SWM
Swarm · · gru_s2
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 165
Track record at +1d
assessed
54
of 55 predictions shown
direction hit
48.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.0799
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0255
actual +0.0042
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.09181 | 0.091372 | -0.48% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.090946 | -0.55% | 0.09181 | +0.40% | 0.0049 | ✓ | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.091473 | -0.51% | 0.091445 | -0.54% | 0.0207 | ✗ | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.092961 | -0.68% | 0.09194 | -1.77% | 0.0143 | ✓ | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.093082 | -0.56% | 0.093595 | -0.02% | 0.0176 | ✗ | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.094456 | -0.61% | 0.09361 | -1.50% | 0.0113 | ✓ | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.088312 | -0.43% | 0.09504 | +7.16% | 0.0616 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.089569 | -0.34% | 0.08869 | -1.32% | 0.0007 | ✓ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.102649 | -0.93% | 0.089875 | -13.26% | 0.1644 | ✓ | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.100359 | -0.61% | 0.10361 | +2.61% | 0.0603 | ✗ | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.099266 | -0.96% | 0.100975 | +0.74% | 0.0238 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.099112 | -0.95% | 0.10023 | +0.16% | 0.0274 | ✗ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.097838 | -1.06% | 0.100065 | +1.19% | 0.0303 | ✗ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.09781 | -1.22% | 0.09889 | -0.13% | 0.0293 | ✗ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.094265 | -2.18% | 0.099015 | +2.75% | 0.0155 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.094335 | -4.10% | 0.096365 | -2.03% | 0.0279 | ✓ | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.08245 | -2.39% | 0.098365 | +16.46% | 0.1721 | ✗ | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.090005 | -3.07% | 0.084465 | -9.04% | 0.0797 | ✓ | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.088846 | -2.15% | 0.092855 | +2.27% | 0.0831 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.09174 | -2.07% | 0.090795 | -3.08% | 0.0050 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.093329 | -1.91% | 0.09368 | -1.54% | 0.0040 | ✓ | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.106118 | -1.91% | 0.095145 | -12.05% | 0.0807 | ✓ | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.123824 | -2.30% | 0.10818 | -14.64% | 0.1369 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.120513 | -2.45% | 0.12674 | +2.59% | 0.0545 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.152387 | -3.67% | 0.123535 | -21.91% | 0.2349 | ✓ | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.124193 | -2.90% | 0.15819 | +23.68% | 0.2431 | ✗ | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.102963 | -2.33% | 0.127905 | +21.33% | 0.2247 | ✗ | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.101436 | -2.47% | 0.10542 | +1.36% | 0.0315 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.101319 | -2.47% | 0.10401 | +0.13% | 0.0264 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.092906 | -2.01% | 0.10388 | +9.56% | 0.0702 | ✗ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.100734 | -2.05% | 0.094815 | -7.80% | 0.0697 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.111299 | -1.61% | 0.10284 | -9.09% | 0.0593 | ✗ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.116843 | -1.74% | 0.11312 | -4.87% | 0.0343 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.117679 | -1.61% | 0.11891 | -0.58% | 0.0199 | ✗ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.128313 | -0.77% | 0.1196 | -7.51% | 0.1279 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.138478 | -1.40% | 0.12931 | -7.93% | 0.0712 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.127898 | -1.48% | 0.14044 | +8.18% | 0.0862 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.150921 | -3.09% | 0.129815 | -16.64% | 0.1169 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.15142 | -3.32% | 0.15573 | -0.57% | 0.0103 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.179535 | -3.24% | 0.156615 | -15.59% | 0.1306 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.189521 | -3.36% | 0.18555 | -5.38% | 0.0219 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.178772 | -3.84% | 0.196105 | +5.48% | 0.0838 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.131609 | -3.72% | 0.18591 | +36.00% | 0.3680 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.131473 | -4.15% | 0.1367 | -0.34% | 0.0411 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.112105 | -4.58% | 0.13717 | +16.76% | 0.2100 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.097807 | -4.96% | 0.117485 | +14.16% | 0.1990 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.073931 | -3.96% | 0.102915 | +33.69% | 0.3244 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.072209 | -4.54% | 0.07698 | +1.77% | 0.0620 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.069766 | -4.81% | 0.07564 | +3.21% | 0.1006 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.066898 | -4.59% | 0.07329 | +4.52% | 0.0413 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.066424 | -4.81% | 0.07012 | +0.49% | 0.0553 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.066198 | -4.70% | 0.06978 | +0.46% | 0.0676 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.068383 | -4.28% | 0.06946 | -2.77% | 0.0041 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.068722 | -4.10% | 0.07144 | -0.31% | 0.0461 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.070941 | -4.94% | 0.07166 | -3.98% | 0.0050 | ✓ | 1.00 |