UMX

UMX · · gru_s2

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +30d

assessed

37

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2008

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0615

actual -0.2589

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.04456	-4.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041474	-3.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.051913	-5.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.052005	-6.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.052702	-5.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.056032	-5.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.056162	-4.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.056639	-4.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.057196	-3.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.057982	-4.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.057878	-3.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.058252	-3.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.058278	-4.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.057745	-4.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.058569	-5.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.058213	-5.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.058094	-5.83%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.058017	-5.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.058083	-5.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.058486	-5.21%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.058404	-5.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.0581	-5.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.057899	-5.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.057345	-5.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.057411	-5.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.05746	-5.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.057143	-6.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.057385	-6.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.0574	-6.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.057182	-5.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.057704	-5.67%	0.0466	-23.82%	0.1877	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.05707	-7.10%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.2970	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.056156	-7.12%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0223	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.056873	-7.33%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0340	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.055133	-9.84%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0199	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.056197	-9.37%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0152	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.055758	-8.38%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0153	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.055947	-7.56%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0310	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.056631	-6.82%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0016	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.058754	-6.14%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0085	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.061388	-5.62%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0719	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.061511	-5.45%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0650	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.062693	-3.34%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0686	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.064651	-2.77%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0974	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.066868	-1.76%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.1205	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069536	-0.56%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.1747	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.070646	-1.71%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.2071	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.070651	-1.97%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.2176	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.07244	-0.94%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.2073	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.071355	-3.89%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.2344	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.071718	-3.58%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.2459	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.071988	-3.95%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.2209	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.072125	-4.84%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.2382	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.071489	-4.85%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.2296	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.071967	-5.72%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.2513	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.073524	-4.46%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2361	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.076676	-6.69%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.2923	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.077688	-7.02%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.3110	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.082409	-7.10%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.3641	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.080848	-6.77%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.3895	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.080646	-6.99%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.3931	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.077831	-6.74%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.2721	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.075102	-9.25%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.3236	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.07438	-12.35%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.3467	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.076733	-9.67%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.3928	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.076782	-9.29%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3800	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.078915	-6.57%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.4445	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.