UPROBINHOOD

? · · gru_s3

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 189

Track record at +7d

assessed

56

of 63 predictions shown

direction hit

73.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4453

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0288

actual +0.0621

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.276795	0.266136	-3.85%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.266788	-3.89%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.240716	-3.27%	–	pending	–	–	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.214585	-2.31%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.225272	-2.51%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.271486	-3.76%	–	pending	–	–	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.269579	-3.70%	–	pending	–	–	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.265223	-3.33%	0.276795	+0.88%	0.0106	✓	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.284426	-4.35%	0.277585	-6.65%	0.0198	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.201902	+1.74%	0.24885	+25.40%	0.2066	✓	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.235197	-0.48%	0.21966	-7.05%	0.0268	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.212703	+2.03%	0.23107	+10.84%	0.1208	✓	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.211148	+2.61%	0.28208	+37.08%	0.3156	✓	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.204681	+3.37%	0.279945	+41.38%	0.3024	✓	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.233611	+1.93%	0.27437	+19.71%	0.2014	✓	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.246444	+1.15%	0.297375	+22.06%	0.2447	✓	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.266319	-0.03%	0.198445	-25.51%	0.2011	✓	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.284496	-1.15%	0.23632	-17.89%	0.1217	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.287732	-0.89%	0.20848	-28.19%	0.2798	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.274125	+0.26%	0.20578	-24.74%	0.2411	✗	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.296685	-1.07%	0.19801	-33.97%	0.3315	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.389353	-4.08%	0.22919	-43.54%	0.5231	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.378184	-3.95%	0.24363	-38.12%	0.4857	✓	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.291542	+0.12%	0.266405	-8.51%	0.1466	✗	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.311948	-0.99%	0.28781	-8.65%	0.1297	✓	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.354593	-2.71%	0.290305	-20.35%	0.2078	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.330405	-1.62%	0.27341	-18.59%	0.1993	✓	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.334073	-1.73%	0.29989	-11.79%	0.1191	✓	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.382283	-3.29%	0.40591	+2.69%	0.0796	✗	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.459538	-4.85%	0.39374	-18.47%	0.0991	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.525398	-5.69%	0.291185	-47.73%	0.5246	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.44369	-3.99%	0.31507	-31.82%	0.4060	✓	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.465233	-4.20%	0.36447	-24.95%	0.3048	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.551979	-5.61%	0.33586	-42.56%	0.5578	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.457679	-3.28%	0.33996	-28.16%	0.4237	✓	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.373931	+0.04%	0.39528	+5.75%	0.0769	✗	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.324522	+1.75%	0.482965	+51.42%	0.2306	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.374362	+0.95%	0.55709	+50.22%	0.2904	✓	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.381876	+0.75%	0.46212	+21.93%	0.1314	✓	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.358663	+1.32%	0.485615	+37.19%	0.2467	✓	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.384127	+0.53%	0.58476	+53.04%	0.3692	✓	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.395126	-0.34%	0.47322	+19.36%	0.1831	✗	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.414207	-1.10%	0.37378	-10.75%	0.0750	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.48701	-2.98%	0.318955	-36.46%	0.3860	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.535909	-3.94%	0.37084	-33.53%	0.3565	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.64635	-4.84%	0.379015	-44.20%	0.4887	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.743266	-5.95%	0.353985	-55.21%	0.7091	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.599076	-5.06%	0.382085	-39.45%	0.4183	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.723835	-5.96%	0.396465	-48.49%	0.5420	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.780068	-6.93%	0.41882	-50.03%	0.6345	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.804897	-7.94%	0.50196	-42.59%	0.4857	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.828595	-9.38%	0.55791	-38.98%	0.4022	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.485723	-7.41%	0.679235	+29.47%	0.3015	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.30933	-4.63%	0.790295	+143.66%	0.9178	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.233585	-3.18%	0.63101	+161.55%	0.9705	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.256844	-2.96%	0.76968	+190.79%	1.0853	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.346381	-6.94%	0.838135	+125.17%	0.9056	✗	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.156446	-0.69%	0.87428	+454.96%	1.7352	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.194574	-2.05%	0.91438	+360.30%	1.5528	✗	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.141054	+0.11%	0.52462	+272.33%	1.3144	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.073968	-13.08%	0.32435	+281.14%	1.4630	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.104866	-5.27%	0.24126	+117.94%	0.8394	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.089137	-15.43%	0.26469	+151.13%	0.9935	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.