NIULAI

? · · gru_s3

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +7d

assessed

48

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

72.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1801

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0218

actual -0.0428

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.06254	0.061426	-1.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.061459	-1.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.057524	-0.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.058388	-0.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.059204	-0.42%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.064338	-1.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.066578	-1.19%	–	pending	–	–	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.068769	-1.24%	0.06254	-10.18%	0.1158	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.073338	-1.73%	0.0625	-16.25%	0.1570	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.071224	-1.16%	0.05795	-19.58%	0.2080	✓	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.077797	-1.86%	0.058765	-25.87%	0.2523	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.078661	-1.77%	0.059455	-25.75%	0.2537	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.07351	-0.92%	0.065015	-12.37%	0.1049	✓	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.072723	-0.52%	0.06738	-7.82%	0.0837	✓	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.071495	-0.26%	0.06963	-2.87%	0.0035	✗	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.078191	-1.12%	0.07463	-5.62%	0.0074	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.07621	-0.77%	0.07206	-6.17%	0.0093	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.081363	-1.20%	0.07927	-3.74%	0.0180	✗	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.079436	-0.84%	0.080075	-0.04%	0.0371	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.086384	-1.33%	0.07419	-15.26%	0.1211	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.097388	-1.90%	0.0731	-26.36%	0.2386	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.102633	-2.09%	0.071685	-31.61%	0.3544	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.102954	-2.07%	0.079075	-24.78%	0.2934	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.112957	-2.49%	0.0768	-33.70%	0.4210	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.101973	-1.98%	0.08235	-20.84%	0.2467	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.103701	-2.02%	0.08011	-24.31%	0.2634	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.10229	-1.93%	0.08755	-16.06%	0.1623	✓	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.098902	-1.73%	0.09927	-1.36%	0.0038	✓	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.105277	-1.99%	0.104825	-2.41%	0.0090	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.109956	-2.11%	0.10513	-6.41%	0.0054	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.105702	-1.92%	0.115845	+7.49%	0.1405	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.099223	-1.85%	0.10403	+2.91%	0.0112	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.10558	-2.16%	0.10584	-1.92%	0.0528	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.116405	-2.69%	0.104305	-12.80%	0.1656	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.103394	-2.71%	0.10064	-5.30%	0.1271	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.097917	-2.62%	0.10741	+6.82%	0.0101	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.115567	-3.46%	0.112325	-6.17%	0.1599	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.118149	-3.35%	0.10777	-11.84%	0.1942	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.113089	-3.42%	0.10109	-13.66%	0.1674	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.129301	-4.17%	0.107915	-20.02%	0.2309	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.120718	-4.01%	0.11962	-4.89%	0.0555	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.11591	-4.51%	0.10627	-12.45%	0.0844	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.077527	-1.35%	0.10055	+27.95%	0.2877	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.098955	-3.10%	0.11971	+17.22%	0.2276	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.080223	-1.75%	0.12225	+49.72%	0.4329	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.088956	-2.27%	0.11709	+28.64%	0.3199	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.115139	-4.50%	0.134925	+11.92%	0.1913	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.082486	-1.94%	0.125765	+49.51%	0.4532	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.093674	-2.74%	0.12138	+26.03%	0.3190	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.076334	-1.91%	0.078585	+0.98%	0.0165	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.081384	-2.37%	0.102125	+22.51%	0.2136	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.098384	-4.36%	0.08165	-20.63%	0.1932	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.095453	-5.94%	0.09102	-10.31%	0.0814	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.055263	+0.59%	0.12056	+119.44%	0.7598	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.056261	+0.36%	0.08412	+50.05%	0.3789	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.