XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s2

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +1d

assessed

120

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

49.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0604

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0020

actual -0.0077

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.004312	0.004282	-0.68%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004312	0.004286	-0.59%	0.004312	+0.00%	0.0067	✗	-0.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004314	-0.60%	0.004312	-0.66%	0.0039	✓	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.00434	-0.58%	0.00434	-0.57%	0.0046	✓	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004275	-0.58%	0.004365	+1.53%	0.0203	✗	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004499	-0.49%	0.0043	-4.90%	0.0431	✓	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004525	-0.43%	0.004521	-0.51%	0.0012	✓	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004553	-0.62%	0.004544	-0.80%	0.0042	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004317	-0.52%	0.004581	+5.57%	0.0616	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004139	-0.64%	0.004339	+4.17%	0.0419	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004102	-0.45%	0.004166	+1.10%	0.0201	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.00399	-0.55%	0.00412	+2.69%	0.0306	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.004023	-0.50%	0.004012	-0.77%	0.0026	✓	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.004032	-0.46%	0.004044	-0.18%	0.0028	✓	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003911	-0.18%	0.004051	+3.39%	0.0357	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004118	-0.58%	0.003918	-5.42%	0.0520	✓	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004077	-1.04%	0.004142	+0.54%	0.0158	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004041	-0.90%	0.00412	+1.04%	0.0193	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.0044	-0.73%	0.004078	-8.01%	0.0773	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003801	-0.40%	0.004432	+16.13%	0.1578	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004939	-0.99%	0.003817	-23.48%	0.2571	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004976	-0.83%	0.004988	-0.58%	0.0018	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004973	-0.80%	0.005017	+0.08%	0.0171	✗	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004263	-0.12%	0.005013	+17.46%	0.1616	✗	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004535	-0.15%	0.004268	-6.02%	0.0595	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004457	+0.05%	0.004541	+1.95%	0.0140	✓	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.00462	+0.06%	0.004455	-3.51%	0.0362	✗	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004731	+0.06%	0.004617	-2.36%	0.0228	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.005111	-0.11%	0.004728	-7.58%	0.0793	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004446	+0.24%	0.005116	+15.33%	0.1403	✓	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004368	+0.32%	0.004436	+1.88%	0.0084	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004349	+0.29%	0.004354	+0.40%	0.0001	✓	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.00438	+0.19%	0.004336	-0.82%	0.0131	✓	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004564	+0.02%	0.004372	-4.19%	0.0433	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004778	-0.34%	0.004563	-4.81%	0.0445	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005372	-1.41%	0.004794	-12.02%	0.1035	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004326	-0.42%	0.005449	+25.44%	0.2313	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003836	-0.04%	0.004344	+13.22%	0.1277	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003871	-0.07%	0.003837	-0.96%	0.0191	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003651	+0.16%	0.003874	+6.28%	0.0636	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003077	+0.69%	0.003645	+19.30%	0.1684	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003903	+0.49%	0.003056	-21.33%	0.2447	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003992	+0.59%	0.003884	-2.12%	0.0256	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004039	+0.73%	0.003968	-1.03%	0.0221	✗	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004922	+0.42%	0.00401	-18.19%	0.2055	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004861	+0.53%	0.004901	+1.38%	0.0066	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004753	+0.74%	0.004835	+2.48%	0.0140	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004567	+0.82%	0.004718	+4.16%	0.0338	✓	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004775	+0.67%	0.004529	-4.52%	0.0525	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.00509	+0.46%	0.004744	-6.37%	0.0752	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005024	+0.16%	0.005066	+1.01%	0.0236	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.005	+0.15%	0.005016	+0.46%	0.0027	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004675	+0.13%	0.004993	+6.93%	0.0619	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005047	+0.01%	0.004669	-7.47%	0.0750	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005107	+0.05%	0.005046	-1.14%	0.0138	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005201	+0.04%	0.005104	-1.82%	0.0175	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005389	+0.08%	0.005199	-3.45%	0.0443	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005417	-0.00%	0.005385	-0.60%	0.0017	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.00523	-0.01%	0.005417	+3.57%	0.0370	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005269	-0.14%	0.005231	-0.86%	0.0088	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005173	-0.07%	0.005276	+1.93%	0.0246	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.00509	+0.06%	0.005177	+1.76%	0.0196	✓	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004933	+0.14%	0.005087	+3.26%	0.0261	✓	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005786	+0.11%	0.004926	-14.77%	0.1692	✗	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005747	-0.03%	0.00578	+0.54%	0.0016	✗	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005804	-0.27%	0.005749	-1.22%	0.0157	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005875	-0.26%	0.00582	-1.20%	0.0098	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.00598	-0.17%	0.00589	-1.66%	0.0176	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005988	-0.08%	0.00599	-0.04%	0.0006	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005918	+0.02%	0.005993	+1.29%	0.0125	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005932	+0.05%	0.005916	-0.21%	0.0019	✗	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.006071	+0.04%	0.005929	-2.30%	0.0237	✗	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006469	-0.07%	0.006068	-6.27%	0.0638	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006785	-0.19%	0.006474	-4.76%	0.0464	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006765	-0.25%	0.006798	+0.23%	0.0063	✗	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006444	-0.16%	0.006782	+5.07%	0.0512	✗	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006908	-0.49%	0.006455	-7.02%	0.0679	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.007029	-0.67%	0.006942	-1.89%	0.0135	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.00723	-1.23%	0.007076	-3.33%	0.0209	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006517	-0.78%	0.00732	+11.45%	0.1160	✗	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006345	-0.60%	0.006568	+2.91%	0.0348	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.006054	-0.26%	0.006383	+5.16%	0.0529	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005945	-0.19%	0.00607	+1.90%	0.0214	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005986	-0.40%	0.005956	-0.88%	0.0050	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005967	-0.20%	0.006009	+0.50%	0.0071	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.006011	-0.31%	0.005979	-0.82%	0.0050	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005844	-0.17%	0.006029	+3.00%	0.0312	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.006104	-0.27%	0.005854	-4.37%	0.0419	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006329	-0.10%	0.006121	-3.39%	0.0346	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006298	-0.24%	0.006336	+0.36%	0.0073	✗	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.006263	-0.22%	0.006314	+0.58%	0.0083	✗	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.006214	+0.06%	0.006277	+1.07%	0.0093	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.006143	+0.18%	0.006211	+1.29%	0.0111	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006362	+0.08%	0.006132	-3.54%	0.0369	✗	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.006252	+0.03%	0.006357	+1.71%	0.0184	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.00581	+0.15%	0.00625	+7.74%	0.0746	✓	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.00581	+0.17%	0.005801	+0.01%	0.0019	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005805	+0.11%	0.005801	+0.04%	0.0026	✓	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.006043	+0.03%	0.005798	-4.02%	0.0409	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.00611	+0.06%	0.006041	-1.07%	0.0144	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006427	-0.36%	0.006107	-5.32%	0.0469	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005417	-0.43%	0.00645	+18.56%	0.1317	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005827	-0.61%	0.00544	-7.20%	0.0452	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005438	-0.82%	0.005863	+6.93%	0.0757	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004939	-1.23%	0.005483	+9.66%	0.1101	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005463	-2.39%	0.005	-10.67%	0.1035	✓	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.004021	-1.48%	0.005597	+37.13%	0.3157	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003806	-1.50%	0.004082	+5.64%	0.0873	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003202	-1.18%	0.003864	+19.25%	0.1985	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003212	-0.92%	0.00324	-0.06%	0.0022	✓	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.00299	-0.33%	0.003242	+8.06%	0.0730	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002446	+0.15%	0.003	+22.84%	0.1952	✓	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006629	+0.07%	0.002442	-63.13%	1.0153	✗	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007197	+0.12%	0.006625	-7.85%	0.1080	✗	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006955	+0.31%	0.007189	+3.69%	0.0089	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007928	+0.18%	0.006933	-12.39%	0.1065	✗	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008799	+0.16%	0.007913	-9.92%	0.1176	✗	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.009014	+0.25%	0.008785	-2.31%	0.0181	✗	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009194	+0.27%	0.008992	-1.93%	0.0210	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009334	+0.22%	0.009169	-1.55%	0.0228	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010448	-0.04%	0.009313	-10.90%	0.0938	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.