NIULAI

? · · gru_s2

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +7d

assessed

48

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

77.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1748

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0311

actual -0.0428

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.06254	0.061167	-2.20%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.061136	-2.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.057313	-1.10%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.058162	-1.03%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.059245	-0.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.064649	-0.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.067032	-0.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.069437	-0.28%	0.06254	-10.18%	0.1254	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.073832	-1.07%	0.0625	-16.25%	0.1637	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.072028	-0.04%	0.05795	-19.58%	0.2192	✓	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.077985	-1.62%	0.058765	-25.87%	0.2547	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.078746	-1.66%	0.059455	-25.75%	0.2548	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.074041	-0.20%	0.065015	-12.37%	0.1121	✓	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.073569	+0.64%	0.06738	-7.82%	0.0953	✗	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.071691	+0.01%	0.06963	-2.87%	0.0008	✓	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.07601	-3.88%	0.07463	-5.62%	0.0209	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.07403	-3.61%	0.07206	-6.17%	0.0383	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.077993	-5.29%	0.07927	-3.74%	0.0603	✗	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.077713	-2.99%	0.080075	-0.04%	0.0590	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.083959	-4.10%	0.07419	-15.26%	0.0926	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.093948	-5.36%	0.0731	-26.36%	0.2027	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.098976	-5.58%	0.071685	-31.61%	0.3182	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.099067	-5.77%	0.079075	-24.78%	0.2549	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.108748	-6.13%	0.0768	-33.70%	0.3830	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.099017	-4.82%	0.08235	-20.84%	0.2172	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.101154	-4.43%	0.08011	-24.31%	0.2385	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.100002	-4.13%	0.08755	-16.06%	0.1397	✓	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.09731	-3.31%	0.09927	-1.36%	0.0124	✓	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.103852	-3.31%	0.104825	-2.41%	0.0226	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.110094	-1.99%	0.10513	-6.41%	0.0067	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.106187	-1.47%	0.115845	+7.49%	0.1359	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.09514	-5.89%	0.10403	+2.91%	0.0308	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.102198	-5.30%	0.10584	-1.92%	0.0202	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.113974	-4.72%	0.104305	-12.80%	0.1445	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.099301	-6.56%	0.10064	-5.30%	0.0867	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.094761	-5.76%	0.10741	+6.82%	0.0226	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.114109	-4.68%	0.112325	-6.17%	0.1472	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.118637	-2.96%	0.10777	-11.84%	0.1984	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.113441	-3.12%	0.10109	-13.66%	0.1705	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.127909	-5.20%	0.107915	-20.02%	0.2201	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.11982	-4.73%	0.11962	-4.89%	0.0481	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.113963	-6.11%	0.10627	-12.45%	0.0674	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.079271	+0.87%	0.10055	+27.95%	0.2655	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.100043	-2.04%	0.11971	+17.22%	0.2167	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.084117	+3.02%	0.12225	+49.72%	0.3855	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.091642	+0.68%	0.11709	+28.64%	0.2901	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.111862	-7.22%	0.134925	+11.92%	0.2202	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.084126	+0.01%	0.125765	+49.51%	0.4336	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.092744	-3.70%	0.12138	+26.03%	0.3290	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.077344	-0.61%	0.078585	+0.98%	0.0034	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.082008	-1.62%	0.102125	+22.51%	0.2059	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.099229	-3.54%	0.08165	-20.63%	0.2017	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.096551	-4.86%	0.09102	-10.31%	0.0928	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.054629	-0.57%	0.12056	+119.44%	0.7714	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.055609	-0.80%	0.08412	+50.05%	0.3906	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.