BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

167

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

60.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2516

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0613

actual -0.0910

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.05005	-1.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049143	-1.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046214	-2.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.04714	-3.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.050531	-4.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.052823	-5.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.042908	-3.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.042262	-3.54%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.046125	-3.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.052848	-3.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.064442	-2.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.065993	-3.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.066367	-3.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.064127	-2.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.066011	-2.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066357	-1.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.06153	-1.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.061721	-1.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.060913	-1.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062037	-1.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.06413	-1.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065094	-1.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066138	-1.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066799	-0.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070868	-0.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071782	+0.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069892	+0.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.068091	+1.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.065521	+2.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.071118	+3.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.070931	+4.03%	0.05086	-25.40%	0.3008	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.067838	+2.56%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.3168	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.067377	+2.85%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3573	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.066674	+2.29%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.3200	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.06187	-0.95%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1901	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060812	-0.99%	0.056	-8.82%	0.1215	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062103	-1.74%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3644	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062438	-0.33%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3716	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.06085	-1.59%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2727	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.062848	-1.85%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1628	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063001	-1.94%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0144	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.059119	-2.43%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.1086	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061395	-0.86%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.0892	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.066838	-1.23%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0339	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.06707	-0.55%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0205	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.06755	+0.22%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0386	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068789	+0.05%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1393	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.069091	+0.63%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1485	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.071344	+2.46%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1658	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.066286	-1.46%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.1007	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067173	-0.43%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.0799	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.069908	+2.24%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0816	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.06916	+1.95%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0729	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.072406	+2.56%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.1081	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.073649	+3.03%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0800	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.077434	+5.70%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.1109	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.076235	+5.57%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.1277	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.072899	+5.64%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.1219	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.07675	+6.19%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.2194	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.077629	+5.69%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1748	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.078827	+5.89%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.2086	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.096249	+5.85%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3914	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.085265	+1.29%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.3038	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.079076	-2.07%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.2658	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.072986	-7.58%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.2394	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.071478	-7.68%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.2399	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.071323	-8.54%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.2231	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.072988	-8.50%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2715	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.068672	-8.55%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.2163	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.069028	-8.42%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.1847	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.070157	-8.34%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.2188	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.070444	-8.11%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2685	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.071437	-7.63%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.2890	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.069164	-6.61%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1579	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.072229	-6.46%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.2088	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.072975	-6.31%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.2322	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.078074	-7.32%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.2936	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.075054	-6.78%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2503	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.071522	-6.76%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.1992	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.071198	-6.91%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.1980	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.070687	-6.83%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1826	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.069939	-6.99%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1690	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.073376	-7.17%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.2161	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.074618	-6.16%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.1840	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.075091	-6.36%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.1786	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.074649	-5.76%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1582	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.07486	-5.62%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1694	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.082773	-4.90%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2832	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.080566	-4.75%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.2153	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.08032	-4.85%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1885	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.073298	-3.47%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0826	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.080947	-3.92%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0206	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.082153	-3.81%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0296	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.081878	-4.61%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0422	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.085318	-5.46%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0772	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.087071	-5.48%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.1137	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.087253	-4.87%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.0989	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.087115	-4.62%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0768	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.085681	-4.23%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.1131	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.08384	-4.05%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0865	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.089487	-5.53%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1752	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.095988	-6.06%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.2216	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.092758	-5.64%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.1841	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.097629	-6.09%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.2869	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.103317	-7.27%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.3180	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.082077	-5.72%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0886	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.080144	-5.76%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0376	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.089093	-6.07%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.1088	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.08719	-5.60%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1346	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.087169	-5.27%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.1362	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.089945	-5.28%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.1839	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.09543	-5.73%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2572	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.116959	-10.40%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.4442	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.093046	-7.14%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.2492	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.077646	-4.43%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0338	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.076765	-4.82%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0304	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.071669	-4.28%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0474	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.064933	-3.10%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2174	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.068684	-3.38%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1417	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.079483	-4.72%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0198	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.093129	-6.39%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.2303	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.088758	-5.82%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0763	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.088439	-5.69%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0721	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.084071	-4.95%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0090	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.092088	-5.87%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0355	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.089749	-5.85%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0019	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.074834	-3.81%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2119	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.073457	-3.52%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.2467	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.075676	-3.69%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.1914	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.06952	-2.84%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.2394	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.067409	-2.45%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.3731	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.07249	-3.24%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.3401	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.070775	-3.21%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.3253	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.061784	-1.71%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.4839	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.063386	-1.96%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.5437	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.063397	-2.08%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.3286	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.067909	-3.17%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.2247	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.064413	-2.99%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.3455	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.060534	-2.58%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.3887	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.060983	-3.25%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4214	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.066835	-4.73%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.3721	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.062102	-4.43%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.5758	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.066755	-6.31%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.8516	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.066439	-6.88%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.6677	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.070921	-7.87%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.3615	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.070209	-8.04%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.3703	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.057105	-6.22%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5066	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.05793	-6.89%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.3932	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.057425	-7.64%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.5024	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.062486	-9.12%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5547	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.0622	-9.20%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.7011	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.065115	-9.63%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5740	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.064466	-9.33%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5726	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.074179	-11.69%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3397	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.068482	-10.66%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5325	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.063841	-9.79%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5699	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.064379	-9.95%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3396	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.063463	-9.90%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.3256	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.067952	-10.34%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2807	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.067411	-10.01%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.2192	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.078361	-9.85%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0153	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.079139	-10.91%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0891	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.097865	-11.45%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2094	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.093712	-10.52%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.2710	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.088047	-10.39%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.1614	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.086105	-10.56%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1641	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.081077	-9.99%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0303	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.082888	-9.86%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.0896	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.080918	-8.10%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.0892	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.083304	-7.97%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1344	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.086256	-8.94%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0660	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.088178	-10.90%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.1932	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.103021	-11.49%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.3103	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.095875	-12.98%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.2592	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.095081	-15.39%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.1895	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.110517	-14.92%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.3479	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.119094	-13.99%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.6334	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.119339	-12.87%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.6112	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.119173	-10.94%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.6138	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.118647	-11.90%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.5404	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.108664	-11.43%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.4551	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.121003	-10.91%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.4974	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.104085	-9.29%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3451	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.11226	-14.08%	0.084	-35.71%	0.3056	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.097703	-14.27%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.2637	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.074217	-13.90%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.0867	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.080596	-11.65%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.1357	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.110038	-10.72%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.4501	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.129053	-22.33%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.5707	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.075564	-11.66%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.0636	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.066207	-11.89%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1833	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.057461	-12.54%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.3726	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.051959	-12.68%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.6259	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.04769	-12.79%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6749	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.047154	-12.44%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.6155	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.04717	-11.98%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5971	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.055114	-11.02%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3708	✗	1.00