XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s2

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +30d

assessed

90

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

50.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2386

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0004

actual -0.0978

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.00419	-3.94%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004147	-4.44%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004108	-5.90%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.003992	-7.16%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004287	-5.17%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.00437	-3.84%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004409	-3.76%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004194	-3.35%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004017	-3.56%	–	pending	–	–	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.00399	-3.16%	–	pending	–	–	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003864	-3.70%	–	pending	–	–	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.0039	-3.54%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003911	-3.45%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003814	-2.65%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.003997	-3.50%	–	pending	–	–	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.003954	-4.03%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003894	-4.51%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004166	-6.01%	–	pending	–	–	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003675	-3.72%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004597	-7.84%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004607	-8.17%	–	pending	–	–	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004626	-7.73%	–	pending	–	–	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004095	-4.04%	–	pending	–	–	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004349	-4.23%	–	pending	–	–	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004309	-3.28%	–	pending	–	–	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004477	-3.03%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004585	-3.02%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004923	-3.77%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004354	-1.85%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004291	-1.44%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004276	-1.40%	0.004362	+0.58%	0.0075	✓	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004321	-1.18%	0.00434	-0.73%	0.0122	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004477	-1.89%	0.004365	-4.34%	0.0226	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004656	-2.89%	0.0043	-10.32%	0.0750	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005307	-2.62%	0.004521	-17.03%	0.1487	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004302	-0.97%	0.004544	+4.61%	0.0671	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003834	-0.07%	0.004581	+19.39%	0.2133	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003851	-0.60%	0.004339	+12.01%	0.1323	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003622	-0.64%	0.004166	+14.28%	0.1588	✗	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003036	-0.64%	0.00412	+34.84%	0.3163	✗	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003873	-0.30%	0.004012	+3.30%	0.0517	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003978	+0.24%	0.004044	+1.89%	0.0325	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004042	+0.82%	0.004051	+1.04%	0.0128	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004971	+1.43%	0.003918	-20.06%	0.2290	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004915	+1.65%	0.004142	-14.32%	0.1598	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004814	+2.05%	0.00412	-12.67%	0.1434	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.00463	+2.22%	0.004078	-9.97%	0.1125	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004855	+2.36%	0.004432	-6.56%	0.0743	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005152	+1.69%	0.003817	-24.66%	0.2897	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005062	+0.93%	0.004988	-0.55%	0.0124	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.005042	+0.99%	0.005017	+0.48%	0.0229	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004582	-1.87%	0.005013	+7.36%	0.1056	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.004941	-2.08%	0.004268	-15.43%	0.1290	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005059	-0.88%	0.004541	-11.03%	0.0928	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005179	-0.38%	0.004455	-14.32%	0.1315	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005451	+1.22%	0.004617	-14.26%	0.1524	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005465	+0.88%	0.004728	-12.72%	0.1277	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005289	+1.12%	0.005116	-2.20%	0.0129	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005362	+1.62%	0.004436	-15.93%	0.1709	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005258	+1.58%	0.004354	-15.89%	0.1574	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005178	+1.79%	0.004336	-14.75%	0.1410	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.005056	+2.64%	0.004372	-11.25%	0.1354	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005789	+0.16%	0.004563	-21.05%	0.2507	✗	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005703	-0.80%	0.004794	-16.60%	0.1857	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005754	-1.13%	0.005449	-6.36%	0.0693	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005817	-1.24%	0.004344	-26.25%	0.3069	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005923	-1.12%	0.003837	-35.94%	0.4520	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005938	-0.92%	0.003874	-35.35%	0.4483	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.00588	-0.62%	0.003645	-38.39%	0.4971	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.00591	-0.32%	0.003056	-48.46%	0.6800	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.006043	-0.41%	0.003884	-35.99%	0.4624	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006397	-1.18%	0.003968	-38.70%	0.4960	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006674	-1.82%	0.00401	-41.02%	0.5269	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006643	-2.05%	0.004901	-27.73%	0.3243	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006358	-1.51%	0.004835	-25.10%	0.2953	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006741	-2.90%	0.004718	-32.04%	0.3807	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006846	-3.25%	0.004529	-35.99%	0.4382	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006986	-4.57%	0.004744	-35.20%	0.4099	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006365	-3.09%	0.005066	-22.87%	0.2330	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006234	-2.34%	0.005016	-21.42%	0.2141	✓	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005986	-1.38%	0.004993	-17.74%	0.1778	✓	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005924	-0.55%	0.004669	-21.61%	0.2248	✓	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005938	-1.19%	0.005046	-16.03%	0.1503	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005932	-0.79%	0.005104	-14.63%	0.1506	✓	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005958	-1.18%	0.005199	-13.77%	0.1336	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005818	-0.61%	0.005385	-8.01%	0.0726	✓	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.006069	-0.85%	0.005417	-11.50%	0.1105	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006435	+1.57%	0.005231	-17.44%	0.1992	✗	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006386	+1.15%	0.005276	-16.43%	0.1733	✗	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.00638	+1.63%	0.005177	-17.53%	0.1902	✗	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.006442	+3.72%	0.005087	-18.09%	0.2275	✗	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.006398	+4.33%	0.004926	-19.66%	0.2622	✗	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006585	+3.58%	0.00578	-9.08%	0.1302	✗	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.006491	+3.85%	0.005749	-8.03%	0.1160	✗	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.006033	+4.00%	0.00582	+0.32%	0.0361	✓	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.006022	+3.81%	0.00589	+1.54%	0.0230	✓	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005988	+3.27%	0.00599	+3.30%	0.0036	✓	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.006228	+3.10%	0.005993	-0.80%	0.0413	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.006356	+4.09%	0.005916	-3.12%	0.0773	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006684	+3.62%	0.005929	-8.08%	0.0955	✗	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005513	+1.34%	0.006068	+11.55%	0.0777	✓	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005985	+2.09%	0.006474	+10.43%	0.0818	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005586	+1.89%	0.006798	+23.98%	0.1941	✓	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.005062	+1.25%	0.006782	+35.64%	0.2813	✓	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005634	+0.66%	0.006455	+15.32%	0.1089	✓	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.004039	-1.04%	0.006942	+70.08%	0.4998	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003771	-2.40%	0.007076	+83.15%	0.6147	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.00308	-4.93%	0.00732	+125.94%	0.8563	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003076	-5.12%	0.006568	+102.62%	0.7513	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002843	-5.22%	0.006383	+112.76%	0.8026	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002328	-4.67%	0.00607	+148.53%	0.9427	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006697	+1.09%	0.005956	-10.09%	0.1378	✗	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007231	+0.58%	0.006009	-16.41%	0.2317	✗	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006957	+0.34%	0.005979	-13.75%	0.2520	✗	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007975	+0.78%	0.006029	-23.81%	0.3399	✗	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008825	+0.46%	0.005854	-33.37%	0.4815	✗	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.009036	+0.48%	0.006121	-31.93%	0.4503	✗	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009183	+0.15%	0.006336	-30.90%	0.4563	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009266	-0.51%	0.006314	-32.21%	0.4578	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010246	-1.98%	0.006277	-39.94%	0.5395	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.