BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s3

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

168

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

65.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2331

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1101

actual -0.0915

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.051649	-4.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.051816	-4.62%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.047784	-4.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.044829	-5.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.046102	-5.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.049785	-6.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.052567	-6.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.043005	-3.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.042046	-4.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.046228	-3.42%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.05242	-4.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.06259	-5.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.063544	-6.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.063722	-7.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.061799	-6.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.063233	-6.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.06373	-5.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.060303	-3.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.060669	-2.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.05964	-3.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.060244	-4.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.061876	-5.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.062206	-5.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.063033	-5.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.063399	-5.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.066627	-6.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.067123	-5.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.065786	-4.95%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.06445	-3.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.062474	-1.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.067092	-2.66%	0.054285	-21.24%	0.1987	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.06715	-1.51%	0.054325	-20.32%	0.1911	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.064355	-2.71%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2641	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.064106	-2.14%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3075	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.063782	-2.14%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.2756	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.060239	-3.56%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1634	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.059459	-3.19%	0.056	-8.82%	0.0990	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.060619	-4.08%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3402	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.061255	-2.22%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3525	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.060087	-2.82%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2601	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.0621	-3.01%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1508	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.062551	-2.64%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0216	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.0592	-2.29%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.1072	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061297	-1.02%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.0908	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.066012	-2.45%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0214	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.066325	-1.65%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0093	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.066697	-1.05%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0259	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.067872	-1.28%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1259	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068452	-0.30%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1392	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070992	+1.96%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1609	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.065501	-2.63%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.0888	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.066118	-2.00%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.0641	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.069036	+0.97%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0690	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.068295	+0.67%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0603	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.071836	+1.75%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.1002	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.073241	+2.46%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0744	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.078659	+7.37%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.1266	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.077267	+7.00%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.1411	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.073309	+6.23%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.1276	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.076886	+6.38%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.2211	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.076686	+4.41%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1626	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.077081	+3.55%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.1862	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.093153	+2.44%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3587	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.080654	-4.18%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.2482	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.074161	-8.15%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.2016	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.067771	-14.19%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.1653	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.066368	-14.28%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.1657	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.065526	-15.98%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.1384	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.067447	-15.45%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.1926	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.064466	-14.15%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.1531	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.065053	-13.69%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.1254	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.066133	-13.60%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.1597	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.06633	-13.48%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2084	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.067459	-12.78%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.2318	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.066069	-10.78%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1121	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.068597	-11.16%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.1572	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.068535	-12.01%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.1695	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.072727	-13.67%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.2227	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.070029	-13.02%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.1810	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.067359	-12.19%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.1393	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.067123	-12.23%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.1390	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.067007	-11.68%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1291	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.066539	-11.51%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1192	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.069895	-11.57%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.1675	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.071371	-10.24%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.1395	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.071797	-10.47%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.1338	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.071209	-10.10%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1110	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.071343	-10.05%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1213	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.078672	-9.61%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2324	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.076397	-9.68%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.1621	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.07635	-9.55%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1378	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.069814	-8.06%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0339	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.077044	-8.55%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0700	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.077948	-8.74%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0230	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.077678	-9.50%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0104	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.08092	-10.34%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0243	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.082162	-10.81%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.0556	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.081554	-11.08%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.0313	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.080953	-11.37%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0034	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.079271	-11.40%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.0353	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.077071	-11.80%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0023	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.08252	-12.88%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.0942	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.087918	-13.96%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.1338	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.084305	-14.24%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.0885	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.088507	-14.86%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.1888	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.093809	-15.81%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.2215	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.074843	-14.03%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0037	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.072648	-14.57%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.1358	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.080611	-15.01%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.0087	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.078542	-14.96%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.0301	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.078329	-14.88%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.0293	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.080774	-14.94%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.0764	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.085707	-15.33%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.1498	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.105715	-19.01%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.3432	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.084149	-16.02%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.1487	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.070869	-12.77%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0575	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.07031	-12.82%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0574	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.065891	-12.00%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.1315	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.059111	-11.79%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.3114	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.06253	-12.04%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.2355	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.072157	-13.50%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.1165	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.083414	-16.16%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.1201	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.080175	-14.93%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0254	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.079689	-15.02%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0321	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.075988	-14.09%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.1100	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.082302	-15.88%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0769	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.080672	-15.38%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.1085	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.068711	-11.68%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2973	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.067372	-11.51%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.3331	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.068915	-12.29%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.2850	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.064285	-10.15%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.3177	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.062469	-9.60%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.4492	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.066649	-11.04%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.4242	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.065289	-10.71%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.4059	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.057941	-7.83%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.5481	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.05922	-8.40%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.6117	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.058991	-8.88%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.4006	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.06292	-10.28%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.3010	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.060316	-9.16%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.4112	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.056888	-8.45%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.4508	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.057099	-9.41%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4872	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.06223	-11.29%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.4435	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.058069	-10.64%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.6430	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.062268	-12.61%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.9212	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.062065	-13.01%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.7358	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.065849	-14.45%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.4357	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.065328	-14.44%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.4424	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.054527	-10.45%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5528	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.055651	-10.55%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.4334	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.055824	-10.21%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.5307	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.06117	-11.03%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5760	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.061046	-10.88%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.7198	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.06368	-11.62%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5963	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.062895	-11.54%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5972	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.071951	-14.34%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3702	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.067439	-12.02%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5479	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.063493	-10.28%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5753	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.064272	-10.10%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3413	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.063746	-9.50%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.3211	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.068027	-10.24%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2796	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.067648	-9.69%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.2157	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.076273	-12.25%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0423	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.077717	-12.51%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.1072	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.091628	-17.09%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.1435	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.088617	-15.39%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.2151	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.084772	-13.73%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.1235	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.08413	-12.61%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1409	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.08034	-10.81%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0211	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.082028	-10.80%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.0792	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.07991	-9.24%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.0766	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.081915	-9.51%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1176	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.084572	-10.71%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0462	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.086612	-12.48%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.1752	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.099333	-14.66%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.2739	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.093769	-14.89%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.2370	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.093332	-16.94%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.1709	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.105709	-18.62%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.3034	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.111981	-19.13%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.5718	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.11071	-19.17%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.5361	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.110071	-17.74%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.5343	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.109546	-18.66%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.4606	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.100734	-17.89%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.3794	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.109981	-19.02%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.4019	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.09563	-16.65%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.2604	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.103481	-20.80%	0.084	-35.71%	0.2242	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.091357	-19.83%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.1965	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.072448	-15.95%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.0625	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.077342	-15.21%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.0945	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.09926	-19.46%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.3470	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.125634	-24.38%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.5438	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.073001	-14.65%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.0291	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.066265	-11.82%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1824	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.059503	-9.43%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.3377	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.053418	-10.23%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5982	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.049683	-9.15%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6340	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.048721	-9.53%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5828	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.047987	-10.46%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5799	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.055694	-10.08%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3603	✗	1.00