BTW
Bitway · Ethereum · gru_s3
- token id
- #40
- symbol
- BTW
- variant
- –
- chain
- Ethereum
- address
- 0x3a63de3572c69a1307ff08394f3ee7702c16d25d
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-24
- predictions
- 150
Track record at +1d
assessed
49
of 50 predictions shown
direction hit
38.8%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1135
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0110
actual +0.0275
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 2.1044 | 2.0792 | -1.20% | – | pending | – | – | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 2.0432 | 2.0197 | -1.15% | 2.1044 | +3.00% | 0.0367 | ✗ | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 1.9664 | 1.9446 | -1.11% | 2.0432 | +3.91% | 0.0696 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 2.4152 | 2.3777 | -1.55% | 1.9664 | -18.58% | 0.1931 | ✓ | -1.54 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 2.4383 | 2.3868 | -2.11% | 2.4152 | -0.95% | 0.0235 | ✗ | -1.53 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 1.9279 | 1.8983 | -1.53% | 2.4383 | +26.48% | 0.2481 | ✗ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 1.8166 | 1.7968 | -1.09% | 1.9279 | +6.12% | 0.0590 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 2.3803 | 2.3211 | -2.49% | 1.8166 | -23.68% | 0.2355 | ✓ | -1.40 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 2.0884 | 2.0339 | -2.61% | 2.3803 | +13.98% | 0.1326 | ✗ | -1.32 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 1.7495 | 1.7178 | -1.82% | 2.0884 | +19.36% | 0.2196 | ✗ | -1.47 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 1.6258 | 1.5994 | -1.62% | 1.7495 | +7.61% | 0.0556 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 1.5842 | 1.5616 | -1.43% | 1.6258 | +2.62% | 0.0537 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 1.5753 | 1.55 | -1.60% | 1.5842 | +0.57% | 0.0283 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 1.3928 | 1.3744 | -1.32% | 1.5753 | +13.10% | 0.1522 | ✗ | -1.52 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 1.2975 | 1.2812 | -1.26% | 1.3928 | +7.34% | 0.0548 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 1.2135 | 1.2003 | -1.09% | 1.2975 | +6.93% | 0.0377 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 1.2336 | 1.2189 | -1.19% | 1.2135 | -1.63% | 0.0082 | ✓ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 1.2458 | 1.2291 | -1.34% | 1.2336 | -0.98% | 0.0099 | ✓ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 1.0377 | 1.0278 | -0.95% | 1.2458 | +20.05% | 0.2289 | ✗ | -1.77 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 1.3815 | 1.361 | -1.48% | 1.0377 | -24.89% | 0.2663 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 1.4183 | 1.3953 | -1.62% | 1.3815 | -2.59% | 0.0172 | ✓ | -1.78 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 1.329 | 1.3077 | -1.60% | 1.4183 | +6.72% | 0.1093 | ✗ | -1.83 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 1.3887 | 1.3618 | -1.94% | 1.329 | -4.31% | 0.0263 | ✓ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 1.1192 | 1.1025 | -1.49% | 1.3887 | +24.08% | 0.2348 | ✗ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 1.2207 | 1.2009 | -1.62% | 1.1192 | -8.31% | 0.0942 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 1.0015 | 0.991351 | -1.02% | 1.2207 | +21.88% | 0.2092 | ✗ | -1.96 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 1.3154 | 1.2758 | -3.01% | 1.0015 | -23.86% | 0.2346 | ✓ | -1.93 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.9544 | 0.942513 | -1.25% | 1.3154 | +37.82% | 0.3270 | ✗ | -1.82 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 1.0378 | 1.0168 | -2.02% | 0.9544 | -8.04% | 0.0632 | ✓ | -1.84 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.8978 | 0.887318 | -1.17% | 1.0378 | +15.59% | 0.1780 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.8007 | 0.791431 | -1.16% | 0.8978 | +12.13% | 0.1307 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.74705 | 0.73694 | -1.35% | 0.8007 | +7.18% | 0.0182 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.5903 | 0.587543 | -0.47% | 0.74705 | +26.55% | 0.2411 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.6302 | 0.626969 | -0.51% | 0.5903 | -6.33% | 0.0647 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.7199 | 0.713809 | -0.85% | 0.6302 | -12.46% | 0.1822 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.7502 | 0.741853 | -1.11% | 0.7199 | -4.04% | 0.0327 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.70505 | 0.697323 | -1.10% | 0.7502 | +6.40% | 0.0657 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.5826 | 0.580327 | -0.39% | 0.70505 | +21.02% | 0.2284 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.73445 | 0.717732 | -2.28% | 0.5826 | -20.68% | 0.2263 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.5503 | 0.548147 | -0.39% | 0.73445 | +33.46% | 0.2986 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.5088 | 0.508126 | -0.13% | 0.5503 | +8.16% | 0.0790 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.50005 | 0.498765 | -0.26% | 0.5088 | +1.75% | 0.0112 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.4511 | 0.452266 | +0.26% | 0.50005 | +10.85% | 0.1230 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.43775 | 0.439336 | +0.36% | 0.4511 | +3.05% | 0.0285 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.45105 | 0.452544 | +0.33% | 0.43775 | -2.95% | 0.0251 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.4474 | 0.4494 | +0.45% | 0.45105 | +0.82% | 0.0193 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.4522 | 0.453793 | +0.35% | 0.4474 | -1.06% | 0.0205 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.45655 | 0.457712 | +0.25% | 0.4522 | -0.95% | 0.0141 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.4544 | 0.455324 | +0.20% | 0.45655 | +0.47% | 0.0224 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.4896 | 0.48768 | -0.39% | 0.4544 | -7.19% | 0.1206 | ✓ | 1.00 |