MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s3

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 135

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 45 predictions shown

direction hit

47.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1498

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0005

actual -0.0513

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001936	0.001917	-1.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.82
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001786	-0.76%	0.001936	+7.59%	0.0832	✗	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001923	-0.99%	0.0018	-7.34%	0.0780	✓	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001776	-0.57%	0.001942	+8.73%	0.0913	✗	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002071	-1.08%	0.001786	-14.71%	0.1555	✓	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002326	-1.51%	0.002094	-11.33%	0.1036	✓	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.00238	-1.78%	0.002361	-2.54%	0.0005	✓	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002221	-1.41%	0.002423	+7.55%	0.0807	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.002027	-0.77%	0.002253	+10.28%	0.1261	✗	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002134	-0.96%	0.002043	-5.18%	0.0620	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001829	-0.04%	0.002155	+17.76%	0.1989	✗	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001831	+0.11%	0.001829	+0.03%	0.0145	✗	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001853	+0.22%	0.001829	-1.05%	0.0193	✗	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002102	-0.15%	0.001849	-12.19%	0.1442	✓	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002396	-0.68%	0.002105	-12.73%	0.1016	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.002368	-0.51%	0.002412	+1.34%	0.0631	✗	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002833	-1.54%	0.00238	-17.27%	0.1702	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.002321	-0.23%	0.002877	+23.66%	0.2309	✗	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001736	+1.04%	0.002327	+35.42%	0.2636	✓	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001705	+1.22%	0.001718	+1.99%	0.0036	✓	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.00171	+1.31%	0.001685	-0.21%	0.0092	✓	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002418	+1.18%	0.001688	-29.37%	0.3860	✗	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003118	+0.77%	0.00239	-22.77%	0.2644	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003649	+0.36%	0.003095	-14.88%	0.1684	✗	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003686	+0.44%	0.003635	-0.94%	0.0018	✓	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.00455	-0.31%	0.00367	-19.59%	0.2155	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004913	-0.58%	0.004564	-7.64%	0.0774	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004494	-0.02%	0.004941	+9.93%	0.0984	✗	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004589	+0.03%	0.004495	-2.01%	0.0207	✗	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004837	-0.10%	0.004587	-5.27%	0.0317	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005325	-0.43%	0.004842	-9.46%	0.0905	✓	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004491	+0.58%	0.005348	+19.78%	0.1098	✓	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004305	+0.85%	0.004465	+4.59%	0.0373	✓	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005624	+0.38%	0.004269	-23.81%	0.2802	✗	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005542	+0.59%	0.005603	+1.71%	0.0466	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004387	+0.98%	0.005509	+26.82%	0.2251	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.005971	+0.83%	0.004344	-26.65%	0.3255	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008569	+0.25%	0.005922	-30.71%	0.3357	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006341	+0.87%	0.008547	+35.96%	0.2808	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008464	+0.72%	0.006287	-25.20%	0.2914	✗	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006316	-0.71%	0.008404	+32.11%	0.2849	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008462	+0.11%	0.006361	-24.74%	0.2941	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010477	-0.07%	0.008453	-19.38%	0.1921	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017888	+0.19%	0.010485	-41.28%	0.5321	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.018027	+0.12%	0.017855	-0.83%	0.0014	✗	1.00