BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s3

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

52.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1398

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0309

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.049918	-1.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049219	-1.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046484	-1.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.047884	-1.95%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.051891	-2.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054723	-2.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.04419	-0.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043425	-0.89%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1457	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047419	-0.93%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0571	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054032	-1.24%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1327	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.064978	-1.90%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2726	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.066518	-2.24%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2134	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.066906	-2.36%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1692	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.06456	-2.13%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3735	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.065961	-2.27%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.3954	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.065789	-2.00%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.2959	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.0614	-1.24%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0792	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.061636	-1.25%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.0984	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.060936	-1.51%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1278	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.061755	-1.73%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1228	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.063878	-2.06%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0620	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064636	-2.30%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0458	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.065364	-2.30%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0130	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.065677	-2.25%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0753	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069206	-2.47%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1162	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.069396	-2.45%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1169	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.067758	-2.10%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.0779	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.065724	-1.74%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0104	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.062849	-1.26%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0563	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.067847	-1.56%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0029	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.067292	-1.30%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0240	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065197	-1.43%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0585	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.064677	-1.27%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0699	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064413	-1.18%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0477	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.061638	-1.32%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0248	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060708	-1.16%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0117	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062333	-1.37%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0477	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062128	-0.82%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0510	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061271	-0.90%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0536	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063426	-0.94%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0109	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063726	-0.81%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0020	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.06028	-0.51%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0365	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061849	-0.13%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0039	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067266	-0.60%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0434	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067209	-0.34%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0643	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067282	-0.18%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0613	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068578	-0.26%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0512	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068702	+0.07%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0491	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070277	+0.93%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1150	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.066699	-0.85%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0809	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067029	-0.65%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0021	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068594	+0.32%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0199	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067933	+0.14%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0259	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070896	+0.42%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0411	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071778	+0.42%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0567	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.074372	+1.52%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0722	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.073019	+1.11%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0710	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069487	+0.69%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0223	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072669	+0.55%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0583	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.07346	+0.01%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0791	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074264	-0.24%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0589	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090416	-0.57%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2321	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082549	-1.93%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1552	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.078342	-2.98%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1431	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.075241	-4.73%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.1843	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.073815	-4.66%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1287	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.074007	-5.10%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1253	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.0758	-4.98%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1289	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.071985	-4.13%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.1112	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.072351	-4.01%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0732	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.073479	-4.00%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0353	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.073627	-3.96%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0588	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.074404	-3.80%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0334	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.071784	-3.07%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.1054	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.074658	-3.31%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0872	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.075121	-3.55%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0210	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.080734	-4.16%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0586	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.077425	-3.83%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0028	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.074248	-3.21%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0379	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.074127	-3.08%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0374	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.073716	-2.84%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0098	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.073242	-2.60%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0309	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.076755	-2.89%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0063	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.077262	-2.83%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0912	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.077935	-2.82%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0253	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.077091	-2.68%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0069	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.077192	-2.68%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0070	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.084336	-3.11%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.0900	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.082056	-2.98%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0748	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.081918	-2.96%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0256	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.074084	-2.43%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0737	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.08178	-2.93%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0006	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.082781	-3.08%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0204	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.083035	-3.26%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0349	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.087036	-3.56%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0052	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.08865	-3.77%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0410	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.08821	-3.83%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0464	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.087725	-3.95%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1633	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.085847	-4.05%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0332	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.083677	-4.24%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0015	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.090506	-4.45%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1010	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.097102	-4.97%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.0877	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.093296	-5.09%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0295	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.098409	-5.34%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.0669	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.10501	-5.75%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1488	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.082777	-4.91%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0439	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.080602	-5.22%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0593	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.089756	-5.37%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0758	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.08744	-5.33%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1536	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.087189	-5.25%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.1102	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.090013	-5.21%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.1216	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.095879	-5.28%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.1253	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.121011	-7.29%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.3712	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.094419	-5.77%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.1767	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.077756	-4.29%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1307	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.077197	-4.28%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.1212	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.071953	-3.90%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.2005	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.06445	-3.82%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3511	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.068288	-3.94%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3672	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.079632	-4.54%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.5079	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.093811	-5.71%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.1130	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.08938	-5.16%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0505	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.088903	-5.19%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0522	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.084155	-4.86%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0635	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.092346	-5.61%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.2750	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.09016	-5.42%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.1958	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.074697	-3.98%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1648	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.073127	-3.95%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3547	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.075166	-4.34%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2621	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.069097	-3.43%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3428	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.06693	-3.14%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2819	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.072227	-3.59%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.3045	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.070623	-3.42%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.3109	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.061532	-2.11%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1938	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.063147	-2.32%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1344	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.063105	-2.53%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1759	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.067984	-3.06%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0189	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.064837	-2.35%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0167	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.061028	-1.79%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1718	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.061639	-2.21%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1742	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.06805	-2.99%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0434	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.063329	-2.54%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.1044	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.068673	-3.62%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0694	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.068667	-3.76%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1898	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.073591	-4.40%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.1102	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.073025	-4.35%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0417	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.05984	-1.72%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2154	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.061102	-1.79%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.3104	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061142	-1.66%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2166	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.067063	-2.46%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1504	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.066943	-2.27%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1145	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.070155	-2.63%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1360	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.069465	-2.30%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1258	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.080595	-4.05%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2340	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.074608	-2.66%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1449	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.069722	-1.48%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1041	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.070529	-1.34%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0288	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.069774	-0.95%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0136	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.074719	-1.41%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0209	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074163	-1.00%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0018	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.08471	-2.54%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0189	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.086688	-2.41%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1080	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.104777	-5.20%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.3760	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.100462	-4.08%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3131	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.095424	-2.89%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2727	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.094408	-1.93%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.2039	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089393	-0.76%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1699	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091123	-0.91%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0537	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.088094	+0.06%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0245	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090183	-0.37%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2065	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.093383	-1.41%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.0999	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.09628	-2.71%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0106	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.111372	-4.31%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1604	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.105336	-4.40%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1710	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.106238	-5.46%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.1749	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.121736	-6.28%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.3736	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.12944	-6.52%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4160	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.127732	-6.74%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3307	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.125716	-6.05%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2378	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.125997	-6.44%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.0925	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.115255	-6.06%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0550	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.126509	-6.86%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.0930	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.108219	-5.68%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.2144	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.120029	-8.13%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.1433	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.104925	-7.93%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2469	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.081544	-5.40%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4316	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.086382	-5.30%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.4191	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.113645	-7.79%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0718	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.146869	-11.60%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1189	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.080628	-5.74%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.3087	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.071859	-4.37%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5690	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.063341	-3.59%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5684	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.057529	-3.32%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3619	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.053005	-3.07%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.5073	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.052111	-3.24%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.8062	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.051685	-3.55%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1219	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.059807	-3.44%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.3064	✗	1.00