DCR

Decred · native · gru_s4

token id: #518
symbol: DCR
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-22
predictions: 432

Track record at +1d

assessed

143

of 144 predictions shown

direction hit

59.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0229

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0026

actual -0.0011

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	15.295	15.2749	-0.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-20	oos	14.749	14.745	-0.03%	15.295	+3.70%	0.0267	✗	0.76
2026-10-19	oos	14.512	14.5138	+0.01%	14.749	+1.63%	0.0059	✓	0.76
2026-10-18	oos	14.454	14.4626	+0.06%	14.512	+0.40%	0.0050	✓	0.75
2026-10-17	oos	14.407	14.4201	+0.09%	14.454	+0.33%	0.0034	✗	0.75
2026-10-16	oos	14.749	14.758	+0.06%	14.407	-2.32%	0.0230	✗	0.74
2026-10-15	oos	15.122	15.1214	-0.00%	14.749	-2.47%	0.0193	✓	0.74
2026-10-14	oos	16.153	16.1357	-0.11%	15.122	-6.38%	0.0700	✓	0.75
2026-10-13	oos	16.365	16.3402	-0.15%	16.153	-1.30%	0.0024	✗	0.75
2026-10-12	oos	16.3325	16.3089	-0.14%	16.365	+0.20%	0.0090	✓	0.76
2026-10-11	oos	16.686	16.6506	-0.21%	16.3325	-2.12%	0.0001	✓	0.82
2026-10-10	oos	16.8915	16.8533	-0.23%	16.686	-1.22%	0.0173	✓	0.79
2026-10-09	oos	17.4845	17.4354	-0.28%	16.8915	-3.39%	0.0352	✓	0.79
2026-10-08	oos	17.3785	17.3283	-0.29%	17.4845	+0.61%	0.0008	✓	0.79
2026-10-07	oos	18.089	18.0216	-0.37%	17.3785	-3.93%	0.0216	✓	0.77
2026-10-06	oos	18.356	18.2788	-0.42%	18.089	-1.45%	0.0102	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	18.533	18.45	-0.45%	18.356	-0.96%	0.0032	✓	0.76
2026-10-04	oos	18.355	18.2685	-0.47%	18.533	+0.97%	0.0212	✗	0.77
2026-10-03	oos	18.2965	18.2242	-0.40%	18.355	+0.32%	0.0089	✓	0.78
2026-10-02	oos	18.255	18.1814	-0.40%	18.2965	+0.23%	0.0041	✗	0.78
2026-10-01	oos	18.171	18.1007	-0.39%	18.255	+0.46%	0.0116	✗	0.77
2026-09-30	oos	18.434	18.366	-0.37%	18.171	-1.43%	0.0228	✓	0.79
2026-09-29	oos	18.116	18.0533	-0.35%	18.434	+1.76%	0.0216	✗	0.79
2026-09-28	oos	17.8165	17.7597	-0.32%	18.116	+1.68%	0.0181	✗	0.79
2026-09-27	oos	18.519	18.4556	-0.34%	17.8165	-3.79%	0.0257	✓	0.80
2026-09-26	oos	18.273	18.2143	-0.32%	18.519	+1.35%	0.0162	✗	0.80
2026-09-25	oos	17.7	17.6505	-0.28%	18.273	+3.24%	0.0315	✗	0.81
2026-09-24	oos	18.268	18.2121	-0.31%	17.7	-3.11%	0.0257	✓	0.80
2026-09-23	oos	18.275	18.2142	-0.33%	18.268	-0.04%	0.0029	✓	0.80
2026-09-22	oos	18.729	18.6537	-0.40%	18.275	-2.42%	0.0022	✓	0.86
2026-09-21	oos	17.971	17.9107	-0.34%	18.729	+4.22%	0.0483	✗	0.78
2026-09-20	oos	17.302	17.2527	-0.28%	17.971	+3.87%	0.0123	✓	0.82
2026-09-19	oos	17.503	17.4491	-0.31%	17.302	-1.15%	0.0077	✓	0.82
2026-09-18	oos	17.739	17.6714	-0.38%	17.503	-1.33%	0.0133	✓	0.83
2026-09-17	oos	16.852	16.7997	-0.31%	17.739	+5.26%	0.0065	✗	0.83
2026-09-16	oos	15.686	15.6753	-0.07%	16.852	+7.43%	0.0702	✗	0.83
2026-09-15	oos	14.752	14.7732	+0.14%	15.686	+6.33%	0.0537	✓	0.85
2026-09-14	oos	16.692	16.6747	-0.10%	14.752	-11.62%	0.0973	✓	0.75
2026-09-13	oos	16.3315	16.3289	-0.02%	16.692	+2.21%	0.0087	✗	0.75
2026-09-12	oos	16.0585	16.0726	+0.09%	16.3315	+1.70%	0.0205	✓	0.75
2026-09-11	oos	15.873	15.8981	+0.16%	16.0585	+1.17%	0.0095	✓	0.77
2026-09-10	oos	15.558	15.5949	+0.24%	15.873	+2.02%	0.0110	✓	0.77
2026-09-09	oos	16.4795	16.4993	+0.12%	15.558	-5.59%	0.0421	✗	0.74
2026-09-08	oos	17.3585	17.3112	-0.27%	16.4795	-5.06%	0.0477	✓	0.73
2026-09-07	oos	15.789	15.8358	+0.30%	17.3585	+9.94%	0.0981	✓	0.77
2026-09-06	oos	16.599	16.6136	+0.09%	15.789	-4.88%	0.0392	✗	0.75
2026-09-05	oos	15.892	15.8937	+0.01%	16.599	+4.45%	0.0387	✓	0.75
2026-09-04	oos	15.5575	15.5856	+0.18%	15.892	+2.15%	0.0180	✓	0.72
2026-09-03	oos	14.294	14.3472	+0.37%	15.5575	+8.84%	0.0965	✓	0.79
2026-09-02	oos	13.9475	13.9759	+0.20%	14.294	+2.48%	0.0210	✗	0.87
2026-09-01	oos	14.385	14.3947	+0.07%	13.9475	-3.04%	0.0305	✗	0.89
2026-08-31	oos	14.5445	14.5395	-0.03%	14.385	-1.10%	0.0022	✗	0.86
2026-08-30	oos	14.067	14.0673	+0.00%	14.5445	+3.39%	0.0236	✓	0.85
2026-08-29	oos	14.2525	14.2415	-0.08%	14.067	-1.30%	0.0061	✓	0.85
2026-08-28	oos	14.129	14.1063	-0.16%	14.2525	+0.87%	0.0060	✗	0.85
2026-08-27	oos	13.932	13.9187	-0.10%	14.129	+1.41%	0.0421	✗	0.88
2026-08-26	oos	13.851	13.8309	-0.14%	13.932	+0.58%	0.0066	✓	0.88
2026-08-25	oos	13.665	13.6417	-0.17%	13.851	+1.36%	0.0097	✗	0.87
2026-08-24	oos	13.851	13.8158	-0.25%	13.665	-1.34%	0.0060	✓	0.87
2026-08-23	oos	14.251	14.1805	-0.49%	13.851	-2.81%	0.0376	✓	0.88
2026-08-22	oos	13.985	13.9018	-0.59%	14.251	+1.90%	0.0171	✗	0.88
2026-08-21	oos	13.0055	12.9907	-0.11%	13.985	+7.53%	0.0887	✗	0.92
2026-08-20	oos	11.955	11.9457	-0.08%	13.0055	+8.79%	0.0244	✗	0.86
2026-08-19	oos	11.9285	11.9108	-0.15%	11.955	+0.22%	0.0446	✓	0.93
2026-08-18	oos	11.7125	11.6891	-0.20%	11.9285	+1.84%	0.0511	✓	1.04
2026-08-17	oos	12.0775	12.0513	-0.22%	11.7125	-3.02%	0.0318	✓	1.04
2026-08-16	oos	11.9685	11.9435	-0.21%	12.0775	+0.91%	0.0161	✓	1.06
2026-08-15	oos	12.037	12.0112	-0.21%	11.9685	-0.57%	0.0005	✓	1.06
2026-08-14	oos	11.97	11.9473	-0.19%	12.037	+0.56%	0.0067	✗	1.06
2026-08-13	oos	12.14	12.1141	-0.21%	11.97	-1.40%	0.0044	✓	1.06
2026-08-12	oos	12.246	12.2139	-0.26%	12.14	-0.87%	0.0063	✓	1.06
2026-08-11	oos	12.985	12.9458	-0.30%	12.246	-5.69%	0.0536	✓	1.06
2026-08-10	oos	12.7835	12.7489	-0.27%	12.985	+1.58%	0.0247	✗	1.06
2026-08-09	oos	12.952	12.9162	-0.28%	12.7835	-1.30%	0.0051	✗	1.06
2026-08-08	oos	12.798	12.7657	-0.25%	12.952	+1.20%	0.0155	✗	1.06
2026-08-07	oos	12.7525	12.7214	-0.24%	12.798	+0.36%	0.0057	✗	1.06
2026-08-06	oos	12.51	12.4775	-0.26%	12.7525	+1.94%	0.0116	✗	1.06
2026-08-05	oos	12.977	12.9314	-0.35%	12.51	-3.60%	0.0276	✓	1.05
2026-08-04	oos	13.3845	13.3372	-0.35%	12.977	-3.04%	0.0366	✓	1.07
2026-08-03	oos	13.2705	13.2239	-0.35%	13.3845	+0.86%	0.0023	✓	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	13.2305	13.176	-0.41%	13.2705	+0.30%	0.0077	✗	1.07
2026-08-01	oos	13.1025	13.0284	-0.57%	13.2305	+0.98%	0.0029	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	13.158	13.0478	-0.84%	13.1025	-0.42%	0.0052	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	13.606	13.4531	-1.12%	13.158	-3.29%	0.0096	✓	1.07
2026-07-29	oos	11.6495	11.5974	-0.45%	13.606	+16.79%	0.1471	✗	0.98
2026-07-28	oos	11.581	11.5288	-0.45%	11.6495	+0.59%	0.0097	✗	0.98
2026-07-27	oos	11.183	11.1522	-0.28%	11.581	+3.56%	0.0354	✗	0.97
2026-07-26	oos	11.685	11.6493	-0.31%	11.183	-4.30%	0.0164	✓	0.96
2026-07-25	oos	11.5805	11.5508	-0.26%	11.685	+0.90%	0.0040	✓	0.96
2026-07-24	oos	11.5935	11.5641	-0.25%	11.5805	-0.11%	0.0018	✓	0.96
2026-07-23	oos	11.9935	11.9672	-0.22%	11.5935	-3.34%	0.0174	✓	0.95
2026-07-22	oos	12.47	12.4409	-0.23%	11.9935	-3.82%	0.0217	✓	0.94
2026-07-21	oos	12.5985	12.5668	-0.25%	12.47	-1.02%	0.0016	✓	0.94
2026-07-20	oos	12.729	12.6945	-0.27%	12.5985	-1.03%	0.0267	✓	0.97
2026-07-19	oos	12.72	12.6784	-0.33%	12.729	+0.07%	0.0039	✓	0.97
2026-07-18	oos	12.716	12.6552	-0.48%	12.72	+0.03%	0.0068	✗	0.97
2026-07-17	oos	12.584	12.5267	-0.46%	12.716	+1.05%	0.0014	✓	0.97
2026-07-16	oos	13.336	13.2339	-0.77%	12.584	-5.64%	0.0523	✓	0.98
2026-07-15	oos	13.502	13.3482	-1.14%	13.336	-1.23%	0.0136	✗	0.98
2026-07-14	oos	13.764	13.572	-1.39%	13.502	-1.90%	0.0010	✓	0.98
2026-07-13	oos	12.513	12.3182	-1.56%	13.764	+10.00%	0.0741	✗	0.86
2026-07-12	oos	12.1975	12.0667	-1.07%	12.513	+2.59%	0.0576	✗	0.91
2026-07-11	oos	11.253	11.2148	-0.34%	12.1975	+8.39%	0.0845	✗	0.90
2026-07-10	oos	11.16	11.136	-0.22%	11.253	+0.83%	0.0155	✗	0.90
2026-07-09	oos	11.012	10.9866	-0.23%	11.16	+1.34%	0.0023	✓	0.90
2026-07-08	oos	10.971	10.9438	-0.25%	11.012	+0.37%	0.0072	✓	0.90
2026-07-07	oos	11.012	10.9851	-0.24%	10.971	-0.37%	0.0145	✗	0.91
2026-07-06	oos	11.216	11.1924	-0.21%	11.012	-1.82%	0.0066	✓	0.91
2026-07-05	oos	11.145	11.1221	-0.21%	11.216	+0.64%	0.0025	✗	0.91
2026-07-04	oos	11.2845	11.2581	-0.23%	11.145	-1.24%	0.0173	✓	0.92
2026-07-03	oos	11.4835	11.4496	-0.30%	11.2845	-1.73%	0.0229	✓	0.93
2026-07-02	oos	11.1825	11.1554	-0.24%	11.4835	+2.69%	0.0138	✗	0.91
2026-07-01	oos	10.94	10.9175	-0.21%	11.1825	+2.22%	0.0013	✓	0.90
2026-06-30	oos	10.729	10.7125	-0.15%	10.94	+1.97%	0.0008	✓	0.90
2026-06-29	oos	11.281	11.2549	-0.23%	10.729	-4.89%	0.0238	✓	0.87
2026-06-28	oos	11.106	11.0807	-0.23%	11.281	+1.58%	0.0080	✗	0.86
2026-06-27	oos	11.4885	11.4504	-0.33%	11.106	-3.33%	0.0239	✓	0.86
2026-06-26	oos	11.197	11.1537	-0.39%	11.4885	+2.60%	0.0305	✗	0.85
2026-06-25	oos	10.96	10.8871	-0.66%	11.197	+2.16%	0.0239	✗	0.83
2026-06-24	oos	12.179	12.07	-0.90%	10.96	-10.01%	0.0805	✓	0.75
2026-06-23	oos	11.177	11.1521	-0.22%	12.179	+8.96%	0.1125	✗	0.91
2026-06-22	oos	11.5125	11.4827	-0.26%	11.177	-2.91%	0.0083	✓	0.90
2026-06-21	oos	11.433	11.4102	-0.20%	11.5125	+0.70%	0.0012	✓	0.90
2026-06-20	oos	11.873	11.8434	-0.25%	11.433	-3.71%	0.0198	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	11.617	11.594	-0.20%	11.873	+2.20%	0.0121	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	11.479	11.4581	-0.18%	11.617	+1.20%	0.0043	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	12.04	12.0106	-0.24%	11.479	-4.66%	0.0207	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	12.39	12.3524	-0.30%	12.04	-2.82%	0.0076	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	12.67	12.617	-0.42%	12.39	-2.21%	0.0081	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	12.812	12.7635	-0.38%	12.67	-1.11%	0.0160	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	12.242	12.212	-0.24%	12.812	+4.66%	0.0283	✗	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	12.032	12.0104	-0.18%	12.242	+1.75%	0.0052	✗	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	12.172	12.1527	-0.16%	12.032	-1.15%	0.0096	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	11.832	11.8282	-0.03%	12.172	+2.87%	0.0052	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	11.962	11.9602	-0.01%	11.832	-1.09%	0.0069	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	12.271	12.2631	-0.06%	11.962	-2.52%	0.0028	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	12.382	12.3706	-0.09%	12.271	-0.90%	0.0043	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	12.29	12.2949	+0.04%	12.382	+0.75%	0.0324	✗	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	12.102	12.1084	+0.05%	12.29	+1.55%	0.0179	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	13.152	13.1279	-0.18%	12.102	-7.98%	0.0369	✓	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	14.506	14.4564	-0.34%	13.152	-9.33%	0.0909	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	14.746	14.6777	-0.46%	14.506	-1.63%	0.0283	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	15.614	15.5518	-0.40%	14.746	-5.56%	0.0143	✗	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	16.0015	15.9372	-0.40%	15.614	-2.42%	0.0107	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.