DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

137

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

58.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0537

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0095

actual +0.0087

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.384055	-0.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.396312	-0.61%	0.386075	-3.18%	0.0220	✓	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.396359	-0.62%	0.398745	-0.02%	0.0132	✓	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.380013	-0.49%	0.39882	+4.44%	0.0512	✗	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.400275	-0.68%	0.38187	-5.25%	0.0579	✓	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.384954	-0.58%	0.403015	+4.08%	0.0479	✗	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.408205	-0.75%	0.387205	-5.85%	0.0423	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.413579	-0.67%	0.41127	-1.23%	0.0151	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.446707	-0.92%	0.416385	-7.64%	0.0445	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.436406	-1.00%	0.450845	+2.28%	0.0095	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.490739	-1.13%	0.4408	-11.19%	0.0707	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.531918	-1.24%	0.49633	-7.85%	0.0840	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.507723	-1.56%	0.538615	+4.43%	0.0520	✗	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.430037	-1.54%	0.515775	+18.10%	0.1656	✗	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.369811	-1.00%	0.436745	+16.92%	0.1984	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.402657	-1.21%	0.373545	-8.35%	0.0312	✓	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.406623	-1.32%	0.407595	-1.09%	0.0064	✓	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.410814	-1.47%	0.41208	-1.17%	0.0175	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.378899	-1.46%	0.41695	+8.43%	0.0624	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.390369	-1.53%	0.38453	-3.00%	0.0196	✓	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.388642	-1.65%	0.39644	+0.32%	0.0264	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.383232	-1.69%	0.395175	+1.37%	0.0062	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.374957	-1.76%	0.38983	+2.13%	0.0405	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.362835	-1.81%	0.381685	+3.29%	0.0473	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.426859	-1.93%	0.36952	-15.10%	0.1277	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.405281	-1.86%	0.43524	+5.40%	0.0706	✗	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.43554	-1.96%	0.412955	-7.04%	0.0584	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.443475	-2.24%	0.44425	-2.07%	0.0064	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.468499	-3.61%	0.45364	-6.67%	0.0323	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.422597	-3.14%	0.48606	+11.40%	0.1696	✗	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.392058	-3.03%	0.436315	+7.92%	0.1135	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.379377	-3.10%	0.4043	+3.27%	0.0365	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.415593	-6.92%	0.391515	-12.32%	0.0583	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.286098	-3.08%	0.446505	+51.26%	0.4383	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.248052	-2.76%	0.29519	+15.72%	0.0906	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.232486	-4.94%	0.25509	+4.30%	0.0889	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.136432	-0.45%	0.24457	+78.45%	0.5736	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.140428	-0.40%	0.13705	-2.79%	0.0221	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.142904	-0.46%	0.140985	-1.79%	0.0384	✓	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.14919	-0.49%	0.14356	-4.24%	0.0301	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.147847	-0.44%	0.14992	+0.95%	0.0130	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.14707	-0.43%	0.148505	+0.54%	0.0022	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.15335	-0.48%	0.147705	-4.15%	0.0068	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.162818	-0.68%	0.154095	-6.00%	0.0522	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.156667	-0.53%	0.16393	+4.08%	0.0566	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.164041	-0.67%	0.1575	-4.63%	0.0189	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.169904	-1.36%	0.16514	-4.12%	0.0372	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.148823	-0.55%	0.17224	+15.10%	0.1433	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.157173	-0.87%	0.14964	-5.63%	0.0209	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.142901	-0.56%	0.15856	+10.33%	0.0286	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.142104	-0.52%	0.14371	+0.61%	0.0130	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.152705	-0.68%	0.14284	-7.10%	0.0480	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.155023	-0.83%	0.153755	-1.64%	0.0227	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.169564	-1.36%	0.15632	-9.06%	0.0734	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.166692	-1.62%	0.1719	+1.45%	0.0253	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.172461	-2.28%	0.16944	-3.99%	0.0153	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.163176	-2.24%	0.17649	+5.74%	0.0618	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.146015	-1.37%	0.166915	+12.75%	0.1272	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.158736	-3.10%	0.14804	-9.63%	0.0638	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.129515	-1.20%	0.163815	+24.96%	0.2198	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112664	-0.60%	0.13109	+15.66%	0.1434	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.117134	-1.47%	0.11334	-4.66%	0.0181	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.098302	-0.18%	0.11888	+20.72%	0.1437	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.09831	-0.39%	0.098475	-0.22%	0.0362	✓	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.093105	-0.40%	0.09869	+5.58%	0.0085	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.095279	-0.51%	0.093475	-2.39%	0.0214	✓	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.101968	-1.49%	0.095765	-7.48%	0.0842	✓	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.092666	-0.33%	0.10351	+11.33%	0.1131	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.092444	-0.32%	0.092975	+0.25%	0.0052	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.094663	-0.33%	0.09274	-2.36%	0.0146	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.098254	-0.39%	0.09498	-3.71%	0.0341	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.097253	-0.39%	0.09864	+1.03%	0.0157	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.09306	-0.33%	0.097635	+4.57%	0.0530	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.096685	-0.40%	0.093365	-3.82%	0.0229	✓	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.096968	-0.40%	0.09707	-0.30%	0.0018	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.0965	-0.40%	0.09736	+0.49%	0.0087	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.097358	-0.46%	0.096885	-0.94%	0.0130	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.100343	-0.53%	0.097805	-3.04%	0.0213	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.101013	-0.65%	0.100875	-0.78%	0.0086	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.096623	-0.55%	0.10167	+4.64%	0.0433	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.099105	-0.60%	0.09716	-2.55%	0.0194	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.104845	-0.86%	0.0997	-5.73%	0.0605	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.114403	-1.96%	0.105755	-9.37%	0.0777	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.093971	-0.64%	0.116685	+23.38%	0.2503	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.096093	-0.61%	0.094575	-2.18%	0.0308	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102584	-0.56%	0.09668	-6.28%	0.0602	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.105241	-0.56%	0.10316	-2.53%	0.0228	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.113864	-0.62%	0.105835	-7.63%	0.0445	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.112974	-0.62%	0.114575	+0.79%	0.0042	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.114296	-0.59%	0.113675	-1.13%	0.0092	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.118343	-0.65%	0.11498	-3.47%	0.0119	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.120779	-0.67%	0.119115	-2.04%	0.0038	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.119151	-0.66%	0.121595	+1.38%	0.0276	✗	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.12281	-0.73%	0.11994	-3.05%	0.0471	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.122199	-0.71%	0.123715	+0.52%	0.0026	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.125192	-0.72%	0.12307	-2.40%	0.0150	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.128989	-0.72%	0.1261	-2.94%	0.0400	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.134305	-0.72%	0.129925	-3.96%	0.0356	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.144436	-0.97%	0.135285	-7.24%	0.0476	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.152071	-2.02%	0.145845	-6.03%	0.0368	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.116301	-0.51%	0.1552	+32.77%	0.2586	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.122608	-0.59%	0.116895	-5.22%	0.0325	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.123295	-0.58%	0.12333	-0.56%	0.0006	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.116984	-0.62%	0.12402	+5.35%	0.0621	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.113777	-0.52%	0.11772	+2.93%	0.0243	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.108575	-0.44%	0.11437	+4.88%	0.0427	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.110035	-0.46%	0.10905	-1.35%	0.0016	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.113083	-0.50%	0.11054	-2.74%	0.0163	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.111677	-0.45%	0.11365	+1.31%	0.0136	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.107246	-0.39%	0.11218	+4.19%	0.0404	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.109827	-0.44%	0.10767	-2.39%	0.0254	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.111653	-0.40%	0.11031	-1.60%	0.0232	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.106838	-0.45%	0.112105	+4.46%	0.0322	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.112951	-0.58%	0.10732	-5.54%	0.0706	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.105225	-0.43%	0.11361	+7.50%	0.1019	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.100956	-0.70%	0.10568	+3.94%	0.0354	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.087067	-0.29%	0.10167	+16.43%	0.1620	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082765	-0.24%	0.08732	+5.26%	0.0547	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082852	-0.23%	0.08296	-0.10%	0.0037	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.082579	-0.24%	0.08304	+0.32%	0.0268	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.085916	-0.28%	0.082775	-3.93%	0.0104	✓	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.087031	-0.28%	0.08616	-1.28%	0.0106	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.09054	-0.28%	0.087275	-3.88%	0.0480	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.098195	-0.35%	0.090795	-7.86%	0.0629	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.09484	-0.30%	0.098535	+3.58%	0.0265	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.093808	-0.28%	0.09513	+1.13%	0.0046	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.097643	-0.28%	0.09407	-3.93%	0.0127	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.10016	-0.27%	0.09792	-2.50%	0.0046	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.101697	-0.30%	0.10043	-1.54%	0.0025	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.100575	-0.29%	0.102	+1.12%	0.0054	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.100493	-0.28%	0.10087	+0.10%	0.0159	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.101927	-0.24%	0.10077	-1.37%	0.0254	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.104103	-0.23%	0.10217	-2.08%	0.0183	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.098458	-0.14%	0.10434	+5.82%	0.0242	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.104856	-0.19%	0.0986	-6.15%	0.0576	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.110913	-0.43%	0.10506	-5.68%	0.0321	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.10329	-0.35%	0.11139	+7.47%	0.0793	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.09137	-0.17%	0.10365	+13.24%	0.0866	✗	1.00