SWM

Swarm · · gru_s3

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

45.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0734

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0128

actual +0.0044

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.089959	-1.07%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.090021	-0.89%	0.090935	+0.12%	0.0137	✗	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.09068	-0.84%	0.090825	-0.68%	0.0219	✗	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091222	-0.78%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0235	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.092804	-0.85%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0126	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.092856	-0.81%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0200	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094209	-0.87%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0087	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088035	-0.74%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0647	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089223	-0.73%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0046	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102418	-1.15%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1622	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.099999	-0.97%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0639	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099218	-1.01%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0233	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099141	-0.92%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0271	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098097	-0.80%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0276	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098308	-0.71%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0242	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095703	-0.69%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0003	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097565	-0.81%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0615	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.083827	-0.76%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1556	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092057	-0.86%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1023	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.089935	-0.95%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0710	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.092678	-1.07%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0152	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.093995	-1.21%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0111	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107039	-1.05%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0893	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.125398	-1.06%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1496	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122286	-1.01%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0399	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.155973	-1.40%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2582	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.126568	-1.05%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2241	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.104167	-1.19%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2131	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.102521	-1.43%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0209	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.102108	-1.71%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0186	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.092491	-2.45%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0747	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.100327	-2.44%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0656	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.110635	-2.20%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0653	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.116213	-2.27%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0289	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.116678	-2.44%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0285	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.126462	-2.20%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1134	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.137429	-2.14%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0636	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.126832	-2.30%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0945	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.152409	-2.13%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1268	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.153293	-2.12%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0020	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.181416	-2.23%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1410	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.191312	-2.44%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0313	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.18103	-2.63%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0712	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.13397	-2.00%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3502	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.134243	-2.13%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0202	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.115256	-1.90%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1822	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101232	-1.64%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1645	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076492	-0.63%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2904	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.0753	-0.45%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0201	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.073059	-0.32%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0545	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069978	-0.20%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0037	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069642	-0.20%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0080	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069282	-0.26%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0221	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071155	-0.40%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0356	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071252	-0.57%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0099	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.074047	-0.78%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0378	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.