XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s2

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +7d

assessed

114

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

50.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1882

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0327

actual -0.0468

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.004312	0.004173	-3.23%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004312	0.004188	-2.86%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004213	-2.94%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004239	-2.89%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004176	-2.88%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.00437	-3.35%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004379	-3.63%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004398	-3.99%	0.004312	-5.88%	0.0121	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004174	-3.81%	0.004312	-0.64%	0.0417	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004014	-3.64%	0.00434	+4.19%	0.0776	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.00397	-3.65%	0.004365	+5.95%	0.0953	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003872	-3.50%	0.0043	+7.15%	0.1035	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003901	-3.52%	0.004521	+11.81%	0.1474	✗	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003908	-3.53%	0.004544	+12.18%	0.1507	✗	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003791	-3.25%	0.004581	+16.92%	0.1896	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004003	-3.36%	0.004339	+4.75%	0.0783	✗	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004001	-2.90%	0.004166	+1.11%	0.0403	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003967	-2.70%	0.00412	+1.05%	0.0362	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004308	-2.81%	0.004012	-9.48%	0.0754	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003711	-2.77%	0.004044	+5.94%	0.0814	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004818	-3.40%	0.004051	-18.79%	0.1781	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004846	-3.41%	0.003918	-21.90%	0.2189	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.00481	-4.05%	0.004142	-17.37%	0.1512	✓	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004137	-3.05%	0.00412	-3.46%	0.0083	✓	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.00439	-3.33%	0.004078	-10.21%	0.0595	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004322	-2.98%	0.004432	-0.50%	0.0350	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004479	-2.98%	0.003817	-17.32%	0.1583	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004583	-3.06%	0.004988	+5.50%	0.0867	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004915	-3.92%	0.005017	-1.93%	0.0229	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004309	-2.86%	0.005013	+13.01%	0.1473	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004257	-2.23%	0.004268	-1.98%	0.0073	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004253	-1.93%	0.004541	+4.73%	0.0557	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004247	-2.86%	0.004455	+1.88%	0.0620	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004434	-2.83%	0.004617	+1.17%	0.0545	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004646	-3.08%	0.004728	-1.38%	0.0304	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005123	-5.99%	0.005116	-6.12%	0.0167	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004239	-2.41%	0.004436	+2.11%	0.0637	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003817	-0.53%	0.004354	+13.47%	0.1877	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003865	-0.25%	0.004336	+11.93%	0.1462	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003673	+0.76%	0.004372	+19.94%	0.1875	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003172	+3.81%	0.004563	+49.34%	0.3735	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003919	+0.89%	0.004794	+23.43%	0.2110	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003999	+0.78%	0.005449	+37.31%	0.3088	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.00405	+1.01%	0.004344	+8.34%	0.0645	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004862	-0.81%	0.003837	-21.71%	0.2450	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004809	-0.54%	0.003874	-19.87%	0.2186	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.00474	+0.48%	0.003645	-22.73%	0.2715	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004585	+1.23%	0.003056	-32.54%	0.4125	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004807	+1.34%	0.003884	-18.12%	0.2196	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005145	+1.56%	0.003968	-21.67%	0.2744	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005025	+0.19%	0.00401	-20.06%	0.2220	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.005013	+0.40%	0.004901	-1.83%	0.0184	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004721	+1.10%	0.004835	+3.54%	0.0256	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005077	+0.61%	0.004718	-6.51%	0.0654	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005136	+0.61%	0.004529	-11.27%	0.1208	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005216	+0.34%	0.004744	-8.76%	0.0895	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005442	+1.07%	0.005066	-5.91%	0.0682	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005439	+0.40%	0.005016	-7.41%	0.0871	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005244	+0.25%	0.004993	-4.55%	0.0532	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005297	+0.40%	0.004669	-11.50%	0.1277	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005177	+0.01%	0.005046	-2.52%	0.0259	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005081	-0.12%	0.005104	+0.35%	0.0094	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004946	+0.40%	0.005199	+5.53%	0.0481	✓	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.00569	-1.56%	0.005385	-6.84%	0.0664	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005614	-2.34%	0.005417	-5.76%	0.0461	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005669	-2.58%	0.005231	-10.11%	0.0980	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005735	-2.63%	0.005276	-10.42%	0.1016	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005828	-2.71%	0.005177	-13.58%	0.1390	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005834	-2.65%	0.005087	-15.11%	0.1569	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.00577	-2.47%	0.004926	-16.73%	0.1790	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005782	-2.47%	0.00578	-2.51%	0.0149	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005915	-2.52%	0.005749	-5.27%	0.0378	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006287	-2.89%	0.00582	-10.11%	0.0791	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006567	-3.39%	0.00589	-13.35%	0.1096	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.00653	-3.72%	0.00599	-11.68%	0.0830	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006232	-3.45%	0.005993	-7.16%	0.0359	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006664	-4.00%	0.005916	-14.78%	0.1157	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006782	-4.16%	0.005929	-16.21%	0.1329	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.00695	-5.06%	0.006068	-17.10%	0.1336	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.00627	-4.55%	0.006474	-1.44%	0.0322	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006088	-4.62%	0.006798	+6.50%	0.1104	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.0058	-4.45%	0.006782	+11.74%	0.1569	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005698	-4.34%	0.006455	+8.37%	0.1267	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005732	-4.61%	0.006942	+15.52%	0.1934	✗	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005679	-5.03%	0.007076	+18.34%	0.2201	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005723	-5.08%	0.00732	+21.41%	0.2464	✗	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005564	-4.94%	0.006568	+12.21%	0.1660	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005799	-5.27%	0.006383	+4.27%	0.0959	✗	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005949	-6.12%	0.00607	-4.21%	0.0189	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.005923	-6.19%	0.005956	-5.66%	0.0035	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005872	-6.46%	0.006009	-4.27%	0.0213	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005775	-7.01%	0.005979	-3.72%	0.0345	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005662	-7.67%	0.006029	-1.67%	0.0631	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005792	-8.89%	0.005854	-7.92%	0.0106	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005666	-9.35%	0.006121	-2.07%	0.0751	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005313	-8.41%	0.006336	+9.22%	0.1780	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005306	-8.54%	0.006314	+8.84%	0.1726	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.00532	-8.25%	0.006277	+8.26%	0.1662	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005521	-8.61%	0.006211	+2.81%	0.1223	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005528	-9.48%	0.006132	+0.41%	0.1080	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.005761	-10.68%	0.006357	-1.44%	0.0753	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005039	-7.38%	0.00625	+14.89%	0.1693	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005357	-8.62%	0.005801	-1.05%	0.0649	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005044	-8.00%	0.005801	+5.80%	0.1238	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004643	-7.14%	0.005798	+15.97%	0.2259	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005145	-8.08%	0.006041	+7.93%	0.1512	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003975	-2.60%	0.006107	+49.61%	0.3902	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003803	-1.58%	0.00645	+66.95%	0.5024	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.00326	+0.62%	0.00544	+67.91%	0.5396	✓	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003296	+1.68%	0.005863	+80.84%	0.5733	✓	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002988	-0.40%	0.005483	+82.76%	0.5962	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.001787	-26.82%	0.005	+104.73%	1.0034	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006565	-0.90%	0.005597	-15.51%	0.1867	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007152	-0.51%	0.004082	-43.22%	0.5981	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006955	+0.32%	0.003864	-44.27%	0.6667	✗	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007841	-0.92%	0.00324	-59.06%	0.9456	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008661	-1.40%	0.003242	-63.10%	1.0496	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008851	-1.57%	0.003	-66.64%	1.1332	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009022	-1.61%	0.002442	-73.37%	1.3479	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009169	-1.55%	0.006625	-28.87%	0.3544	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010219	-2.23%	0.007189	-31.22%	0.3348	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.