ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s4

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +30d

assessed

142

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

76.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4657

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0847

actual -0.3442

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001406	-8.74%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001424	-8.10%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001183	-5.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001191	-5.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.00109	-5.10%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001161	-5.59%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001199	-6.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.00118	-6.17%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001031	-4.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.00108	-5.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001068	-5.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.00127	-7.08%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001261	-7.05%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001151	-6.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001258	-7.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001328	-8.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001421	-9.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001472	-9.79%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.00147	-10.24%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001516	-10.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.00156	-11.33%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001659	-12.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001645	-12.20%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001575	-12.43%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001491	-12.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001648	-13.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001715	-13.50%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001749	-13.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.001975	-12.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001688	-12.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.001913	-11.37%	0.001541	-28.61%	0.1748	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.00155	-11.13%	0.001549	-11.18%	0.0545	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001375	-8.32%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1279	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001616	-9.56%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.2597	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001666	-9.03%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.3970	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001495	-6.84%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3063	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001577	-6.81%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3265	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001571	-6.28%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3501	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001685	-6.53%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5043	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.00178	-6.44%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5626	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001717	-6.06%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5097	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001834	-6.26%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4186	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.00191	-6.38%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4681	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002035	-6.89%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.5873	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002078	-7.23%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5049	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002134	-7.54%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.4867	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002342	-8.00%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5276	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002284	-8.06%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.4740	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002796	-7.57%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6923	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002882	-7.33%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6101	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002123	-8.72%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3515	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002186	-8.22%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3168	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.00244	-7.35%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3710	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002737	-7.11%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5463	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002358	-7.77%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4394	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.001864	-11.27%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1202	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002097	-9.58%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1413	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.001926	-11.09%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.0574	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001665	-14.03%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.1830	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002065	-9.01%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.1639	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002179	-7.67%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.1699	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002465	-6.64%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5320	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.00243	-5.88%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5397	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002788	-8.66%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6776	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002082	-9.05%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4059	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001748	-10.36%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3664	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001773	-10.71%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3225	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001666	-11.04%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.2963	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001736	-11.20%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3157	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001851	-11.31%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.2995	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001714	-11.64%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2625	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001948	-11.89%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3293	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001789	-11.91%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.1815	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.00153	-12.60%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0104	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001477	-13.96%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0951	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001346	-15.30%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.2111	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001356	-15.28%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.3075	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001834	-13.45%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0459	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001721	-13.86%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.2331	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002019	-15.24%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0736	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.00116	-14.48%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.4176	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001153	-14.83%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.4453	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001368	-13.01%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.3074	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.00146	-12.88%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3739	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001457	-14.08%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2826	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.00151	-13.56%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0344	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001558	-13.61%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0649	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001774	-14.54%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1103	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001729	-15.00%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.1600	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001928	-16.30%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1620	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001921	-17.04%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0637	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001301	-12.20%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.4352	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001201	-11.71%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4821	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.00135	-12.93%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.6614	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001085	-9.44%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6573	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001113	-9.01%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5610	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001222	-9.38%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4926	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001295	-9.07%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3943	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.00097601	-6.24%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.7119	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.000981091	-6.21%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7950	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001086	-6.19%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6156	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.000997011	-4.68%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7716	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001145	-5.02%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5778	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001259	-4.84%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3271	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001098	-4.03%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4325	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001058	-3.25%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3724	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000978669	-2.43%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4413	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001115	-2.14%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6251	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001364	-2.03%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3715	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001435	-1.86%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.4986	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001512	-1.62%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1158	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001822	-1.78%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3160	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001541	-0.90%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0019	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001796	-1.02%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1296	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001806	-0.66%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1945	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.00219	-1.60%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2953	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002239	-1.54%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2990	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002442	-1.95%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2326	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002478	-1.95%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2954	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002272	-1.70%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0679	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002532	-2.05%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1417	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002645	-2.52%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6185	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003005	-3.31%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8245	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003156	-3.52%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7608	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003499	-4.47%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0864	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003637	-4.64%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.1083	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004221	-6.39%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1734	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003738	-5.29%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9542	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003562	-5.23%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1921	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003731	-6.11%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2402	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003373	-5.03%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0554	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003392	-4.89%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1328	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003195	-4.22%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9791	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004008	-6.85%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.1126	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002833	-3.00%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9251	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002677	-2.70%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.9059	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003254	-4.31%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1737	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002628	-2.98%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8362	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.00248	-2.21%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5749	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002688	-2.60%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6074	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003291	-4.39%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7687	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003675	-5.14%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.6989	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.00368	-5.94%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9154	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003916	-8.04%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0484	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.00421	-9.26%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3274	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004597	-9.50%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1624	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005029	-9.67%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2296	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.00481	-9.71%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0814	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005443	-10.65%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2552	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004021	-9.65%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8787	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004587	-9.88%	0.002585	-49.21%	1.0005	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003771	-9.21%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1231	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004017	-8.90%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0755	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003725	-8.22%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0465	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003461	-8.31%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2452	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003568	-8.19%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2661	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003932	-8.08%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3365	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004741	-8.20%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0061	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004955	-8.50%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1109	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005119	-8.75%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0890	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005123	-8.97%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1813	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005581	-8.55%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2181	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005457	-8.95%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2708	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005748	-8.70%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0535	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.0054	-8.66%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3293	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004472	-10.85%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.1986	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005533	-8.60%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2409	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005826	-8.44%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5293	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007422	-10.94%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.8002	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006107	-7.41%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.5058	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.003775	-13.34%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.1452	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003625	-15.32%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.2871	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.