UPROBINHOOD

? · · gru_s3

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 189

Track record at +1d

assessed

62

of 63 predictions shown

direction hit

64.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1478

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0101

actual +0.0133

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.276795	0.274117	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.274617	-1.07%	0.276795	-0.28%	0.0148	✗	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.246827	-0.81%	0.277585	+11.55%	0.0865	✗	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.218696	-0.44%	0.24885	+13.29%	0.1340	✗	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.229936	-0.49%	0.21966	-4.94%	0.0637	✓	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.279289	-0.99%	0.23107	-18.08%	0.1861	✓	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.277147	-1.00%	0.28208	+0.76%	0.0354	✗	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.271848	-0.92%	0.279945	+2.03%	0.0135	✗	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.292458	-1.65%	0.27437	-7.74%	0.0207	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.19966	+0.61%	0.297375	+49.85%	0.3627	✓	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.236122	-0.08%	0.198445	-16.03%	0.1256	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.20987	+0.67%	0.23632	+13.35%	0.0999	✓	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.207499	+0.84%	0.20848	+1.31%	0.0043	✓	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.200096	+1.05%	0.20578	+3.92%	0.0069	✓	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.230721	+0.67%	0.19801	-13.60%	0.1153	✗	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.244775	+0.47%	0.22919	-5.93%	0.0131	✗	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.26677	+0.14%	0.24363	-8.55%	0.0860	✗	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.287263	-0.19%	0.266405	-7.44%	0.0585	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.289935	-0.13%	0.28781	-0.86%	0.0474	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.274039	+0.23%	0.290305	+6.18%	0.0522	✓	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.299542	-0.12%	0.27341	-8.83%	0.0835	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.401164	-1.17%	0.29989	-26.12%	0.3222	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.388812	-1.25%	0.40591	+3.09%	0.0450	✗	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.291737	+0.19%	0.39374	+35.22%	0.2953	✓	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.3147	-0.12%	0.291185	-7.58%	0.0530	✓	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.362133	-0.64%	0.31507	-13.55%	0.1403	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.334902	-0.29%	0.36447	+8.52%	0.0768	✗	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.339019	-0.28%	0.33586	-1.21%	0.0023	✓	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.392417	-0.72%	0.33996	-14.00%	0.1437	✓	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.476694	-1.30%	0.39528	-18.16%	0.1480	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.546677	-1.87%	0.482965	-13.31%	0.1158	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.457044	-1.10%	0.55709	+20.55%	0.0945	✗	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.479712	-1.22%	0.46212	-4.84%	0.0359	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.572028	-2.18%	0.485615	-16.95%	0.1707	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.467357	-1.24%	0.58476	+23.57%	0.1514	✗	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.373792	+0.00%	0.47322	+26.60%	0.2324	✓	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.320833	+0.59%	0.37378	+17.19%	0.1433	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.372014	+0.32%	0.318955	-13.99%	0.1186	✗	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.37986	+0.22%	0.37084	-2.16%	0.0431	✗	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.355499	+0.43%	0.379015	+7.07%	0.0708	✓	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.38282	+0.19%	0.353985	-7.35%	0.0791	✗	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.396262	-0.05%	0.382085	-3.63%	0.0461	✓	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.417807	-0.24%	0.396465	-5.34%	0.0299	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.497841	-0.82%	0.41882	-16.56%	0.1707	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.55171	-1.11%	0.50196	-10.03%	0.0863	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.668721	-1.55%	0.55791	-17.86%	0.1655	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.771138	-2.42%	0.679235	-14.05%	0.1332	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.620656	-1.64%	0.790295	+25.24%	0.2397	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.751311	-2.39%	0.63101	-18.02%	0.1548	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.81207	-3.11%	0.76968	-8.17%	0.1035	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.837602	-4.20%	0.838135	-4.13%	0.0018	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.862008	-5.73%	0.87428	-4.39%	0.0291	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.502401	-4.24%	0.91438	+74.29%	0.5874	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.316206	-2.51%	0.52462	+61.75%	0.5136	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.237783	-1.44%	0.32435	+34.44%	0.3054	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.25984	-1.83%	0.24126	-8.85%	0.0434	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.353836	-4.94%	0.26469	-28.89%	0.3060	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.15633	-0.77%	0.37223	+136.28%	0.8612	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.194187	-2.25%	0.15754	-20.69%	0.2034	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.139695	-0.86%	0.19865	+40.99%	0.3361	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.083565	-1.80%	0.1409	+65.57%	0.5137	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.109818	-0.80%	0.0851	-23.13%	0.2386	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.102968	-2.31%	0.1107	+5.03%	0.0022	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.