BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s3

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

52.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0602

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0088

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050617	-0.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049896	-0.46%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0216	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047175	-0.40%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0495	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048637	-0.41%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0248	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052723	-0.62%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0830	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055534	-0.83%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0446	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044534	-0.15%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2360	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043766	-0.11%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0128	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047793	-0.15%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0713	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054565	-0.27%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1456	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.0659	-0.51%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1710	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067634	-0.60%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0272	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068079	-0.65%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0035	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065546	-0.64%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0373	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.066987	-0.75%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0027	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066639	-0.73%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0332	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061919	-0.40%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0827	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062164	-0.40%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0071	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061605	-0.43%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0034	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062552	-0.46%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0132	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064875	-0.54%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0287	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065782	-0.57%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0203	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066503	-0.59%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0046	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066803	-0.58%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0002	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070443	-0.73%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0408	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070525	-0.86%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0059	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068792	-0.61%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0315	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066549	-0.51%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0410	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063414	-0.37%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0533	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068576	-0.51%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0625	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.067857	-0.47%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0188	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065842	-0.46%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0076	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065225	-0.43%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0146	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064939	-0.37%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0060	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062238	-0.36%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0134	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061216	-0.33%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0186	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.06295	-0.40%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0276	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062487	-0.25%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0252	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061667	-0.26%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0084	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063846	-0.29%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0295	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064042	-0.32%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0005	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060493	-0.16%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0567	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061859	-0.11%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0119	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067511	-0.23%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0852	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.06731	-0.19%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0096	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067298	-0.16%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0102	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068626	-0.19%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0213	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068568	-0.13%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0016	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069657	+0.04%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0035	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067046	-0.33%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0113	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067272	-0.29%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0006	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068302	-0.11%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0059	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067736	-0.15%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0032	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070512	-0.12%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0349	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071385	-0.13%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0137	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.07328	+0.03%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0089	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072194	-0.03%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0068	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068975	-0.05%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0427	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072206	-0.09%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0425	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073319	-0.18%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0230	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.07426	-0.24%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0157	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090359	-0.63%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1863	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083643	-0.63%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0570	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080093	-0.81%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0252	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078061	-1.16%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0010	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.076555	-1.12%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0294	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.076927	-1.36%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0079	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.078619	-1.44%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0065	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074338	-1.00%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0701	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.074636	-0.98%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0100	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.075779	-0.99%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0055	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.07589	-1.00%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0097	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.07654	-1.03%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0059	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073479	-0.78%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0616	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076546	-0.87%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0324	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077157	-0.94%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0006	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083273	-1.15%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0743	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.079644	-1.08%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0601	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076073	-0.83%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0505	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.075872	-0.80%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0044	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075321	-0.72%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0156	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.07471	-0.64%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0078	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078441	-0.76%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0416	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.0789	-0.77%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0220	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079579	-0.77%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0092	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078653	-0.70%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0190	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.078764	-0.70%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0042	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086269	-0.89%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0700	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.08387	-0.84%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0287	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.083703	-0.84%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0087	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075451	-0.63%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1210	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083578	-0.80%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0871	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.08471	-0.82%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0017	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085105	-0.85%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0056	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089399	-0.94%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0449	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091204	-0.99%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0091	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.090808	-0.99%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0030	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.090381	-1.04%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0129	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.088542	-1.04%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0412	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.086483	-1.03%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0374	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.093658	-1.13%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1138	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.100874	-1.28%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0397	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097099	-1.23%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0516	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.102534	-1.37%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0369	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.109348	-1.86%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0654	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086017	-1.19%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2458	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084073	-1.14%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0492	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.093672	-1.24%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0882	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091237	-1.22%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0330	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.090918	-1.20%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0087	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.093802	-1.22%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0272	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.099828	-1.38%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0653	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.126352	-3.20%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2499	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.098	-2.20%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2644	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.08042	-1.02%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2502	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079686	-1.20%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0094	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.07419	-0.91%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0903	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066554	-0.68%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1188	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070582	-0.71%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0564	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.08258	-1.01%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1325	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.097711	-1.79%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1395	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.09305	-1.27%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0821	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092437	-1.42%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0111	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087426	-1.16%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0820	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096048	-1.83%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0919	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.093594	-1.82%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0367	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077046	-0.96%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2372	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075405	-0.96%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0494	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077541	-1.32%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0082	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.070973	-0.81%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0933	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068601	-0.72%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0232	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.07419	-0.97%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0851	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072433	-0.94%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0342	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062559	-0.48%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1271	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064302	-0.54%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0194	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064367	-0.58%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0236	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069582	-0.78%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0689	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.06602	-0.57%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0279	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.0619	-0.39%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0726	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062735	-0.47%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0297	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069616	-0.76%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.0962	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064617	-0.56%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1254	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070626	-0.88%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0128	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070696	-0.92%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0428	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076017	-1.24%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0604	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075271	-1.41%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0163	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060696	-0.32%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2317	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062005	-0.34%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0056	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061995	-0.29%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0279	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068383	-0.54%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0743	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068177	-0.47%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0045	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071645	-0.56%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0497	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070782	-0.45%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0000	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083032	-1.15%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1312	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076129	-0.68%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0976	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070574	-0.28%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0748	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071317	-0.24%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0058	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070368	-0.10%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0210	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075622	-0.22%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0636	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074869	-0.06%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0227	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086471	-0.52%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1280	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.08839	-0.50%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0313	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.108743	-1.61%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.1971	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.103451	-1.22%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0730	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097229	-1.05%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0773	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095669	-0.62%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0174	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089936	-0.16%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0652	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091756	-0.22%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0195	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.088118	+0.08%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0534	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090492	-0.03%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0314	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094424	-0.31%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0506	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098304	-0.66%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0483	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.114955	-1.23%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1489	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.108959	-1.11%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0626	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.110948	-1.27%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0230	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.127739	-1.66%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1332	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.135927	-1.84%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0380	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.133872	-2.26%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0474	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.13125	-1.91%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0594	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.131874	-2.08%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.12045	-1.82%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1092	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.132289	-2.60%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0648	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.11265	-1.82%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1861	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.126001	-3.56%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1177	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.1099	-3.56%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1666	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.084931	-1.47%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2667	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.089746	-1.62%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0147	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.118923	-3.51%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2474	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.155523	-6.40%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2580	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.083463	-2.42%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6841	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.073959	-1.58%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1366	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064819	-1.34%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1514	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058946	-0.94%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0576	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054252	-0.79%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1248	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053431	-0.79%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0220	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053161	-0.80%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0036	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061418	-0.84%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1463	✓	1.00