NIULAI

? · · gru_s3

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

56.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0910

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0072

actual +0.0001

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.06274	0.062421	-0.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-21	oos	0.062305	0.062033	-0.44%	0.06274	+0.70%	0.0078	✗	1.54
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.062256	-0.39%	0.062305	-0.31%	0.0194	✓	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.057897	-0.09%	0.0625	+7.85%	0.0560	✗	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.058726	-0.07%	0.05795	-1.39%	0.0101	✓	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.059457	+0.00%	0.058765	-1.16%	0.0234	✗	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.064902	-0.17%	0.059455	-8.55%	0.0855	✓	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.067233	-0.22%	0.065015	-3.51%	0.0221	✓	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.069463	-0.24%	0.06738	-3.23%	0.0408	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.074312	-0.43%	0.06963	-6.70%	0.0376	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.071894	-0.23%	0.07463	+3.57%	0.0130	✗	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.078892	-0.48%	0.07206	-9.10%	0.0578	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.079689	-0.48%	0.07927	-1.01%	0.0182	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.07406	-0.18%	0.080075	+7.93%	0.0719	✗	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.07305	-0.07%	0.07419	+1.49%	0.0009	✗	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.071696	+0.01%	0.0731	+1.97%	0.0471	✓	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.07887	-0.26%	0.071685	-9.35%	0.0591	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.076694	-0.14%	0.079075	+2.96%	0.0339	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.082117	-0.28%	0.0768	-6.74%	0.0553	✓	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.079984	-0.16%	0.08235	+2.80%	0.0017	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.087284	-0.30%	0.08011	-8.50%	0.0895	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.098775	-0.50%	0.08755	-11.81%	0.1155	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.104216	-0.58%	0.09927	-5.30%	0.0688	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.104529	-0.57%	0.104825	-0.29%	0.0041	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.114911	-0.81%	0.10513	-9.25%	0.0918	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.103437	-0.57%	0.115845	+11.36%	0.1298	✗	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.105207	-0.60%	0.10403	-1.71%	0.0120	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.103711	-0.57%	0.10584	+1.47%	0.0151	✗	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.100154	-0.48%	0.104305	+3.64%	0.0454	✗	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.106778	-0.59%	0.10064	-6.30%	0.0593	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.111586	-0.66%	0.10741	-4.38%	0.0102	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.107141	-0.58%	0.112325	+4.23%	0.0533	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.100554	-0.53%	0.10777	+6.61%	0.0258	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.107229	-0.64%	0.10109	-6.32%	0.0577	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.118558	-0.89%	0.107915	-9.79%	0.1004	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.105402	-0.82%	0.11962	+12.56%	0.0689	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.099827	-0.72%	0.10627	+5.69%	0.0599	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.118433	-1.07%	0.10055	-16.01%	0.1711	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.120923	-1.09%	0.11971	-2.08%	0.0236	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.115863	-1.05%	0.12225	+4.41%	0.0359	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.132868	-1.52%	0.11709	-13.22%	0.1204	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.123817	-1.55%	0.134925	+7.28%	0.0852	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.11886	-2.08%	0.125765	+3.61%	0.0477	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.078239	-0.44%	0.12138	+54.46%	0.4617	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.100846	-1.25%	0.078585	-23.05%	0.2473	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.081143	-0.62%	0.102125	+25.08%	0.2382	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.090249	-0.85%	0.08165	-10.29%	0.0845	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.117963	-2.15%	0.09102	-24.50%	0.2656	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.08345	-0.80%	0.12056	+43.32%	0.3659	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.095023	-1.34%	0.08412	-12.66%	0.1021	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.077214	-0.78%	0.09631	+23.76%	0.1711	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.082467	-1.07%	0.07782	-6.65%	0.0568	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.100383	-2.42%	0.08336	-18.97%	0.1709	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.097459	-3.96%	0.10287	+1.37%	0.0425	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.054812	-0.23%	0.10148	+84.71%	0.6233	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.055821	-0.43%	0.05494	-2.00%	0.0210	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.