SWM

Swarm · · gru_s3

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +7d

assessed

48

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

64.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2603

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0277

actual +0.0240

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.09181	0.089244	-2.79%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.088859	-2.83%	–	pending	–	–	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.089323	-2.85%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.090881	-2.90%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.090748	-3.06%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.092067	-3.13%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.086048	-2.98%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.087121	-3.06%	0.09181	+2.15%	0.0738	✗	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.100084	-3.40%	0.091445	-11.74%	0.0936	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.097605	-3.34%	0.09194	-8.95%	0.0578	✓	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.096919	-3.30%	0.093595	-6.62%	0.0701	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.096765	-3.30%	0.09361	-6.45%	0.0658	✓	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.095689	-3.24%	0.09504	-3.89%	0.0292	✓	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.095855	-3.19%	0.08869	-10.43%	0.0684	✓	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.093441	-3.03%	0.089875	-6.73%	0.0754	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.095387	-3.03%	0.10361	+5.33%	0.0297	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.082544	-2.27%	0.100975	+19.55%	0.1161	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.090405	-2.64%	0.10023	+7.94%	0.0419	✗	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.088443	-2.59%	0.100065	+10.21%	0.0821	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.091142	-2.71%	0.09889	+5.56%	0.0372	✗	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.092493	-2.79%	0.099015	+4.07%	0.0038	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.104765	-3.16%	0.096365	-10.92%	0.0898	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.122398	-3.43%	0.098365	-22.39%	0.1761	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.1195	-3.27%	0.084465	-31.63%	0.2958	✓	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.152174	-3.80%	0.092855	-41.30%	0.4440	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.123972	-3.07%	0.090795	-29.01%	0.3036	✓	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.10291	-2.38%	0.09368	-11.14%	0.0841	✓	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.10165	-2.27%	0.095145	-8.52%	0.0551	✓	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.101494	-2.30%	0.10818	+4.14%	0.0440	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.092694	-2.24%	0.12674	+33.67%	0.2543	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.100152	-2.61%	0.123535	+20.12%	0.1367	✗	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.10928	-3.39%	0.15819	+39.84%	0.4550	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.114591	-3.63%	0.127905	+7.56%	0.1924	✗	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.114668	-4.12%	0.10542	-11.86%	0.0003	✓	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.123764	-4.29%	0.10401	-19.57%	0.2740	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.134365	-4.33%	0.10388	-26.03%	0.3600	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.123579	-4.80%	0.094815	-26.96%	0.3964	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.148641	-4.55%	0.10284	-33.96%	0.4707	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.149223	-4.72%	0.11312	-27.77%	0.3322	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.176514	-4.87%	0.11891	-35.91%	0.4452	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.185997	-5.15%	0.1196	-39.01%	0.4880	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.175903	-5.38%	0.12931	-30.44%	0.3053	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.131209	-4.02%	0.14044	+2.74%	0.0957	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.131587	-4.07%	0.129815	-5.36%	0.0236	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.113393	-3.48%	0.15573	+32.55%	0.3289	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.100171	-2.67%	0.156615	+52.18%	0.4920	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076038	-1.22%	0.18555	+141.04%	0.9248	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.07501	-0.83%	0.196105	+159.26%	0.9925	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.073223	-0.09%	0.18591	+153.66%	0.9917	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.07016	+0.06%	0.1367	+94.95%	0.6545	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.070161	+0.55%	0.13717	+96.57%	0.6570	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.070274	+1.17%	0.117485	+69.14%	0.5072	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.072196	+1.06%	0.102915	+44.06%	0.3207	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.072661	+1.40%	0.07698	+7.42%	0.0375	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.075502	+1.17%	0.07564	+1.35%	0.0215	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.