UPROBINHOOD

? · · gru_s2

token id: #949
symbol: UPROBINHOOD
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-11
predictions: 192

Track record at +1d

assessed

63

of 64 predictions shown

direction hit

60.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1452

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0097

actual +0.0126

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.28138	0.276228	-1.83%	–	pending	–	–	2.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.281425	0.276188	-1.86%	0.28138	-0.02%	0.0132	✓	2.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.277585	0.272817	-1.72%	0.281425	+1.38%	0.0005	✓	2.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.24885	0.246264	-1.04%	0.277585	+11.55%	0.0887	✗	2.32
2026-10-18	oos	0.21966	0.219022	-0.29%	0.24885	+13.29%	0.1325	✗	2.35
2026-10-17	oos	0.23107	0.230376	-0.30%	0.21966	-4.94%	0.0656	✓	2.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.28208	0.279079	-1.06%	0.23107	-18.08%	0.1854	✓	2.32
2026-10-15	oos	0.279945	0.276406	-1.26%	0.28208	+0.76%	0.0381	✗	2.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.27437	0.270409	-1.44%	0.279945	+2.03%	0.0188	✗	2.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.297375	0.287605	-3.29%	0.27437	-7.74%	0.0040	✓	2.31
2026-10-12	oos	0.198445	0.199402	+0.48%	0.297375	+49.85%	0.3640	✓	2.16
2026-10-11	oos	0.23632	0.232873	-1.46%	0.198445	-16.03%	0.1118	✓	2.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.20848	0.208586	+0.05%	0.23632	+13.35%	0.1060	✓	2.04
2026-10-09	oos	0.20578	0.206753	+0.47%	0.20848	+1.31%	0.0007	✓	2.04
2026-10-08	oos	0.19801	0.20072	+1.37%	0.20578	+3.92%	0.0038	✓	2.03
2026-10-07	oos	0.22919	0.228129	-0.46%	0.19801	-13.60%	0.1040	✓	1.96
2026-10-06	oos	0.24363	0.23859	-2.07%	0.22919	-5.93%	0.0125	✓	1.96
2026-10-05	oos	0.266405	0.258441	-2.99%	0.24363	-8.55%	0.0543	✓	1.94
2026-10-04	oos	0.28781	0.277804	-3.48%	0.266405	-7.44%	0.0250	✓	1.92
2026-10-03	oos	0.290305	0.28311	-2.48%	0.28781	-0.86%	0.0235	✓	1.94
2026-10-02	oos	0.27341	0.269234	-1.53%	0.290305	+6.18%	0.0699	✗	1.95
2026-10-01	oos	0.29989	0.295254	-1.55%	0.27341	-8.83%	0.0691	✓	1.92
2026-09-30	oos	0.40591	0.39761	-2.04%	0.29989	-26.12%	0.3133	✓	2.04
2026-09-29	oos	0.39374	0.387553	-1.57%	0.40591	+3.09%	0.0483	✗	2.05
2026-09-28	oos	0.291185	0.290277	-0.31%	0.39374	+35.22%	0.3003	✗	2.08
2026-09-27	oos	0.31507	0.313477	-0.51%	0.291185	-7.58%	0.0491	✓	2.06
2026-09-26	oos	0.36447	0.361929	-0.70%	0.31507	-13.55%	0.1397	✓	2.03
2026-09-25	oos	0.33586	0.334316	-0.46%	0.36447	+8.52%	0.0785	✗	2.04
2026-09-24	oos	0.33996	0.338521	-0.42%	0.33586	-1.21%	0.0008	✓	2.04
2026-09-23	oos	0.39528	0.392952	-0.59%	0.33996	-14.00%	0.1450	✓	2.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.482965	0.477365	-1.16%	0.39528	-18.16%	0.1495	✓	1.84
2026-09-21	oos	0.55709	0.545423	-2.09%	0.482965	-13.31%	0.1135	✓	1.78
2026-09-20	oos	0.46212	0.459504	-0.57%	0.55709	+20.55%	0.0891	✗	1.60
2026-09-19	oos	0.485615	0.482574	-0.63%	0.46212	-4.84%	0.0419	✓	1.58
2026-09-18	oos	0.58476	0.57709	-1.31%	0.485615	-16.95%	0.1795	✓	1.56
2026-09-17	oos	0.47322	0.470549	-0.56%	0.58476	+23.57%	0.1446	✗	1.26
2026-09-16	oos	0.37378	0.376237	+0.66%	0.47322	+26.60%	0.2259	✓	1.29
2026-09-15	oos	0.318955	0.323812	+1.52%	0.37378	+17.19%	0.1341	✓	1.27
2026-09-14	oos	0.37084	0.374723	+1.05%	0.318955	-13.99%	0.1258	✗	1.05
2026-09-13	oos	0.379015	0.382386	+0.89%	0.37084	-2.16%	0.0497	✗	1.07
2026-09-12	oos	0.353985	0.360076	+1.72%	0.379015	+7.07%	0.0580	✓	1.12
2026-09-11	oos	0.382085	0.388506	+1.68%	0.353985	-7.35%	0.0938	✗	1.10
2026-09-10	oos	0.396465	0.403666	+1.82%	0.382085	-3.63%	0.0646	✗	1.11
2026-09-09	oos	0.41882	0.426759	+1.90%	0.396465	-5.34%	0.0511	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.50196	0.507348	+1.07%	0.41882	-16.56%	0.1897	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.55791	0.55977	+0.33%	0.50196	-10.03%	0.1008	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.679235	0.673063	-0.91%	0.55791	-17.86%	0.1720	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.790295	0.780943	-1.18%	0.679235	-14.05%	0.1459	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.63101	0.626801	-0.67%	0.790295	+25.24%	0.2298	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.76968	0.763788	-0.77%	0.63101	-18.02%	0.1712	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.838135	0.826354	-1.41%	0.76968	-8.17%	0.1210	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.87428	0.856164	-2.07%	0.838135	-4.13%	0.0201	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.91438	0.877918	-3.99%	0.87428	-4.39%	0.0108	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.52462	0.509359	-2.91%	0.91438	+74.29%	0.5736	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.32435	0.318385	-1.84%	0.52462	+61.75%	0.5067	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.24126	0.237989	-1.36%	0.32435	+34.44%	0.3045	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.26469	0.258338	-2.40%	0.24126	-8.85%	0.0376	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.37223	0.353101	-5.14%	0.26469	-28.89%	0.3039	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.15754	0.153798	-2.38%	0.37223	+136.28%	0.8775	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.19865	0.190238	-4.23%	0.15754	-20.69%	0.1828	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.1409	0.137606	-2.34%	0.19865	+40.99%	0.3512	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.0851	0.085065	-0.04%	0.1409	+65.57%	0.4959	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.1107	0.110859	+0.14%	0.0851	-23.13%	0.2481	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.1054	0.105068	-0.32%	0.1107	+5.03%	0.0180	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.