ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s4

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

59.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2427

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0145

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001351	-1.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001243	-1.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001248	-1.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001142	-0.59%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001218	-0.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001259	-1.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001239	-1.48%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001085	+0.11%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2134	✓	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001137	-0.61%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1048	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001127	+0.09%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1116	✓	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001344	-1.68%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1245	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001336	-1.55%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0518	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001224	-0.50%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0635	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.00134	-1.05%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0721	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001423	-1.55%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2383	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001532	-2.07%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2441	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001594	-2.28%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2661	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.0016	-2.26%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.0991	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001659	-2.31%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1615	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001716	-2.42%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2912	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001837	-2.69%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2386	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001825	-2.61%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2271	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001754	-2.44%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1529	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001667	-2.08%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0669	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001853	-2.74%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1660	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001926	-2.88%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1328	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001961	-2.81%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1176	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002188	-3.12%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1570	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001888	-2.37%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0099	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002096	-2.91%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.0994	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001712	-1.86%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0618	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001537	+2.44%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1428	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.00179	+0.19%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0339	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001841	+0.57%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0208	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001667	+3.85%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1302	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.00175	+3.44%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0743	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001738	+3.69%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0140	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001875	+4.03%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.2239	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001958	+2.90%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3507	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001895	+3.68%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1371	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.002004	+2.47%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1622	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002064	+1.16%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2477	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002205	+0.85%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2210	✗	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002248	+0.36%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2227	✗	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002308	+0.01%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2253	✗	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.00253	-0.62%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1960	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.00246	-0.98%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2341	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002955	-2.30%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3524	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003037	-2.33%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2817	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002271	-2.37%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0612	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002321	-2.55%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0608	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002569	-2.48%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1186	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002858	-3.03%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1731	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002486	-2.76%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0362	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002046	-2.60%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3502	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002265	-2.31%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2959	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002111	-2.53%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1337	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001882	-2.84%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2600	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002214	-2.48%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1818	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002299	-2.57%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2494	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002575	-2.47%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0312	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002533	-1.91%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1769	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002952	-3.29%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4482	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002204	-3.73%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2532	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001874	-3.88%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.2959	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001907	-3.99%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1618	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.0018	-3.90%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0770	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001876	-4.03%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0119	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002002	-4.09%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1050	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001863	-3.99%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2608	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.00212	-4.10%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0738	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.00195	-3.97%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0304	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001686	-3.70%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1486	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001652	-3.76%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1784	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.00153	-3.70%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2940	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001541	-3.73%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3483	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002036	-3.91%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0271	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001922	-3.82%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1696	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002252	-5.45%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0911	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001315	-3.03%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2766	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001315	-2.88%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2370	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001525	-3.07%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0107	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001622	-3.21%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0633	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001637	-3.46%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2683	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001685	-3.55%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1539	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001735	-3.80%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3126	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.00199	-4.16%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3783	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.00195	-4.15%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3220	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002205	-4.28%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2998	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002204	-4.81%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2461	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001452	-2.01%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1634	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001337	-1.66%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3234	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001514	-2.36%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2421	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001185	-1.04%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.5949	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001212	-0.88%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5026	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001333	-1.18%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5586	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001401	-1.59%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.4976	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001046	+0.53%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3190	✓	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001052	+0.55%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2262	✓	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001159	+0.11%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2570	✓	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001073	+2.63%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0467	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001218	+1.05%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0146	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.00133	+0.56%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0068	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001173	+2.52%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.1989	✓	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001141	+4.42%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.1041	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001071	+6.79%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0714	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001196	+4.98%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0625	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001429	+2.64%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2810	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001502	+2.76%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.2234	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001582	+2.95%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1915	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001881	+1.37%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5284	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001627	+4.63%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.4274	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001879	+3.52%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6757	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001899	+4.45%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.6142	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002258	+1.44%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5548	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002311	+1.63%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5355	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002509	+0.72%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5490	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002544	+0.66%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3630	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002356	+1.95%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4480	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002599	+0.54%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3413	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002715	+0.08%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3299	✗	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003088	-0.64%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2686	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003248	-0.71%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2953	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003622	-1.13%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3088	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.00377	-1.14%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3452	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004429	-1.78%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5940	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003895	-1.33%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3396	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003715	-1.18%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2523	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003916	-1.46%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1837	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003518	-0.97%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0246	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003534	-0.89%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0399	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003325	-0.34%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1385	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004202	-2.35%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0842	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002965	+1.52%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2657	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002824	+2.65%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2599	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.0034	+0.01%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1445	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002801	+3.38%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2296	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002676	+5.52%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.2901	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002881	+4.38%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1484	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003463	+0.62%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2146	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003856	-0.48%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3038	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003872	-1.03%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3934	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004153	-2.47%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3982	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004482	-3.41%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8238	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004884	-3.84%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0682	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005342	-4.06%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0425	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005117	-3.95%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6901	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005799	-4.80%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7428	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004299	-3.40%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2694	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004854	-4.64%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2754	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004038	-2.76%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1841	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.00427	-3.17%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2117	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003991	-1.67%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3609	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003744	-0.83%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4063	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003844	-1.07%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5020	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004186	-2.14%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0734	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004974	-3.70%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0192	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005195	-4.05%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2184	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005365	-4.37%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1772	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005369	-4.60%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2330	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005807	-4.85%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.3861	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.0057	-4.90%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3600	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005984	-4.96%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.2883	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005617	-4.99%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0236	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004735	-5.61%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1944	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005736	-5.26%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0099	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006052	-4.89%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0584	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007789	-6.54%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2572	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006243	-5.35%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0140	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004233	-2.81%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.4021	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004176	-2.44%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3243	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.