BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s4

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

197

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

53.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0598

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0073

actual -0.0009

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.054061	-0.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.054086	-0.44%	0.054285	-0.07%	0.0017	✓	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049963	-0.32%	0.054325	+8.38%	0.0726	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047237	-0.27%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0482	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048661	-0.36%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0253	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052654	-0.75%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0817	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055469	-0.95%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0434	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044514	-0.19%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2364	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043746	-0.16%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0132	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047721	-0.30%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0697	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054518	-0.35%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1448	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065959	-0.42%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1719	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067718	-0.48%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0285	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068139	-0.56%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0044	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065532	-0.66%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0375	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067026	-0.69%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0033	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066737	-0.59%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0318	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061911	-0.42%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0828	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062171	-0.39%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0070	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061641	-0.37%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0040	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062628	-0.34%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0144	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064981	-0.37%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0303	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065904	-0.39%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0221	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066604	-0.44%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0061	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066914	-0.41%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0018	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.07056	-0.56%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0425	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070701	-0.61%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0034	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068983	-0.34%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0287	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066717	-0.26%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0385	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063551	-0.16%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0512	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068737	-0.27%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0649	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068009	-0.25%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0166	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065944	-0.30%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0092	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065337	-0.26%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0129	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065049	-0.20%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0043	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062311	-0.24%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0122	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061269	-0.25%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0177	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063024	-0.28%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0287	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062523	-0.19%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0246	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061691	-0.23%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0080	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063856	-0.27%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0297	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064018	-0.35%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0001	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060452	-0.23%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0574	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061786	-0.23%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0107	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067477	-0.28%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0847	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067253	-0.28%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0104	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067221	-0.27%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0113	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068542	-0.31%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0201	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068442	-0.31%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0034	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069441	-0.27%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0004	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.066966	-0.45%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0125	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067158	-0.45%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0023	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068107	-0.39%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0031	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067554	-0.42%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0059	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070344	-0.36%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0325	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071252	-0.32%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0118	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073112	-0.20%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0066	✓	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072059	-0.22%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0087	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068863	-0.21%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0444	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072159	-0.16%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0418	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073304	-0.20%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0228	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074261	-0.24%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0157	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090438	-0.54%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1871	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083836	-0.40%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0547	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080333	-0.51%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0222	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078486	-0.62%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0064	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.076944	-0.62%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0244	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077323	-0.85%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0130	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.079117	-0.82%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0128	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074753	-0.45%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0646	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.075039	-0.45%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0046	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076187	-0.46%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0109	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076268	-0.51%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0048	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.076917	-0.55%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0010	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073744	-0.42%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0580	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076852	-0.47%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0364	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077482	-0.52%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0036	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083721	-0.62%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0796	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.080009	-0.62%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0555	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076304	-0.53%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0474	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076065	-0.54%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0019	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075457	-0.54%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0138	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074791	-0.54%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0067	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078561	-0.61%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0432	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.07901	-0.64%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0206	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079695	-0.62%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0107	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078751	-0.58%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0177	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.07885	-0.59%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0031	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086484	-0.64%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0725	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.08405	-0.63%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0266	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.083876	-0.64%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0067	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075489	-0.58%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1204	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083743	-0.60%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0890	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.084906	-0.59%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0040	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085322	-0.60%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0082	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.08967	-0.64%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0480	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091513	-0.66%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0125	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091129	-0.64%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0005	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.090718	-0.68%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0091	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.088883	-0.66%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0374	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.086827	-0.63%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0334	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094069	-0.69%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1182	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101361	-0.81%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0446	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097537	-0.78%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0471	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.102865	-1.05%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0401	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.109636	-1.60%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0680	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086429	-0.72%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2410	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084498	-0.64%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0441	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.09406	-0.83%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0923	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091481	-0.95%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0303	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091085	-1.02%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0068	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.093863	-1.15%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0278	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.09964	-1.57%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0634	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.125824	-3.61%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2457	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.097945	-2.25%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2650	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080573	-0.83%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2484	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079783	-1.07%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0081	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074374	-0.67%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0879	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066762	-0.37%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1157	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070761	-0.46%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0589	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.082689	-0.88%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1339	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.097857	-1.64%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1410	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093335	-0.97%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0791	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092613	-1.23%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0092	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087582	-0.98%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0802	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096091	-1.78%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0924	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.093771	-1.64%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0348	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077203	-0.76%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2351	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075503	-0.83%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0481	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077621	-1.21%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0093	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071162	-0.54%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0906	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068769	-0.48%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0207	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074399	-0.70%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0879	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072696	-0.58%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0305	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.06273	-0.21%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1243	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064498	-0.24%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0224	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064581	-0.25%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0203	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.06984	-0.41%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0726	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066241	-0.24%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0246	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062071	-0.11%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0699	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062918	-0.18%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0268	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069854	-0.42%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.0996	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064808	-0.26%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1225	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070887	-0.51%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0165	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070919	-0.60%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0397	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076255	-0.94%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0635	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075539	-1.06%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0128	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060782	-0.18%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2303	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062085	-0.21%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0069	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062051	-0.20%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0270	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068496	-0.38%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0759	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068284	-0.31%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0029	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071781	-0.37%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0516	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070877	-0.31%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0014	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083278	-0.86%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1342	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076288	-0.47%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0955	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070647	-0.17%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0738	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071387	-0.14%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0067	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070409	-0.04%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0205	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075693	-0.13%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0645	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074874	-0.05%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0226	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086573	-0.40%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1292	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088444	-0.44%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0319	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109191	-1.20%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2012	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.103637	-1.04%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0712	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097195	-1.08%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0776	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095582	-0.71%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0183	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089711	-0.41%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0677	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091547	-0.44%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0173	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087744	-0.34%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0576	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090167	-0.39%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0278	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094248	-0.50%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0487	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098349	-0.62%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0487	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.115391	-0.86%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1527	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.109339	-0.76%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0591	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111494	-0.78%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0279	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.128403	-1.14%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1384	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.136425	-1.48%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0417	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.134044	-2.13%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0461	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.131709	-1.57%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0559	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.132358	-1.72%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0022	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.120798	-1.54%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1063	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.13227	-2.61%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0647	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.112689	-1.79%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1858	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.125485	-3.95%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1136	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.109928	-3.54%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1663	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.085191	-1.17%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2637	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.089777	-1.58%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0151	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.118532	-3.83%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2441	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.155415	-6.46%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2573	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.083875	-1.94%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6792	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074211	-1.24%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1332	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064971	-1.11%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1491	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058958	-0.92%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0574	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054075	-1.12%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1281	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053191	-1.23%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0265	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.052921	-1.25%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0009	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061381	-0.90%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1457	✓	1.00