UMX

UMX · · gru_s2

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +1d

assessed

66

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

54.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0229

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0047

actual -0.0127

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.046378	-0.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042856	-0.14%	0.0466	+8.59%	0.0844	✗	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054723	-0.77%	0.042915	-22.18%	0.2469	✓	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055087	-0.57%	0.05515	-0.46%	0.0017	✓	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.05559	-0.47%	0.055405	-0.80%	0.0055	✓	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058789	-0.52%	0.05585	-5.49%	0.0509	✓	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058657	-0.66%	0.059095	+0.08%	0.0097	✗	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058975	-0.61%	0.059045	-0.50%	0.0008	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058985	-0.73%	0.05934	-0.13%	0.0119	✗	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059983	-0.72%	0.05942	-1.66%	0.0146	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059777	-0.71%	0.06042	+0.36%	0.0190	✗	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060255	-0.68%	0.060205	-0.77%	0.0040	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060563	-0.63%	0.06067	-0.45%	0.0002	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.060195	-0.55%	0.060945	+0.69%	0.0089	✗	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061426	-0.65%	0.06053	-2.09%	0.0079	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061267	-0.73%	0.061825	+0.18%	0.0199	✗	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061231	-0.74%	0.061715	+0.04%	0.0089	✗	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061212	-0.81%	0.06169	-0.03%	0.0116	✗	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060973	-0.69%	0.06171	+0.51%	0.0035	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061304	-0.64%	0.061395	-0.49%	0.0003	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.061211	-0.44%	0.0617	+0.36%	0.0097	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.06112	-0.44%	0.06148	+0.15%	0.0005	✓	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.061013	-0.32%	0.06139	+0.29%	0.0066	✗	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.060457	-0.26%	0.06121	+0.98%	0.0114	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060623	-0.19%	0.060615	-0.21%	0.0053	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060952	-0.18%	0.06074	-0.52%	0.0037	✓	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060826	-0.15%	0.06106	+0.24%	0.0021	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.061102	-0.11%	0.060915	-0.42%	0.0014	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.061102	-0.11%	0.06117	+0.00%	0.0011	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060601	-0.22%	0.06117	+0.72%	0.0210	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.06095	-0.36%	0.060735	-0.71%	0.0009	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.061306	-0.21%	0.06117	-0.43%	0.0378	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.060348	-0.18%	0.061435	+1.61%	0.0184	✗	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.061242	-0.21%	0.06046	-1.48%	0.0154	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.061182	+0.05%	0.06137	+0.36%	0.0266	✗	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.062114	+0.17%	0.06115	-1.39%	0.0170	✗	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.061175	+0.52%	0.06201	+1.89%	0.0098	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.060806	+0.47%	0.06086	+0.56%	0.0230	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.061232	+0.75%	0.06052	-0.42%	0.0229	✗	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.063023	+0.68%	0.060775	-2.91%	0.0324	✗	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.065419	+0.58%	0.062595	-3.77%	0.0446	✗	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.065411	+0.54%	0.065045	-0.02%	0.0112	✗	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.065206	+0.53%	0.06506	+0.31%	0.0149	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.066705	+0.32%	0.06486	-2.46%	0.0264	✗	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.068104	+0.06%	0.066495	-2.31%	0.0172	✗	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069811	-0.17%	0.068065	-2.67%	0.0115	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071568	-0.43%	0.06993	-2.71%	0.0295	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071766	-0.42%	0.071875	-0.27%	0.0004	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072958	-0.23%	0.07207	-1.45%	0.0075	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073883	-0.48%	0.07313	-1.50%	0.0602	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.074089	-0.39%	0.07424	-0.19%	0.0032	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074701	-0.33%	0.07438	-0.76%	0.0106	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075511	-0.37%	0.07495	-1.11%	0.0189	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074853	-0.37%	0.07579	+0.88%	0.0197	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.075979	-0.46%	0.07513	-1.57%	0.0163	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.076371	-0.77%	0.07633	-0.82%	0.0303	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.081265	-1.10%	0.07696	-6.34%	0.0701	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.082433	-1.34%	0.08217	-1.65%	0.0095	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.087024	-1.90%	0.08355	-5.82%	0.0350	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.085204	-1.75%	0.08871	+2.29%	0.0243	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.085204	-1.74%	0.08672	+0.01%	0.0089	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.082232	-1.47%	0.08671	+3.89%	0.0694	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.081607	-1.39%	0.08346	+0.85%	0.0478	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.083332	-1.80%	0.08276	-2.47%	0.0591	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.083442	-1.78%	0.08486	-0.11%	0.0521	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.083638	-1.20%	0.08495	+0.35%	0.0124	✗	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.084362	-0.12%	0.08465	+0.22%	0.0224	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.