DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

131

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

52.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1621

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0355

actual +0.0604

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.376045	-2.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.387627	-2.79%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.387959	-2.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.372554	-2.44%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.39076	-3.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.375837	-2.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.39663	-3.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.401983	-3.46%	0.386075	-7.28%	0.0595	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.431228	-4.35%	0.398745	-11.56%	0.0756	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.419163	-4.91%	0.39882	-9.52%	0.0514	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.470072	-5.29%	0.38187	-23.06%	0.1762	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.509683	-5.37%	0.403015	-25.18%	0.2049	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.486611	-5.65%	0.387205	-24.93%	0.2081	✓	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.41288	-5.46%	0.41127	-5.83%	0.0121	✓	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.357702	-4.24%	0.416385	+11.47%	0.1866	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.387241	-4.99%	0.450845	+10.61%	0.1993	✗	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.390138	-5.32%	0.4408	+6.97%	0.2000	✗	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.393495	-5.63%	0.49633	+19.04%	0.2865	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.362053	-5.85%	0.538615	+40.07%	0.4325	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.371778	-6.22%	0.515775	+30.10%	0.3653	✗	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.369344	-6.54%	0.436745	+10.52%	0.2286	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.362912	-6.91%	0.373545	-4.18%	0.0343	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.353572	-7.37%	0.407595	+6.79%	0.1063	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.340205	-7.93%	0.41208	+11.52%	0.1500	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.402109	-7.61%	0.41695	-4.20%	0.0032	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.381251	-7.68%	0.38453	-6.88%	0.0032	✓	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.410519	-7.59%	0.39644	-10.76%	0.0415	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.418912	-7.66%	0.395175	-12.89%	0.0656	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.441317	-9.21%	0.38983	-19.80%	0.1111	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.400529	-8.20%	0.381685	-12.52%	0.0062	✓	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.372806	-7.79%	0.36952	-8.60%	0.0436	✓	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.358795	-8.36%	0.43524	+11.17%	0.1315	✗	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.386433	-13.45%	0.412955	-7.51%	0.0082	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.271612	-7.99%	0.44425	+50.50%	0.4323	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.236771	-7.18%	0.45364	+77.84%	0.5054	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.220175	-9.97%	0.48606	+98.74%	0.6436	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.134317	-1.99%	0.436315	+218.36%	0.9996	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.138589	-1.70%	0.4043	+186.77%	0.9296	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.14066	-2.02%	0.391515	+172.72%	0.9463	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.146824	-2.07%	0.446505	+197.83%	1.0425	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.145707	-1.88%	0.29519	+98.77%	0.6421	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.144902	-1.90%	0.25509	+72.70%	0.5689	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.151161	-1.90%	0.24457	+58.71%	0.5188	✗	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.160055	-2.36%	0.13705	-16.40%	0.1047	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.154531	-1.88%	0.140985	-10.49%	0.0756	✓	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.161963	-1.92%	0.14356	-13.07%	0.0578	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.167052	-3.01%	0.14992	-12.96%	0.0629	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.147553	-1.39%	0.148505	-0.76%	0.0523	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.15592	-1.66%	0.147705	-6.85%	0.0316	✗	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.141182	-1.76%	0.154095	+7.23%	0.0686	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.140596	-1.57%	0.16393	+14.76%	0.1332	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.150991	-1.80%	0.1575	+2.44%	0.0338	✗	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.152759	-2.28%	0.16514	+5.64%	0.0352	✗	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.166434	-3.18%	0.17224	+0.20%	0.0124	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.16344	-3.54%	0.14964	-11.69%	0.1134	✓	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.169237	-4.11%	0.15856	-10.16%	0.0782	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.160084	-4.09%	0.14371	-13.90%	0.0846	✓	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.144162	-2.62%	0.14284	-3.51%	0.0059	✓	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.154876	-5.46%	0.153755	-6.14%	0.0018	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.127912	-2.42%	0.15632	+19.25%	0.2013	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112014	-1.17%	0.1719	+51.67%	0.4143	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.116318	-2.16%	0.16944	+42.53%	0.3818	✗	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.097709	-0.78%	0.17649	+79.22%	0.5287	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.09681	-1.90%	0.166915	+69.13%	0.4495	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.091291	-2.34%	0.14804	+58.37%	0.3435	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.0934	-2.47%	0.163815	+71.06%	0.4144	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.09943	-3.94%	0.13109	+26.64%	0.0992	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.090996	-2.13%	0.11334	+21.90%	0.0513	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.090762	-2.13%	0.11888	+28.19%	0.0873	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.0929	-2.19%	0.098475	+3.68%	0.0590	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.096329	-2.34%	0.09869	+0.05%	0.0501	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.095463	-2.22%	0.093475	-4.26%	0.0360	✓	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.091486	-2.01%	0.095765	+2.57%	0.0383	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.094918	-2.22%	0.10351	+6.63%	0.1128	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.095163	-2.26%	0.092975	-4.50%	0.0012	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.094707	-2.25%	0.09274	-4.28%	0.0039	✓	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.095386	-2.47%	0.09498	-2.89%	0.0068	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.098213	-2.64%	0.09864	-2.22%	0.0199	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.098817	-2.81%	0.097635	-3.97%	0.0052	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.094597	-2.64%	0.093365	-3.91%	0.0189	✓	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.096911	-2.80%	0.09707	-2.64%	0.0158	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.102262	-3.30%	0.09736	-7.94%	0.0784	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.110846	-5.00%	0.096885	-16.97%	0.1630	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.091755	-2.98%	0.097805	+3.42%	0.0719	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.094001	-2.77%	0.100875	+4.34%	0.0578	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.100408	-2.67%	0.10167	-1.44%	0.0088	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.103006	-2.67%	0.09716	-8.20%	0.0542	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.111278	-2.88%	0.0997	-12.98%	0.0778	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.11035	-2.92%	0.105755	-6.97%	0.0152	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.111629	-2.91%	0.116685	+1.48%	0.0669	✗	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.115412	-3.11%	0.094575	-20.60%	0.1934	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.117705	-3.20%	0.09668	-20.49%	0.1591	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.116116	-3.19%	0.10316	-13.99%	0.0724	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.119454	-3.44%	0.105835	-14.45%	0.0932	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.118814	-3.46%	0.114575	-6.90%	0.0484	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.121674	-3.51%	0.113675	-9.85%	0.0588	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.125288	-3.57%	0.11498	-11.50%	0.0895	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.130435	-3.58%	0.119115	-11.95%	0.1156	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.14016	-3.90%	0.121595	-16.63%	0.1674	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.146883	-5.36%	0.11994	-22.72%	0.2306	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.113477	-2.92%	0.123715	+5.83%	0.0540	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.119553	-3.06%	0.12307	-0.21%	0.0195	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.120255	-3.04%	0.1261	+1.68%	0.0371	✗	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.11423	-2.96%	0.129925	+10.37%	0.1311	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.111164	-2.80%	0.135285	+18.29%	0.1903	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.10619	-2.62%	0.145845	+33.74%	0.2930	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.107623	-2.64%	0.1552	+40.40%	0.3502	✗	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.110552	-2.73%	0.116895	+2.86%	0.0723	✗	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.109216	-2.64%	0.12333	+9.94%	0.1201	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.105025	-2.46%	0.12402	+15.19%	0.1599	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.107544	-2.51%	0.11772	+6.72%	0.0748	✗	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.109363	-2.45%	0.11437	+2.02%	0.0268	✗	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.104796	-2.35%	0.10905	+1.61%	0.0161	✓	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.110701	-2.56%	0.11054	-2.70%	0.0648	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.103338	-2.22%	0.11365	+7.54%	0.0386	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.099091	-2.54%	0.11218	+10.34%	0.0642	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.08575	-1.80%	0.10767	+23.31%	0.1812	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.081611	-1.63%	0.11031	+32.97%	0.2602	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.081718	-1.59%	0.112105	+35.00%	0.2868	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.081393	-1.67%	0.10732	+29.65%	0.2934	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.08455	-1.87%	0.11361	+31.86%	0.3635	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.085608	-1.91%	0.10568	+21.09%	0.2717	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.089074	-1.90%	0.10167	+11.98%	0.1936	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.096431	-2.14%	0.08732	-11.38%	0.0301	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.093216	-2.01%	0.08296	-12.79%	0.0603	✓	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.092233	-1.95%	0.08304	-11.73%	0.0532	✓	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.095924	-2.04%	0.082775	-15.47%	0.0922	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.098435	-1.99%	0.08616	-14.21%	0.0868	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.099858	-2.10%	0.087275	-14.44%	0.0990	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.098785	-2.07%	0.090795	-9.99%	0.0460	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.09873	-2.02%	0.098535	-2.22%	0.0012	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.10021	-1.92%	0.09513	-6.89%	0.0510	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.102352	-1.91%	0.09407	-9.84%	0.0736	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.097036	-1.59%	0.09792	-0.69%	0.0386	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.10325	-1.72%	0.10043	-4.41%	0.0895	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.108953	-2.19%	0.102	-8.43%	0.1156	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.101523	-2.05%	0.10087	-2.68%	0.0437	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.09012	-1.54%	0.10077	+10.10%	0.0545	✗	1.00