DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

108

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

29.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4496

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0644

actual +0.3218

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.352605	-8.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.364268	-8.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.363965	-8.74%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.348971	-8.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.364936	-9.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.349791	-9.66%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.368646	-10.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.374684	-10.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.398963	-11.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.38282	-13.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.429328	-13.50%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.465537	-13.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.444072	-13.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.375824	-13.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.327066	-12.44%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.354816	-12.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.35662	-13.46%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.359286	-13.83%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.327769	-14.76%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.335466	-15.38%	–	pending	–	–	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.332478	-15.87%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.324246	-16.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.31397	-17.74%	–	pending	–	–	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.299632	-18.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.357353	-17.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.338095	-18.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.364978	-17.84%	–	pending	–	–	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.374535	-17.44%	–	pending	–	–	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.39555	-18.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.36408	-16.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.341894	-15.44%	0.386075	-4.51%	0.1870	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.322424	-17.65%	0.398745	+1.85%	0.1790	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.346309	-22.44%	0.39882	-10.68%	0.1300	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.246843	-16.38%	0.38187	+29.36%	0.4151	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.21665	-15.07%	0.403015	+57.99%	0.5283	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.201313	-17.69%	0.387205	+58.32%	0.5559	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.129174	-5.75%	0.41127	+200.09%	1.0453	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.134964	-4.27%	0.416385	+195.34%	1.0681	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.136016	-5.26%	0.450845	+214.05%	1.0878	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.142504	-4.95%	0.4408	+194.02%	1.0508	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.142167	-4.27%	0.49633	+234.22%	1.1394	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.141273	-4.35%	0.538615	+264.66%	1.2290	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.148374	-3.71%	0.515775	+234.71%	1.1740	✗	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.156333	-4.63%	0.436745	+166.42%	0.9723	✗	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.15219	-3.37%	0.373545	+137.17%	0.8264	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.160675	-2.70%	0.407595	+146.82%	0.8435	✗	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.165873	-3.70%	0.41208	+139.25%	0.8110	✗	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.148093	-1.03%	0.41695	+178.64%	0.9150	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.157828	-0.46%	0.38453	+142.51%	0.8306	✗	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.140024	-2.57%	0.39644	+175.86%	0.9063	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.1401	-1.92%	0.395175	+176.66%	0.8981	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.150822	-1.91%	0.38983	+153.54%	0.8722	✗	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.151822	-2.88%	0.381685	+144.17%	0.8283	✗	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.16534	-3.82%	0.36952	+114.96%	0.7342	✗	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.163232	-3.66%	0.43524	+156.87%	0.8923	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.172594	-2.21%	0.412955	+133.98%	0.8186	✗	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.163267	-2.19%	0.44425	+166.15%	0.9353	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.147986	-0.04%	0.45364	+206.43%	1.0452	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.157679	-3.75%	0.48606	+196.71%	1.0580	✗	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.130947	-0.11%	0.436315	+232.84%	1.1054	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.116081	+2.42%	0.4043	+256.71%	1.1403	✓	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.122988	+3.46%	0.391515	+229.34%	1.1257	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.099192	+0.73%	0.446505	+353.42%	1.4340	✓	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.095006	-3.73%	0.29519	+199.11%	1.0217	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.087844	-6.02%	0.25509	+172.90%	0.9464	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.089888	-6.14%	0.24457	+155.39%	0.8800	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.094975	-8.25%	0.13705	+32.40%	0.2128	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.087502	-5.89%	0.140985	+51.64%	0.2966	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.087208	-5.97%	0.14356	+54.80%	0.3323	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.089294	-5.99%	0.14992	+57.84%	0.3538	✗	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.092423	-6.30%	0.148505	+50.55%	0.3096	✗	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.091924	-5.85%	0.147705	+51.28%	0.3185	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.088391	-5.33%	0.154095	+65.05%	0.3847	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.091538	-5.70%	0.16393	+68.88%	0.4250	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.091749	-5.76%	0.1575	+61.77%	0.3766	✗	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.09139	-5.67%	0.16514	+70.45%	0.4147	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.091536	-6.41%	0.17224	+76.11%	0.4503	✗	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.09417	-6.65%	0.14964	+48.34%	0.2882	✗	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.09476	-6.80%	0.15856	+55.96%	0.3142	✗	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.090569	-6.78%	0.14371	+47.91%	0.2983	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.092488	-7.23%	0.14284	+43.27%	0.2703	✗	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.097103	-8.18%	0.153755	+45.39%	0.2640	✗	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.104428	-10.50%	0.15632	+33.97%	0.2174	✗	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.087117	-7.89%	0.1719	+81.76%	0.4643	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.089678	-7.24%	0.16944	+75.26%	0.4070	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.096062	-6.88%	0.17649	+71.08%	0.3402	✗	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.098646	-6.79%	0.166915	+57.71%	0.2720	✗	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.10652	-7.03%	0.14804	+29.21%	0.1230	✗	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.105395	-7.28%	0.163815	+44.11%	0.2074	✗	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.106689	-7.21%	0.13109	+14.01%	0.0144	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.110053	-7.61%	0.11334	-4.85%	0.1613	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.112175	-7.75%	0.11888	-2.23%	0.1321	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.110749	-7.66%	0.098475	-17.90%	0.2220	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.113278	-8.44%	0.09869	-20.23%	0.2098	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.112503	-8.59%	0.093475	-24.05%	0.1853	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.115111	-8.71%	0.095765	-24.06%	0.1781	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.118235	-9.00%	0.10351	-20.33%	0.1124	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.122984	-9.09%	0.092975	-31.27%	0.2649	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.132058	-9.45%	0.09274	-36.41%	0.3205	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.137689	-11.28%	0.09498	-38.80%	0.3420	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.108061	-7.56%	0.09864	-15.62%	0.1040	✓	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.113738	-7.78%	0.097635	-20.83%	0.1505	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.114428	-7.73%	0.093365	-24.72%	0.2049	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.109127	-7.30%	0.09707	-17.54%	0.1244	✓	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.106213	-7.13%	0.09736	-14.87%	0.1046	✓	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.101597	-6.83%	0.096885	-11.16%	0.0735	✓	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.103066	-6.76%	0.097805	-11.52%	0.0615	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.10577	-6.93%	0.100875	-11.24%	0.0530	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.104489	-6.86%	0.10167	-9.37%	0.0317	✓	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.100785	-6.39%	0.09716	-9.76%	0.0401	✓	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.103173	-6.47%	0.0997	-9.62%	0.0438	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.104846	-6.48%	0.105755	-5.66%	0.0050	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.100829	-6.05%	0.116685	+8.73%	0.1164	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.10617	-6.55%	0.094575	-16.75%	0.1965	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.09952	-5.83%	0.09668	-8.52%	0.0840	✓	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.09537	-6.20%	0.10316	+1.47%	0.0149	✓	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.082526	-5.49%	0.105835	+21.20%	0.1937	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.078427	-5.46%	0.114575	+38.11%	0.2938	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.078459	-5.52%	0.113675	+36.89%	0.2967	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.078213	-5.51%	0.11498	+38.91%	0.3357	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.081429	-5.49%	0.119115	+38.25%	0.3427	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.082567	-5.39%	0.121595	+39.32%	0.3542	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.085995	-5.29%	0.11994	+32.10%	0.2821	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.092922	-5.70%	0.123715	+25.55%	0.2709	✗	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.089923	-5.47%	0.12307	+29.37%	0.2950	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.088961	-5.43%	0.1261	+34.05%	0.3188	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.092561	-5.47%	0.129925	+32.68%	0.3477	✗	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.095246	-5.16%	0.135285	+34.71%	0.3795	✗	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.09649	-5.40%	0.145845	+42.99%	0.4369	✗	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.095492	-5.33%	0.1552	+53.86%	0.4967	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.095362	-5.37%	0.116895	+16.00%	0.2378	✗	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.096887	-5.17%	0.12333	+20.71%	0.2381	✗	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.098957	-5.16%	0.12402	+18.86%	0.2225	✗	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.094046	-4.62%	0.11772	+19.39%	0.1818	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.099838	-4.97%	0.11437	+8.86%	0.1120	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.104944	-5.79%	0.10905	-2.10%	0.0516	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.097712	-5.73%	0.11054	+6.65%	0.1230	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.086552	-5.44%	0.11365	+24.17%	0.2219	✗	1.00