SWM
Swarm · · gru_s2
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +7d
assessed
49
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
55.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2863
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.1297
actual +0.0251
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.089224 | -1.88% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.089186 | -1.80% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.089693 | -1.92% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.090117 | -1.98% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.090714 | -3.08% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.091237 | -2.54% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.092208 | -2.98% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.086633 | -2.32% | 0.090935 | +2.53% | 0.0876 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.088173 | -1.89% | 0.090825 | +1.06% | 0.0758 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.099011 | -4.44% | 0.091445 | -11.74% | 0.0828 | ✓ | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.097673 | -3.27% | 0.09194 | -8.95% | 0.0585 | ✓ | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.095703 | -4.52% | 0.093595 | -6.62% | 0.0575 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.095363 | -4.70% | 0.09361 | -6.45% | 0.0512 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.093733 | -5.22% | 0.09504 | -3.89% | 0.0085 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.093072 | -6.00% | 0.08869 | -10.43% | 0.0390 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.087889 | -8.80% | 0.089875 | -6.73% | 0.0141 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.085447 | -13.13% | 0.10361 | +5.33% | 0.1398 | ✓ | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.076612 | -9.30% | 0.100975 | +19.55% | 0.1907 | ✗ | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.081368 | -12.37% | 0.10023 | +7.94% | 0.1473 | ✗ | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.080952 | -10.84% | 0.100065 | +10.21% | 0.1706 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.083464 | -10.91% | 0.09889 | +5.56% | 0.1252 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.085419 | -10.22% | 0.099015 | +4.07% | 0.0758 | ✓ | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.09714 | -10.21% | 0.096365 | -10.92% | 0.0143 | ✓ | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.11153 | -12.00% | 0.098365 | -22.39% | 0.0831 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.107972 | -12.60% | 0.084465 | -31.63% | 0.1944 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.135311 | -14.46% | 0.092855 | -41.30% | 0.3266 | ✓ | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.113452 | -11.30% | 0.090795 | -29.01% | 0.2149 | ✓ | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.094914 | -9.97% | 0.09368 | -11.14% | 0.0032 | ✓ | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.093374 | -10.23% | 0.095145 | -8.52% | 0.0299 | ✓ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.092886 | -10.58% | 0.10818 | +4.14% | 0.1326 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.085456 | -9.87% | 0.12674 | +33.67% | 0.3356 | ✗ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.091868 | -10.67% | 0.123535 | +20.12% | 0.2230 | ✗ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.104129 | -7.95% | 0.15819 | +39.84% | 0.5033 | ✗ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.10825 | -8.96% | 0.127905 | +7.56% | 0.2494 | ✗ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.108439 | -9.33% | 0.10542 | -11.86% | 0.0555 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.121836 | -5.78% | 0.10401 | -19.57% | 0.2583 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.127126 | -9.48% | 0.10388 | -26.03% | 0.3046 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.114373 | -11.90% | 0.094815 | -26.96% | 0.3189 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.126562 | -18.73% | 0.10284 | -33.96% | 0.3099 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.124215 | -20.69% | 0.11312 | -27.77% | 0.1488 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.148328 | -20.06% | 0.11891 | -35.91% | 0.2712 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.156907 | -19.99% | 0.1196 | -39.01% | 0.3179 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.149549 | -19.56% | 0.12931 | -30.44% | 0.1430 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.108844 | -20.38% | 0.14044 | +2.74% | 0.2826 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.109122 | -20.45% | 0.129815 | -5.36% | 0.2108 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.094664 | -19.42% | 0.15573 | +32.55% | 0.5095 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.085803 | -16.63% | 0.156615 | +52.18% | 0.6468 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.069743 | -9.40% | 0.18555 | +141.04% | 1.0112 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.067742 | -10.44% | 0.196105 | +159.26% | 1.0944 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.065607 | -10.48% | 0.18591 | +153.66% | 1.1015 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.062221 | -11.27% | 0.1367 | +94.95% | 0.7745 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.060779 | -12.90% | 0.13717 | +96.57% | 0.8005 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.059427 | -14.44% | 0.117485 | +69.14% | 0.6748 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.059859 | -16.21% | 0.102915 | +44.06% | 0.5081 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.056209 | -21.56% | 0.07698 | +7.42% | 0.2942 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.051792 | -30.60% | 0.07564 | +1.35% | 0.3554 | ✓ | 1.00 |