NIULAI

? · · gru_s2

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +1d

assessed

54

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

57.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0915

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0098

actual +0.0006

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.06254	0.062181	-0.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.062169	-0.53%	0.06254	+0.06%	0.0105	✗	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.057881	-0.12%	0.0625	+7.85%	0.0563	✗	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.058744	-0.04%	0.05795	-1.39%	0.0104	✓	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.059491	+0.06%	0.058765	-1.16%	0.0240	✗	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.064964	-0.08%	0.059455	-8.55%	0.0864	✓	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.067301	-0.12%	0.065015	-3.51%	0.0231	✓	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.069574	-0.08%	0.06738	-3.23%	0.0424	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.074302	-0.44%	0.06963	-6.70%	0.0374	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.071982	-0.11%	0.07463	+3.57%	0.0118	✗	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.078507	-0.96%	0.07206	-9.10%	0.0529	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.079186	-1.11%	0.07927	-1.01%	0.0119	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.073764	-0.57%	0.080075	+7.93%	0.0759	✗	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.072937	-0.22%	0.07419	+1.49%	0.0024	✗	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.071139	-0.76%	0.0731	+1.97%	0.0549	✗	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.077067	-2.54%	0.071685	-9.35%	0.0360	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.075201	-2.08%	0.079075	+2.96%	0.0536	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.080784	-1.90%	0.0768	-6.74%	0.0389	✓	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.078983	-1.41%	0.08235	+2.80%	0.0143	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.086227	-1.51%	0.08011	-8.50%	0.0773	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.097816	-1.46%	0.08755	-11.81%	0.1057	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.103239	-1.51%	0.09927	-5.30%	0.0594	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.103709	-1.35%	0.104825	-0.29%	0.0120	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.114184	-1.43%	0.10513	-9.25%	0.0854	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.102824	-1.16%	0.115845	+11.36%	0.1357	✗	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.104609	-1.16%	0.10403	-1.71%	0.0063	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.103098	-1.16%	0.10584	+1.47%	0.0210	✗	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.099601	-1.03%	0.104305	+3.64%	0.0509	✗	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.106217	-1.11%	0.10064	-6.30%	0.0540	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.111377	-0.84%	0.10741	-4.38%	0.0083	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.107017	-0.70%	0.112325	+4.23%	0.0545	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.099661	-1.41%	0.10777	+6.61%	0.0168	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.106439	-1.37%	0.10109	-6.32%	0.0503	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.118192	-1.19%	0.107915	-9.79%	0.0973	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.105075	-1.12%	0.11962	+12.56%	0.0720	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.099568	-0.98%	0.10627	+5.69%	0.0625	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.118824	-0.74%	0.10055	-16.01%	0.1744	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.121312	-0.77%	0.11971	-2.08%	0.0204	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.116246	-0.72%	0.12225	+4.41%	0.0326	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.132482	-1.81%	0.11709	-13.22%	0.1175	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.123274	-1.98%	0.134925	+7.28%	0.0896	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.118125	-2.68%	0.125765	+3.61%	0.0539	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.079087	+0.64%	0.12138	+54.46%	0.4510	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.100791	-1.31%	0.078585	-23.05%	0.2468	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.081996	+0.42%	0.102125	+25.08%	0.2277	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.090168	-0.94%	0.08165	-10.29%	0.0836	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.118336	-1.84%	0.09102	-24.50%	0.2688	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.083376	-0.88%	0.12056	+43.32%	0.3668	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.095587	-0.75%	0.08412	-12.66%	0.1080	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.077284	-0.69%	0.09631	+23.76%	0.1702	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.082698	-0.79%	0.07782	-6.65%	0.0596	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.101554	-1.28%	0.08336	-18.97%	0.1825	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.098991	-2.45%	0.10287	+1.37%	0.0269	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.054777	-0.30%	0.10148	+84.71%	0.6239	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.055855	-0.37%	0.05494	-2.00%	0.0216	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.