DCR

Decred · native · gru_s4

token id: #518
symbol: DCR
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-22
predictions: 432

Track record at +1d

assessed

143

of 144 predictions shown

direction hit

55.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0226

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0012

actual -0.0013

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	14.773	14.7464	-0.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.74
2026-10-20	oos	14.749	14.7343	-0.10%	14.773	+0.16%	0.0048	✗	0.76
2026-10-19	oos	14.512	14.4982	-0.10%	14.749	+1.63%	0.0070	✗	0.76
2026-10-18	oos	14.454	14.4461	-0.05%	14.512	+0.40%	0.0061	✗	0.75
2026-10-17	oos	14.407	14.403	-0.03%	14.454	+0.33%	0.0022	✓	0.75
2026-10-16	oos	14.749	14.7414	-0.05%	14.407	-2.32%	0.0219	✓	0.74
2026-10-15	oos	15.122	15.1059	-0.11%	14.749	-2.47%	0.0183	✓	0.74
2026-10-14	oos	16.153	16.1115	-0.26%	15.122	-6.38%	0.0685	✓	0.75
2026-10-13	oos	16.365	16.3171	-0.29%	16.153	-1.30%	0.0039	✗	0.75
2026-10-12	oos	16.3325	16.2853	-0.29%	16.365	+0.20%	0.0076	✓	0.76
2026-10-11	oos	16.686	16.6332	-0.32%	16.3325	-2.12%	0.0010	✓	0.82
2026-10-10	oos	16.8915	16.8362	-0.33%	16.686	-1.22%	0.0163	✓	0.79
2026-10-09	oos	17.4845	17.4176	-0.38%	16.8915	-3.39%	0.0342	✓	0.79
2026-10-08	oos	17.3785	17.3117	-0.38%	17.4845	+0.61%	0.0018	✓	0.79
2026-10-07	oos	18.089	18.0057	-0.46%	17.3785	-3.93%	0.0207	✓	0.77
2026-10-06	oos	18.356	18.2709	-0.46%	18.089	-1.45%	0.0106	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	18.533	18.4362	-0.52%	18.356	-0.96%	0.0025	✓	0.76
2026-10-04	oos	18.355	18.2647	-0.49%	18.533	+0.97%	0.0214	✗	0.77
2026-10-03	oos	18.2965	18.2142	-0.45%	18.355	+0.32%	0.0084	✓	0.78
2026-10-02	oos	18.255	18.1718	-0.46%	18.2965	+0.23%	0.0047	✗	0.78
2026-10-01	oos	18.171	18.0965	-0.41%	18.255	+0.46%	0.0119	✗	0.77
2026-09-30	oos	18.434	18.3565	-0.42%	18.171	-1.43%	0.0222	✓	0.79
2026-09-29	oos	18.116	18.0509	-0.36%	18.434	+1.76%	0.0218	✗	0.79
2026-09-28	oos	17.8165	17.7629	-0.30%	18.116	+1.68%	0.0180	✗	0.79
2026-09-27	oos	18.519	18.4558	-0.34%	17.8165	-3.79%	0.0257	✓	0.80
2026-09-26	oos	18.273	18.2169	-0.31%	18.519	+1.35%	0.0160	✗	0.80
2026-09-25	oos	17.7	17.6569	-0.24%	18.273	+3.24%	0.0312	✗	0.81
2026-09-24	oos	18.268	18.2173	-0.28%	17.7	-3.11%	0.0260	✓	0.80
2026-09-23	oos	18.275	18.2221	-0.29%	18.268	-0.04%	0.0024	✓	0.80
2026-09-22	oos	18.729	18.6553	-0.39%	18.275	-2.42%	0.0023	✓	0.86
2026-09-21	oos	17.971	17.9113	-0.33%	18.729	+4.22%	0.0482	✗	0.78
2026-09-20	oos	17.302	17.2475	-0.32%	17.971	+3.87%	0.0119	✓	0.82
2026-09-19	oos	17.503	17.4535	-0.28%	17.302	-1.15%	0.0080	✓	0.82
2026-09-18	oos	17.739	17.6842	-0.31%	17.503	-1.33%	0.0140	✓	0.83
2026-09-17	oos	16.852	16.8074	-0.26%	17.739	+5.26%	0.0060	✗	0.83
2026-09-16	oos	15.686	15.6758	-0.07%	16.852	+7.43%	0.0701	✗	0.83
2026-09-15	oos	14.752	14.778	+0.18%	15.686	+6.33%	0.0534	✓	0.85
2026-09-14	oos	16.692	16.6828	-0.06%	14.752	-11.62%	0.0978	✓	0.75
2026-09-13	oos	16.3315	16.329	-0.02%	16.692	+2.21%	0.0087	✗	0.75
2026-09-12	oos	16.0585	16.0748	+0.10%	16.3315	+1.70%	0.0204	✓	0.75
2026-09-11	oos	15.873	15.9023	+0.18%	16.0585	+1.17%	0.0092	✓	0.77
2026-09-10	oos	15.558	15.6008	+0.27%	15.873	+2.02%	0.0106	✓	0.77
2026-09-09	oos	16.4795	16.5177	+0.23%	15.558	-5.59%	0.0432	✗	0.74
2026-09-08	oos	17.3585	17.3304	-0.16%	16.4795	-5.06%	0.0488	✓	0.73
2026-09-07	oos	15.789	15.8408	+0.33%	17.3585	+9.94%	0.0977	✓	0.77
2026-09-06	oos	16.599	16.6265	+0.17%	15.789	-4.88%	0.0399	✗	0.75
2026-09-05	oos	15.892	15.9032	+0.07%	16.599	+4.45%	0.0381	✓	0.75
2026-09-04	oos	15.5575	15.5826	+0.16%	15.892	+2.15%	0.0182	✓	0.72
2026-09-03	oos	14.294	14.3686	+0.52%	15.5575	+8.84%	0.0950	✓	0.79
2026-09-02	oos	13.9475	13.97	+0.16%	14.294	+2.48%	0.0206	✗	0.87
2026-09-01	oos	14.385	14.3895	+0.03%	13.9475	-3.04%	0.0302	✗	0.89
2026-08-31	oos	14.5445	14.5445	-0.00%	14.385	-1.10%	0.0018	✗	0.86
2026-08-30	oos	14.067	14.078	+0.08%	14.5445	+3.39%	0.0228	✓	0.85
2026-08-29	oos	14.2525	14.2614	+0.06%	14.067	-1.30%	0.0075	✗	0.85
2026-08-28	oos	14.129	14.1283	-0.00%	14.2525	+0.87%	0.0045	✗	0.85
2026-08-27	oos	13.932	13.9474	+0.11%	14.129	+1.41%	0.0400	✓	0.88
2026-08-26	oos	13.851	13.8578	+0.05%	13.932	+0.58%	0.0085	✗	0.88
2026-08-25	oos	13.665	13.6725	+0.05%	13.851	+1.36%	0.0075	✓	0.87
2026-08-24	oos	13.851	13.8527	+0.01%	13.665	-1.34%	0.0086	✗	0.87
2026-08-23	oos	14.251	14.2329	-0.13%	13.851	-2.81%	0.0413	✓	0.88
2026-08-22	oos	13.985	13.9494	-0.25%	14.251	+1.90%	0.0137	✗	0.88
2026-08-21	oos	13.0055	13.0104	+0.04%	13.985	+7.53%	0.0872	✓	0.92
2026-08-20	oos	11.955	11.9713	+0.14%	13.0055	+8.79%	0.0222	✓	0.86
2026-08-19	oos	11.9285	11.9289	+0.00%	11.955	+0.22%	0.0462	✗	0.93
2026-08-18	oos	11.7125	11.6852	-0.23%	11.9285	+1.84%	0.0508	✓	1.04
2026-08-17	oos	12.0775	12.0457	-0.26%	11.7125	-3.02%	0.0313	✓	1.04
2026-08-16	oos	11.9685	11.9374	-0.26%	12.0775	+0.91%	0.0156	✓	1.06
2026-08-15	oos	12.037	12.0074	-0.25%	11.9685	-0.57%	0.0002	✓	1.06
2026-08-14	oos	11.97	11.9459	-0.20%	12.037	+0.56%	0.0069	✗	1.06
2026-08-13	oos	12.14	12.1178	-0.18%	11.97	-1.40%	0.0048	✓	1.06
2026-08-12	oos	12.246	12.2237	-0.18%	12.14	-0.87%	0.0071	✓	1.06
2026-08-11	oos	12.985	12.9547	-0.23%	12.246	-5.69%	0.0543	✓	1.06
2026-08-10	oos	12.7835	12.756	-0.21%	12.985	+1.58%	0.0241	✗	1.06
2026-08-09	oos	12.952	12.9203	-0.24%	12.7835	-1.30%	0.0048	✗	1.06
2026-08-08	oos	12.798	12.7699	-0.22%	12.952	+1.20%	0.0151	✗	1.06
2026-08-07	oos	12.7525	12.7311	-0.17%	12.798	+0.36%	0.0050	✗	1.06
2026-08-06	oos	12.51	12.4937	-0.13%	12.7525	+1.94%	0.0103	✗	1.06
2026-08-05	oos	12.977	12.9527	-0.19%	12.51	-3.60%	0.0293	✓	1.05
2026-08-04	oos	13.3845	13.3479	-0.27%	12.977	-3.04%	0.0374	✓	1.07
2026-08-03	oos	13.2705	13.2314	-0.29%	13.3845	+0.86%	0.0017	✓	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	13.2305	13.1899	-0.31%	13.2705	+0.30%	0.0066	✗	1.07
2026-08-01	oos	13.1025	13.0594	-0.33%	13.2305	+0.98%	0.0006	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	13.158	13.1045	-0.41%	13.1025	-0.42%	0.0009	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	13.606	13.5283	-0.57%	13.158	-3.29%	0.0040	✓	1.07
2026-07-29	oos	11.6495	11.6179	-0.27%	13.606	+16.79%	0.1453	✗	0.98
2026-07-28	oos	11.581	11.5467	-0.30%	11.6495	+0.59%	0.0081	✗	0.98
2026-07-27	oos	11.183	11.1611	-0.20%	11.581	+3.56%	0.0346	✗	0.97
2026-07-26	oos	11.685	11.6624	-0.19%	11.183	-4.30%	0.0175	✓	0.96
2026-07-25	oos	11.5805	11.5724	-0.07%	11.685	+0.90%	0.0058	✓	0.96
2026-07-24	oos	11.5935	11.5925	-0.01%	11.5805	-0.11%	0.0042	✓	0.96
2026-07-23	oos	11.9935	11.9919	-0.01%	11.5935	-3.34%	0.0195	✓	0.95
2026-07-22	oos	12.47	12.4628	-0.06%	11.9935	-3.82%	0.0235	✓	0.94
2026-07-21	oos	12.5985	12.5875	-0.09%	12.47	-1.02%	0.0033	✓	0.94
2026-07-20	oos	12.729	12.7102	-0.15%	12.5985	-1.03%	0.0280	✓	0.97
2026-07-19	oos	12.72	12.6969	-0.18%	12.729	+0.07%	0.0054	✓	0.97
2026-07-18	oos	12.716	12.6875	-0.22%	12.72	+0.03%	0.0043	✗	0.97
2026-07-17	oos	12.584	12.5604	-0.19%	12.716	+1.05%	0.0013	✓	0.97
2026-07-16	oos	13.336	13.292	-0.33%	12.584	-5.64%	0.0566	✓	0.98
2026-07-15	oos	13.502	13.4441	-0.43%	13.336	-1.23%	0.0064	✗	0.98
2026-07-14	oos	13.764	13.6974	-0.48%	13.502	-1.90%	0.0102	✓	0.98
2026-07-13	oos	12.513	12.4655	-0.38%	13.764	+10.00%	0.0622	✗	0.86
2026-07-12	oos	12.1975	12.1753	-0.18%	12.513	+2.59%	0.0487	✗	0.91
2026-07-11	oos	11.253	11.2579	+0.04%	12.1975	+8.39%	0.0806	✓	0.90
2026-07-10	oos	11.16	11.1671	+0.06%	11.253	+0.83%	0.0127	✓	0.90
2026-07-09	oos	11.012	11.0215	+0.09%	11.16	+1.34%	0.0009	✗	0.90
2026-07-08	oos	10.971	10.9813	+0.09%	11.012	+0.37%	0.0107	✗	0.90
2026-07-07	oos	11.012	11.0228	+0.10%	10.971	-0.37%	0.0110	✓	0.91
2026-07-06	oos	11.216	11.2246	+0.08%	11.012	-1.82%	0.0094	✗	0.91
2026-07-05	oos	11.145	11.1552	+0.09%	11.216	+0.64%	0.0005	✓	0.91
2026-07-04	oos	11.2845	11.295	+0.09%	11.145	-1.24%	0.0206	✗	0.92
2026-07-03	oos	11.4835	11.4918	+0.07%	11.2845	-1.73%	0.0266	✗	0.93
2026-07-02	oos	11.1825	11.1914	+0.08%	11.4835	+2.69%	0.0105	✓	0.91
2026-07-01	oos	10.94	10.9491	+0.08%	11.1825	+2.22%	0.0016	✗	0.90
2026-06-30	oos	10.729	10.7388	+0.09%	10.94	+1.97%	0.0033	✗	0.90
2026-06-29	oos	11.281	11.2829	+0.02%	10.729	-4.89%	0.0262	✗	0.87
2026-06-28	oos	11.106	11.1073	+0.01%	11.281	+1.58%	0.0056	✓	0.86
2026-06-27	oos	11.4885	11.4817	-0.06%	11.106	-3.33%	0.0266	✓	0.86
2026-06-26	oos	11.197	11.193	-0.04%	11.4885	+2.60%	0.0270	✗	0.85
2026-06-25	oos	10.96	10.9544	-0.05%	11.197	+2.16%	0.0178	✗	0.83
2026-06-24	oos	12.179	12.1556	-0.19%	10.96	-10.01%	0.0876	✓	0.75
2026-06-23	oos	11.177	11.1798	+0.02%	12.179	+8.96%	0.1100	✓	0.91
2026-06-22	oos	11.5125	11.513	+0.00%	11.177	-2.91%	0.0110	✗	0.90
2026-06-21	oos	11.433	11.4346	+0.01%	11.5125	+0.70%	0.0033	✗	0.90
2026-06-20	oos	11.873	11.8711	-0.02%	11.433	-3.71%	0.0221	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	11.617	11.6173	+0.00%	11.873	+2.20%	0.0101	✓	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	11.479	11.4827	+0.03%	11.617	+1.20%	0.0022	✓	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	12.04	12.0397	-0.00%	11.479	-4.66%	0.0231	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	12.39	12.3881	-0.02%	12.04	-2.82%	0.0105	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	12.67	12.6662	-0.03%	12.39	-2.21%	0.0120	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	12.812	12.8034	-0.07%	12.67	-1.11%	0.0191	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	12.242	12.2387	-0.03%	12.812	+4.66%	0.0262	✗	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	12.032	12.0345	+0.02%	12.242	+1.75%	0.0032	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	12.172	12.1751	+0.03%	12.032	-1.15%	0.0114	✗	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	11.832	11.8448	+0.11%	12.172	+2.87%	0.0066	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	11.962	11.9749	+0.11%	11.832	-1.09%	0.0081	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	12.271	12.2764	+0.04%	11.962	-2.52%	0.0039	✗	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	12.382	12.3845	+0.02%	12.271	-0.90%	0.0054	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	12.29	12.31	+0.16%	12.382	+0.75%	0.0337	✗	1.00
2026-06-05	oos	12.102	12.1295	+0.23%	12.29	+1.55%	0.0161	✓	1.00
2026-06-04	oos	13.152	13.1551	+0.02%	12.102	-7.98%	0.0390	✗	1.00
2026-06-03	oos	14.506	14.4977	-0.06%	13.152	-9.33%	0.0938	✓	1.00
2026-06-02	oos	14.746	14.7215	-0.17%	14.506	-1.63%	0.0253	✗	1.00
2026-06-01	oos	15.614	15.5583	-0.36%	14.746	-5.56%	0.0139	✗	1.00
2026-05-31	oos	16.0015	15.9261	-0.47%	15.614	-2.42%	0.0114	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.