MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s2

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 138

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

of 46 predictions shown

direction hit

23.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.3792

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

+0.0431

actual -0.2757

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.003037	0.002752	-9.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.002985	0.002693	-9.80%	–	pending	–	–	1.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001767	-1.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001902	-2.08%	–	pending	–	–	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001775	-0.62%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002057	-1.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002299	-2.63%	–	pending	–	–	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002359	-2.63%	0.003037	+25.32%	0.2285	✗	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002235	-0.80%	0.002985	+32.51%	0.2626	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.002059	+0.78%	0.0018	-11.92%	0.1325	✗	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002177	+1.03%	0.001942	-9.86%	0.1154	✗	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001887	+3.15%	0.001786	-2.38%	0.0249	✓	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.0019	+3.87%	0.002094	+14.49%	0.1248	✓	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001928	+4.31%	0.002361	+27.75%	0.2214	✓	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002184	+3.74%	0.002423	+15.11%	0.0960	✓	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002471	+2.44%	0.002253	-6.59%	0.0622	✗	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.00244	+2.54%	0.002043	-14.16%	0.1297	✗	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002905	+0.97%	0.002155	-25.11%	0.2215	✗	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.002421	+4.05%	0.001829	-21.36%	0.2187	✗	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001857	+8.11%	0.001829	+6.46%	0.0156	✓	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001834	+8.87%	0.001849	+9.74%	0.0411	✓	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001843	+9.17%	0.002105	+24.70%	0.1880	✓	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002609	+9.15%	0.002412	+0.92%	0.0725	✓	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003316	+7.15%	0.00238	-23.09%	0.3696	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003837	+5.54%	0.002877	-20.86%	0.3337	✗	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003871	+5.47%	0.002327	-36.61%	0.5330	✗	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004696	+2.89%	0.001718	-62.36%	1.0094	✗	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.00505	+2.19%	0.001685	-65.91%	1.1027	✗	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004662	+3.72%	0.001688	-62.45%	1.0215	✗	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004761	+3.80%	0.00239	-47.90%	0.6794	✗	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004983	+2.92%	0.003095	-36.09%	0.4463	✗	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005453	+1.96%	0.003635	-32.02%	0.3685	✗	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004733	+6.00%	0.00367	-17.81%	0.2942	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004566	+6.96%	0.004564	+6.91%	0.0389	✓	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005913	+5.54%	0.004941	-11.81%	0.2185	✗	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005883	+6.80%	0.004495	-18.41%	0.3693	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004667	+7.44%	0.004587	+5.59%	0.1200	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.006371	+7.58%	0.004842	-18.24%	0.4058	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.009045	+5.83%	0.005348	-37.43%	0.6278	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006751	+7.39%	0.004465	-28.97%	0.4687	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.009007	+7.18%	0.004269	-49.20%	0.7968	✗	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006439	+1.21%	0.005603	-11.92%	0.1854	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008862	+4.84%	0.005509	-34.83%	0.4730	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.01098	+4.72%	0.004344	-58.57%	0.8996	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.018521	+3.73%	0.005922	-66.83%	1.1030	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.018616	+3.39%	0.008547	-52.53%	0.7668	✗	1.00