UPROBINHOOD

? · · gru_s2

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 189

Track record at +7d

assessed

56

of 63 predictions shown

direction hit

69.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4421

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0304

actual +0.0621

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.276795	0.263212	-4.91%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.264126	-4.85%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.240898	-3.20%	–	pending	–	–	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.217414	-1.02%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.228749	-1.00%	–	pending	–	–	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.273454	-3.06%	–	pending	–	–	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.271026	-3.19%	–	pending	–	–	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.265719	-3.15%	0.276795	+0.88%	0.0087	✓	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.280661	-5.62%	0.277585	-6.65%	0.0065	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.202334	+1.96%	0.24885	+25.40%	0.2044	✓	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.231239	-2.15%	0.21966	-7.05%	0.0098	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.211182	+1.30%	0.23107	+10.84%	0.1280	✓	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.210837	+2.46%	0.28208	+37.08%	0.3171	✓	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.20751	+4.80%	0.279945	+41.38%	0.2887	✓	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.231816	+1.15%	0.27437	+19.71%	0.2091	✓	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.240625	-1.23%	0.297375	+22.06%	0.2686	✗	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.256997	-3.53%	0.198445	-25.51%	0.1655	✓	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.270861	-5.89%	0.23632	-17.89%	0.0726	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.275826	-4.99%	0.20848	-28.19%	0.2375	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.263648	-3.57%	0.20578	-24.74%	0.2021	✓	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.28317	-5.58%	0.19801	-33.97%	0.2849	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.36913	-9.06%	0.22919	-43.54%	0.4697	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.358323	-9.00%	0.24363	-38.12%	0.4318	✓	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.282254	-3.07%	0.266405	-8.51%	0.1143	✓	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.304812	-3.26%	0.28781	-8.65%	0.1066	✓	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.350923	-3.72%	0.290305	-20.35%	0.1974	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.327469	-2.50%	0.27341	-18.59%	0.1904	✓	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.33262	-2.16%	0.29989	-11.79%	0.1147	✓	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.384864	-2.64%	0.40591	+2.69%	0.0729	✗	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.463833	-3.96%	0.39374	-18.47%	0.1084	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.524937	-5.77%	0.291185	-47.73%	0.5237	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.447894	-3.08%	0.31507	-31.82%	0.4154	✓	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.470049	-3.21%	0.36447	-24.95%	0.3151	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.558743	-4.45%	0.33586	-42.56%	0.5700	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.460857	-2.61%	0.33996	-28.16%	0.4306	✓	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.377731	+1.06%	0.39528	+5.75%	0.0870	✗	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.331036	+3.79%	0.482965	+51.42%	0.2107	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.379668	+2.38%	0.55709	+50.22%	0.2763	✓	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.387233	+2.17%	0.46212	+21.93%	0.1175	✓	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.369079	+4.26%	0.485615	+37.19%	0.2181	✓	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.397481	+4.03%	0.58476	+53.04%	0.3350	✓	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.413248	+4.23%	0.47322	+19.36%	0.1382	✓	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.438212	+4.63%	0.37378	-10.75%	0.1313	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.51651	+2.90%	0.318955	-36.46%	0.4449	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.566593	+1.56%	0.37084	-33.53%	0.4122	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.664908	-2.11%	0.379015	-44.20%	0.5170	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.740623	-6.29%	0.353985	-55.21%	0.7055	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.611776	-3.05%	0.382085	-39.45%	0.4393	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.737758	-4.15%	0.396465	-48.49%	0.5611	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.777305	-7.26%	0.41882	-50.03%	0.6309	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.805898	-7.82%	0.50196	-42.59%	0.4869	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.829776	-9.25%	0.55791	-38.98%	0.4037	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.484949	-7.56%	0.679235	+29.47%	0.3031	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.307894	-5.07%	0.790295	+143.66%	0.9224	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.22983	-4.74%	0.63101	+161.55%	0.9867	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.251158	-5.11%	0.76968	+190.79%	1.1077	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.339647	-8.75%	0.838135	+125.17%	0.9253	✗	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.144397	-8.34%	0.87428	+454.96%	1.8153	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.179725	-9.53%	0.91438	+360.30%	1.6321	✗	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.12483	-11.40%	0.52462	+272.33%	1.4365	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.081571	-4.15%	0.32435	+281.14%	1.3652	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.107497	-2.89%	0.24126	+117.94%	0.8146	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.101293	-3.90%	0.26469	+151.13%	0.8657	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.