ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s4

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +1d

assessed

170

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

51.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1004

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0021

actual -0.0113

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001371	-0.22%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001257	-0.11%	0.001374	+9.18%	0.0934	✗	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001262	-0.11%	0.001259	-0.36%	0.0235	✓	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001149	+0.07%	0.001263	+9.97%	0.0978	✓	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001229	-0.05%	0.001148	-6.59%	0.0807	✓	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001274	-0.18%	0.001229	-3.68%	0.0332	✓	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001255	-0.24%	0.001277	+1.47%	0.0300	✗	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001086	+0.23%	0.001258	+16.11%	0.1356	✓	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001145	+0.06%	0.001084	-5.29%	0.0241	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001129	+0.24%	0.001144	+1.55%	0.0146	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001363	-0.29%	0.001126	-17.56%	0.1528	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001354	-0.24%	0.001367	+0.70%	0.0061	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001231	+0.10%	0.001357	+10.33%	0.0899	✓	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001354	-0.03%	0.00123	-9.19%	0.1134	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001443	-0.15%	0.001355	-6.30%	0.0318	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001559	-0.29%	0.001445	-7.58%	0.0317	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001626	-0.33%	0.001564	-4.14%	0.0348	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001633	-0.30%	0.001631	-0.37%	0.0150	✗	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001693	-0.30%	0.001638	-3.56%	0.0704	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001753	-0.32%	0.001698	-3.47%	0.0371	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.00188	-0.41%	0.001759	-6.83%	0.0596	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001867	-0.39%	0.001888	+0.75%	0.0164	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001793	-0.30%	0.001874	+4.23%	0.0461	✗	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001699	-0.17%	0.001798	+5.64%	0.0529	✗	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001898	-0.35%	0.001702	-10.66%	0.0880	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001975	-0.39%	0.001905	-3.93%	0.0372	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.00201	-0.39%	0.001983	-1.73%	0.0204	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002242	-0.69%	0.002018	-10.63%	0.0993	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001927	-0.39%	0.002258	+16.75%	0.1586	✗	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002138	-0.97%	0.001934	-10.40%	0.0620	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001737	-0.41%	0.002158	+23.77%	0.2257	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001512	+0.80%	0.001744	+16.27%	0.0256	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001792	+0.25%	0.0015	-16.06%	0.1760	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001836	+0.29%	0.001787	-2.40%	0.0353	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001621	+1.00%	0.001831	+14.08%	0.0220	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001707	+0.90%	0.001605	-5.14%	0.0663	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001692	+0.95%	0.001692	+0.95%	0.0114	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001821	+1.00%	0.001676	-7.02%	0.0329	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001917	+0.74%	0.001803	-5.28%	0.0887	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001844	+0.90%	0.001903	+4.10%	0.0407	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001968	+0.64%	0.001828	-6.54%	0.0751	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002048	+0.36%	0.001956	-4.14%	0.0596	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002192	+0.27%	0.002041	-6.66%	0.0359	✗	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002243	+0.17%	0.002186	-2.39%	0.0219	✗	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.00231	+0.09%	0.00224	-2.97%	0.0157	✗	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002544	-0.06%	0.002308	-9.35%	0.0666	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002482	-0.11%	0.002546	+2.48%	0.0134	✗	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.00301	-0.48%	0.002485	-17.85%	0.1956	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003091	-0.61%	0.003024	-2.73%	0.0166	✗	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002317	-0.40%	0.003109	+33.68%	0.2027	✗	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002372	-0.42%	0.002326	-2.35%	0.0174	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002622	-0.46%	0.002382	-9.57%	0.0700	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002925	-0.76%	0.002634	-10.62%	0.1242	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.00254	-0.66%	0.002947	+15.25%	0.1614	✗	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002091	-0.49%	0.002557	+21.70%	0.1926	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002308	-0.48%	0.002101	-9.40%	0.0415	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002156	-0.46%	0.002319	+7.06%	0.0466	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001929	-0.42%	0.002166	+11.82%	0.1053	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002262	-0.37%	0.001937	-14.67%	0.1463	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002351	-0.38%	0.00227	-3.81%	0.0599	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.00263	-0.39%	0.00236	-10.61%	0.1221	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002573	-0.34%	0.00264	+2.25%	0.0520	✗	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.003027	-0.83%	0.002582	-15.40%	0.3122	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002273	-0.71%	0.003052	+33.33%	0.2011	✗	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001937	-0.66%	0.002289	+17.38%	0.0500	✗	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001972	-0.69%	0.00195	-1.81%	0.0166	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001861	-0.63%	0.001986	+6.03%	0.0228	✗	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001942	-0.66%	0.001873	-4.19%	0.0315	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002072	-0.72%	0.001955	-6.32%	0.0593	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001927	-0.66%	0.002087	+7.58%	0.0915	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002193	-0.82%	0.00194	-12.26%	0.1229	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.002014	-0.84%	0.002211	+8.86%	0.0965	✗	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001739	-0.67%	0.002031	+15.99%	0.1653	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001705	-0.67%	0.001751	+1.98%	0.0509	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.00158	-0.58%	0.001717	+8.06%	0.0849	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001592	-0.56%	0.001589	-0.75%	0.0023	✓	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002103	-0.75%	0.001601	-24.45%	0.2884	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001982	-0.81%	0.002119	+6.06%	0.0751	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002331	-2.14%	0.001998	-16.12%	0.1671	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001348	-0.56%	0.002382	+75.66%	0.5561	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001348	-0.45%	0.001356	+0.15%	0.0068	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001565	-0.51%	0.001354	-13.92%	0.1629	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001667	-0.52%	0.001573	-6.15%	0.0567	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001687	-0.53%	0.001676	-1.18%	0.0373	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001738	-0.53%	0.001696	-2.92%	0.0436	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001793	-0.56%	0.001747	-3.11%	0.0270	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.002062	-0.68%	0.001803	-13.15%	0.1376	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.00202	-0.68%	0.002076	+2.06%	0.0652	✗	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002283	-0.92%	0.002034	-11.72%	0.1409	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002276	-1.71%	0.002304	-0.48%	0.0078	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001478	-0.29%	0.002315	+56.21%	0.4730	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001357	-0.19%	0.001482	+8.97%	0.1142	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.00154	-0.68%	0.00136	-12.31%	0.1139	✓	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001198	-0.02%	0.001551	+29.47%	0.2294	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001223	+0.01%	0.001198	-2.04%	0.0328	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001346	-0.21%	0.001223	-9.34%	0.0933	✓	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001416	-0.59%	0.001349	-5.27%	0.0694	✓	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001044	+0.33%	0.001424	+36.79%	0.3072	✓	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.00105	+0.33%	0.001041	-0.48%	0.0136	✓	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.00116	+0.17%	0.001046	-9.67%	0.0973	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001054	+0.76%	0.001158	+10.71%	0.0358	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.00121	+0.39%	0.001046	-13.20%	0.1151	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001325	+0.15%	0.001205	-8.92%	0.0943	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001152	+0.67%	0.001323	+15.65%	0.1461	✓	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001104	+1.03%	0.001144	+4.67%	0.0161	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001017	+1.43%	0.001093	+8.97%	0.0535	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001152	+1.14%	0.001003	-11.94%	0.1182	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001402	+0.72%	0.001139	-18.18%	0.1959	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001473	+0.74%	0.001392	-4.79%	0.0639	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001549	+0.77%	0.001462	-4.88%	0.0667	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001863	+0.41%	0.001537	-17.14%	0.2033	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001571	+1.04%	0.001855	+19.29%	0.1479	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.00183	+0.83%	0.001555	-14.33%	0.1952	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001836	+0.98%	0.001815	-0.17%	0.0431	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002236	+0.43%	0.001818	-18.33%	0.1750	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002284	+0.46%	0.002226	-2.11%	0.0393	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002497	+0.26%	0.002274	-8.71%	0.0849	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002533	+0.24%	0.002491	-1.42%	0.0155	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002323	+0.51%	0.002527	+9.35%	0.0788	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002592	+0.25%	0.002311	-10.60%	0.0923	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002718	+0.18%	0.002585	-4.72%	0.0220	✗	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.00311	+0.05%	0.002713	-12.71%	0.1166	✗	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003272	+0.04%	0.003108	-4.98%	0.0627	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003662	-0.04%	0.003271	-10.70%	0.0981	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003812	-0.04%	0.003663	-3.96%	0.0514	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004498	-0.25%	0.003814	-15.41%	0.1752	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003943	-0.09%	0.004509	+14.24%	0.1654	✗	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003757	-0.04%	0.003947	+5.00%	0.0733	✗	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003968	-0.15%	0.003759	-5.41%	0.0409	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003552	+0.00%	0.003974	+11.88%	0.1014	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003566	+0.00%	0.003552	-0.39%	0.0289	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.00334	+0.12%	0.003566	+6.89%	0.0486	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004265	-0.88%	0.003336	-22.47%	0.2452	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002935	+0.47%	0.004303	+47.31%	0.3682	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002771	+0.70%	0.002921	+6.16%	0.0544	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003402	+0.06%	0.002752	-19.07%	0.2072	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002731	+0.82%	0.0034	+25.51%	0.2199	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002566	+1.17%	0.002709	+6.82%	0.0564	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002787	+0.99%	0.002536	-8.12%	0.0946	✗	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003453	+0.32%	0.00276	-19.81%	0.2527	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003878	+0.09%	0.003442	-11.15%	0.1215	✗	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003913	+0.02%	0.003874	-0.97%	0.0368	✗	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004247	-0.25%	0.003912	-8.13%	0.1910	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004619	-0.46%	0.004258	-8.23%	0.1478	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.00505	-0.58%	0.00464	-8.64%	0.0903	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.00553	-0.69%	0.005079	-8.78%	0.0736	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005293	-0.66%	0.005568	+4.50%	0.0466	✗	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.006016	-1.26%	0.005328	-12.54%	0.1462	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004427	-0.51%	0.006092	+36.90%	0.2919	✗	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.00503	-1.19%	0.00445	-12.57%	0.1560	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004136	-0.42%	0.00509	+22.56%	0.2041	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004381	-0.65%	0.004153	-5.83%	0.0578	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004052	-0.18%	0.00441	+8.65%	0.0689	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003779	+0.09%	0.004059	+7.52%	0.0991	✓	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003889	+0.07%	0.003775	-2.86%	0.0306	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.00427	-0.18%	0.003886	-9.16%	0.1035	✓	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005132	-0.64%	0.004278	-17.17%	0.1797	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005375	-0.73%	0.005165	-4.62%	0.0339	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005565	-0.81%	0.005415	-3.48%	0.0183	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005581	-0.84%	0.00561	-0.32%	0.0174	✗	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.006046	-0.93%	0.005628	-7.78%	0.0465	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005938	-0.93%	0.006103	+1.82%	0.0050	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006233	-1.00%	0.005994	-4.80%	0.0242	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005854	-0.99%	0.006296	+6.50%	0.0881	✗	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004967	-0.98%	0.005912	+17.86%	0.1800	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005996	-0.96%	0.005016	-17.15%	0.1974	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006302	-0.96%	0.006054	-4.86%	0.0459	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.008112	-2.66%	0.006363	-23.65%	0.2451	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006441	-2.35%	0.008334	+26.35%	0.2754	✗	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004322	-0.79%	0.006596	+51.42%	0.4163	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004254	-0.62%	0.004356	+1.75%	0.0105	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.