BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

51.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1393

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0173

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050563	-0.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049767	-0.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047057	-0.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048338	-1.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052172	-1.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054799	-2.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044296	-0.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043645	-0.39%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1406	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047483	-0.80%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0558	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.05424	-0.86%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1366	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065623	-0.92%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2825	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067354	-1.02%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2259	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.06781	-1.04%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1826	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065387	-0.88%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3862	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.066938	-0.82%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.4101	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066702	-0.64%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.3097	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061871	-0.48%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0869	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062075	-0.54%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.0913	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061507	-0.59%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1184	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062522	-0.51%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1104	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064782	-0.68%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0479	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065776	-0.58%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0283	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066605	-0.44%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0059	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067026	-0.24%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0956	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070806	-0.22%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1390	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071151	+0.02%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1418	✗	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069322	+0.16%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.1007	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.067183	+0.44%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0324	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.064195	+0.86%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0352	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069415	+0.71%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0199	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068803	+0.91%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0018	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066686	+0.82%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0360	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.066108	+0.91%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0480	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065714	+0.82%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0277	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062388	-0.11%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0127	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061351	-0.11%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0222	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062964	-0.37%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0376	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062752	+0.17%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0410	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061663	-0.27%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0473	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063798	-0.36%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0050	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063968	-0.43%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0018	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060317	-0.45%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0359	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.06202	+0.15%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0011	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.06767	-0.00%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0493	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.06763	+0.28%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0705	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067868	+0.69%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0699	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.06912	+0.53%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0591	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.069105	+0.66%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0550	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070577	+1.36%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1192	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.06699	-0.42%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0852	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.06746	-0.01%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0043	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.069011	+0.93%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0259	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.06832	+0.71%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0316	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.07118	+0.82%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0451	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.072071	+0.83%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0608	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.074357	+1.50%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0720	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.073156	+1.30%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0729	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069926	+1.33%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0286	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.073248	+1.35%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0663	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.074312	+1.17%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0907	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.075332	+1.20%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0731	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.091615	+0.75%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2453	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.084164	-0.01%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1745	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080039	-0.87%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1645	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.077049	-2.44%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.2081	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.075587	-2.37%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1524	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.076008	-2.54%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1520	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.077708	-2.59%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1537	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.073379	-2.28%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.0920	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.073678	-2.25%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0551	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.074841	-2.22%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0169	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.075001	-2.16%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0403	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.075716	-2.10%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0159	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.072787	-1.71%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.0915	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.075829	-1.79%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0716	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.076484	-1.81%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0031	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.082345	-2.25%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0783	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.078864	-2.04%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0156	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.075337	-1.79%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0233	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.075132	-1.76%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0240	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.07456	-1.73%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0212	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.073964	-1.64%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0211	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.077523	-1.92%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0163	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.077999	-1.91%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0818	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.078673	-1.90%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0159	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.077847	-1.72%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0166	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.077965	-1.70%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0170	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.085477	-1.80%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.1035	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.083171	-1.67%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0883	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.082973	-1.71%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0384	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.07501	-1.21%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0613	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.08293	-1.57%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0146	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.084045	-1.60%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0356	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.084258	-1.84%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0495	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.088303	-2.16%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0197	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.090111	-2.18%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0574	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.08996	-1.92%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0660	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089645	-1.85%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1850	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.087874	-1.78%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0566	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.085855	-1.75%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0242	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.092668	-2.17%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1246	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.099703	-2.43%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1141	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.096113	-2.23%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0592	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.101438	-2.43%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.0973	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.108001	-3.07%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1769	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.085176	-2.16%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0153	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.083197	-2.17%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0276	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.092632	-2.34%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0443	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.090377	-2.15%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1206	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.090188	-1.99%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0764	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.093093	-1.97%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.0879	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.099016	-2.18%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.0931	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.124	-5.00%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.3956	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.097121	-3.07%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.2049	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080031	-1.49%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1019	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079308	-1.66%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.0942	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073938	-1.25%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1733	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066604	-0.61%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3182	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070544	-0.77%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3347	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.082222	-1.44%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4759	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.097288	-2.21%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.0766	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.092445	-1.91%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0842	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092027	-1.86%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0868	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087054	-1.58%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0974	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.095894	-1.98%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.3126	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.093436	-1.99%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2315	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.076911	-1.14%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1356	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075336	-1.05%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3249	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077643	-1.19%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2297	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071007	-0.76%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3156	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068728	-0.54%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2554	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074292	-0.84%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2763	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072536	-0.80%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.2842	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062908	+0.08%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1717	✓	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064622	-0.04%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1113	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064649	-0.14%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1518	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069705	-0.61%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0061	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066281	-0.18%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0053	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062345	+0.33%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1505	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062965	-0.10%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1529	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069596	-0.79%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0658	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064586	-0.61%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0847	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070063	-1.67%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0494	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.069975	-1.93%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1709	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.075155	-2.36%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.0891	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.074462	-2.47%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0223	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060132	-1.24%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2105	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.061269	-1.52%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.3076	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061062	-1.79%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2179	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.067012	-2.53%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1512	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.06681	-2.47%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1165	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.070132	-2.66%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1363	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.069415	-2.37%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1265	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.080901	-3.69%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2377	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.074462	-2.85%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1430	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.069402	-1.93%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.0995	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.070191	-1.82%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0240	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.069426	-1.44%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0086	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.074483	-1.73%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0177	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.07391	-1.34%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0016	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.085386	-1.77%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0110	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.086826	-2.26%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1096	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.106443	-3.69%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.3917	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.101817	-2.78%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3265	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.096079	-2.22%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2796	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.094373	-1.97%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.2035	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.088985	-1.22%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1653	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.09054	-1.54%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0472	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087778	-0.30%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0281	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.089638	-0.97%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2126	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.092622	-2.22%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.1081	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.095417	-3.58%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0016	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.111407	-4.28%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1608	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.104786	-4.90%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1658	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.105641	-5.99%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.1693	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.122337	-5.81%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.3785	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.130908	-5.46%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4273	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.12983	-5.21%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3470	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.12781	-4.48%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2544	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.128091	-4.89%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.1090	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.117004	-4.63%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0700	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.128715	-5.23%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.1102	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.110022	-4.11%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.1979	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.121289	-7.16%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.1329	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.106104	-6.89%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2357	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.081649	-5.28%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4304	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.087069	-4.55%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.4112	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.116511	-5.47%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0469	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.144304	-13.15%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1012	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.08122	-5.04%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.3014	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.071483	-4.87%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5742	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.062243	-5.26%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5859	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.056954	-4.29%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3720	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.052282	-4.39%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.5210	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.051598	-4.19%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.8161	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.051545	-3.82%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1246	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.059577	-3.81%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.3102	✗	1.00