UMX

UMX · · gru_s2

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +7d

assessed

60

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

63.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0636

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0151

actual -0.0708

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.04603	-1.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042892	-0.05%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054059	-1.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054472	-1.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055072	-1.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058207	-1.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.057969	-1.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058294	-1.76%	0.0466	-21.47%	0.2279	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058178	-2.09%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3037	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059093	-2.20%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0694	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.058814	-2.31%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0526	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059219	-2.39%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0521	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059578	-2.24%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0037	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059401	-1.87%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0078	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.060495	-2.15%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0119	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.060272	-2.34%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0026	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.060245	-2.34%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0226	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.060096	-2.62%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0161	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060354	-1.70%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0142	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060601	-1.78%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0154	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.060362	-1.82%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0190	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060068	-2.15%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0302	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.0601	-1.81%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0170	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.059779	-1.38%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0199	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060356	-0.63%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0113	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.06086	-0.33%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0070	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060848	-0.11%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0116	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.06128	+0.18%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0007	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.061333	+0.27%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0057	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060739	+0.01%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0242	✓	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060776	-0.64%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0182	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.061105	-0.54%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0279	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.06019	-0.45%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0074	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.061018	-0.57%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0238	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060903	-0.40%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0471	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.062045	+0.06%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0672	✗	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.06163	+1.27%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0810	✗	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.061482	+1.59%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0723	✗	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.062313	+2.53%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0490	✗	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.064266	+2.67%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0935	✗	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.066801	+2.70%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.1150	✗	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.066795	+2.67%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0867	✗	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.067061	+3.39%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0572	✗	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.068608	+3.18%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0909	✗	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.070136	+3.04%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.1379	✗	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.072001	+2.96%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.1297	✗	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.07335	+2.05%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.1259	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.073246	+1.63%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0873	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.073457	+0.45%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0615	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.074571	+0.45%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1521	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.074106	-0.37%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.1218	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.073708	-1.66%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0864	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.074268	-2.01%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0940	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.073398	-2.31%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0412	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074179	-2.82%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0522	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.073545	-4.44%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0179	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.077717	-5.42%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0238	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.078382	-6.19%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0379	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.082146	-7.40%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.0864	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.080277	-7.43%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.0567	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.079948	-7.80%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.0773	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.076672	-8.13%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0018	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.077031	-6.92%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.0958	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.078136	-7.92%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.0810	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.081198	-4.42%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1654	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.081156	-4.13%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1139	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.084308	-0.18%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1845	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.