SWM
Swarm · · gru_s2
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 165
Track record at +30d
assessed
25
of 55 predictions shown
direction hit
64.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.3999
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.5220
actual -0.1469
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.09181 | 0.088015 | -4.13% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.086042 | -5.91% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.085894 | -6.58% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.084231 | -10.01% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.085689 | -8.46% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.085505 | -10.03% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.079218 | -10.68% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.081531 | -9.28% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.088494 | -14.59% | – | pending | – | – | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.088715 | -12.14% | – | pending | – | – | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.083119 | -17.07% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.081516 | -18.54% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.077855 | -21.27% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.075147 | -24.10% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.065682 | -31.84% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.060951 | -38.04% | – | pending | – | – | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.056932 | -32.60% | – | pending | – | – | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.060603 | -34.73% | – | pending | – | – | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.056753 | -37.49% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.059291 | -36.71% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.06472 | -31.98% | – | pending | – | – | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.074149 | -31.46% | – | pending | – | – | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.082054 | -35.26% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.078034 | -36.83% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.098286 | -37.87% | – | pending | – | – | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.089185 | -30.27% | – | pending | – | – | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.076389 | -27.54% | – | pending | – | – | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.07659 | -26.36% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.076985 | -25.89% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.071852 | -24.22% | – | pending | – | – | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.077372 | -24.76% | 0.09181 | -10.73% | 0.0798 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.085607 | -24.32% | 0.091445 | -19.16% | 0.1122 | ✓ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.0877 | -26.25% | 0.09194 | -22.68% | 0.0631 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.08409 | -29.69% | 0.093595 | -21.74% | 0.1369 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.097447 | -24.64% | 0.09361 | -27.61% | 0.1040 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.092085 | -34.43% | 0.09504 | -32.33% | 0.0364 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.077021 | -40.67% | 0.08869 | -31.68% | 0.0581 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.075791 | -51.33% | 0.089875 | -42.29% | 0.1280 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.070338 | -55.09% | 0.10361 | -33.84% | 0.3085 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.093505 | -49.61% | 0.100975 | -45.58% | 0.0205 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.101498 | -48.24% | 0.10023 | -48.89% | 0.0930 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.099653 | -46.40% | 0.100065 | -46.18% | 0.0759 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.068603 | -49.81% | 0.09889 | -27.66% | 0.3127 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.070637 | -48.50% | 0.099015 | -27.82% | 0.2972 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.062182 | -47.07% | 0.096365 | -17.98% | 0.3865 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.061279 | -40.46% | 0.098365 | -4.42% | 0.4105 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.055478 | -27.93% | 0.084465 | +9.72% | 0.3488 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.052917 | -30.04% | 0.092855 | +22.76% | 0.4800 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.052098 | -28.91% | 0.090795 | +23.88% | 0.5136 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.047113 | -32.81% | 0.09368 | +33.60% | 0.5983 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.044555 | -36.15% | 0.095145 | +36.35% | 0.6668 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.04347 | -37.42% | 0.10818 | +55.74% | 0.8501 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.042278 | -40.82% | 0.12674 | +77.41% | 1.0238 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.036153 | -49.55% | 0.123535 | +72.39% | 1.1641 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.025904 | -65.29% | 0.15819 | +111.97% | 1.7277 | ✗ | 1.00 |