BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

55.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0600

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0031

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050902	+0.08%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050143	+0.04%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0167	✓	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047407	+0.09%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0446	✓	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048825	-0.02%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0286	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052868	-0.34%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0857	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.05565	-0.63%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0466	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044642	+0.09%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2335	✓	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043898	+0.19%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0097	✓	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047915	+0.10%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0738	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054746	+0.07%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1489	✗	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066238	+0.00%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1761	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.068024	-0.03%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0330	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068493	-0.05%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0096	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.06595	-0.02%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0312	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067469	-0.03%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0099	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.067123	-0.01%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0260	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062227	+0.09%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0777	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062468	+0.09%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0022	✓	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061927	+0.09%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0086	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062914	+0.12%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0190	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065276	+0.08%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0348	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066229	+0.10%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0271	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066992	+0.14%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0119	✗	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067317	+0.19%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0079	✗	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.071083	+0.17%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0499	✗	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071274	+0.20%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0047	✗	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.0694	+0.27%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0227	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.067118	+0.34%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0325	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063936	+0.45%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0451	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069194	+0.39%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0715	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068471	+0.43%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0098	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066411	+0.40%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0162	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065782	+0.41%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0061	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065438	+0.40%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0016	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062578	+0.19%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0080	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061533	+0.18%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0134	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063267	+0.11%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0326	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062788	+0.23%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0204	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061906	+0.12%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0045	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064084	+0.08%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0332	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064265	+0.03%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0040	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060644	+0.09%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0542	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062052	+0.20%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0150	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067774	+0.15%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0891	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067575	+0.20%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0056	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067591	+0.28%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0058	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.06892	+0.24%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0256	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068836	+0.26%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0023	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069904	+0.39%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0070	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067311	+0.06%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0073	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067561	+0.14%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0037	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068593	+0.32%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0102	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.068025	+0.27%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0010	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070796	+0.28%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0389	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071676	+0.27%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0178	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073525	+0.36%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0122	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072465	+0.35%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0031	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069293	+0.41%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0381	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.07258	+0.42%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0476	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073764	+0.43%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0290	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074778	+0.45%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0227	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.091109	+0.20%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1945	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.084331	+0.19%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0488	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080756	+0.01%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0170	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078716	-0.33%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0094	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.077184	-0.30%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0213	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077652	-0.43%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0173	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.07937	-0.50%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0160	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074865	-0.30%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0631	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.075151	-0.30%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0031	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076314	-0.30%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0125	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076421	-0.31%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0028	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.077083	-0.33%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0012	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073924	-0.18%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0556	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.077059	-0.20%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0391	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077714	-0.23%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0066	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083923	-0.38%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0820	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.080222	-0.36%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0529	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076508	-0.26%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0448	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076268	-0.28%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0008	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075675	-0.26%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0109	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.075012	-0.24%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0038	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078783	-0.32%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0460	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079273	-0.30%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0172	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079952	-0.30%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0139	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.079017	-0.24%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0143	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.079134	-0.23%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0005	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086823	-0.25%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0764	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084382	-0.23%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0226	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.084198	-0.26%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0028	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075863	-0.09%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1155	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.084111	-0.17%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0934	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.085274	-0.16%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0083	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085653	-0.21%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0120	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089985	-0.29%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0515	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091847	-0.30%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0162	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091508	-0.23%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0046	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.091138	-0.22%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0045	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089302	-0.19%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0327	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.087236	-0.16%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0287	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094463	-0.28%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1224	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101816	-0.36%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0490	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.098003	-0.31%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0423	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103513	-0.43%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0464	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.110438	-0.88%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0753	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086749	-0.35%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2373	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.08477	-0.32%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0409	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094419	-0.45%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0961	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091977	-0.42%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0249	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091683	-0.37%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0003	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094608	-0.37%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0357	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100687	-0.53%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0739	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.127423	-2.38%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2583	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.098944	-1.25%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2549	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.081041	-0.25%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2426	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.080342	-0.38%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0012	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.07477	-0.14%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0825	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.067069	+0.09%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1111	✓	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.07113	+0.06%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0641	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.083322	-0.12%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1415	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.099051	-0.44%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1531	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.094027	-0.23%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0717	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.093539	-0.25%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0008	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.088332	-0.13%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0717	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.097479	-0.36%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.1067	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.094953	-0.40%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0223	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077777	-0.02%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2277	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.076136	+0.00%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0397	✓	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.078513	-0.08%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0207	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071608	+0.08%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0844	✓	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.069189	+0.13%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0146	✓	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074943	+0.03%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0952	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.073143	+0.03%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0244	✓	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.063014	+0.25%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1198	✓	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064793	+0.22%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0270	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064875	+0.21%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0158	✓	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.070186	+0.08%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0775	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.06651	+0.17%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0206	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062317	+0.29%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0659	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063165	+0.21%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0228	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.070171	+0.03%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.1041	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.065056	+0.12%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1187	✓	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.071172	-0.11%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0205	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.071229	-0.17%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0353	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076682	-0.38%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0691	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075911	-0.58%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0079	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060875	-0.03%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2288	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062168	-0.08%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0082	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.06211	-0.11%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0260	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068551	-0.30%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0767	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068327	-0.25%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0023	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.07183	-0.31%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0523	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070942	-0.22%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0023	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083329	-0.80%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1348	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.07625	-0.52%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0960	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070638	-0.19%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0739	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071364	-0.18%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0064	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070413	-0.04%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0204	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075701	-0.12%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0646	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074917	+0.01%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0220	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086778	-0.16%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1316	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088555	-0.31%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0332	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109444	-0.97%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2035	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.10391	-0.78%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0686	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097379	-0.90%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0757	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095546	-0.75%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0187	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089693	-0.43%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0679	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091458	-0.54%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0163	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087872	-0.20%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0562	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090233	-0.32%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0285	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094198	-0.55%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0482	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098161	-0.81%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0468	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.11522	-1.01%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1512	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.109072	-1.01%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0616	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111071	-1.16%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0241	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.12837	-1.17%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1381	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.136873	-1.15%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0449	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.135178	-1.30%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0377	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.13231	-1.12%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0514	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.132857	-1.35%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0059	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121173	-1.23%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1032	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.132966	-2.10%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0700	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.113189	-1.35%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1813	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.126316	-3.32%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1202	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.110528	-3.01%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1609	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.085281	-1.07%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2626	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.090366	-0.94%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0216	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.120341	-2.36%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2592	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.154268	-7.15%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2499	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.084168	-1.60%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6757	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074149	-1.33%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1340	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064638	-1.62%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1542	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058866	-1.07%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0590	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054114	-1.04%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1274	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053344	-0.95%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0236	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.05318	-0.77%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0040	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061461	-0.77%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1470	✓	1.00