92%	0.005014	-22.64%	0.2391	✓	1.00
2025-10-11	oos	0.005207	0.005125	-1.57%	0.006481	+24.47%	0.1967	✗	1.00
2025-10-02	oos	0.001539	0.001432	-6.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.00
2025-10-01	oos	0.001324	0.001202	-9.22%	0.001539	+16.24%	0.2309	✗	1.00
2025-09-30	oos	0.001319	0.0012	-9.03%	0.001324	+0.38%	0.0590	✓	1.00
2025-09-29	oos	0.001722	0.001601	-7.04%	0.001319	-23.40%	0.1910	✓	1.00