MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s2

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 135

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 45 predictions shown

direction hit

56.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1484

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0048

actual -0.0513

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001936	0.001922	-0.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.82
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.00179	-0.53%	0.001936	+7.59%	0.0809	✗	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001929	-0.69%	0.0018	-7.34%	0.0810	✓	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001778	-0.46%	0.001942	+8.73%	0.0902	✗	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.00208	-0.68%	0.001786	-14.71%	0.1595	✓	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002338	-1.01%	0.002094	-11.33%	0.1087	✓	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002391	-1.32%	0.002361	-2.54%	0.0052	✓	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002228	-1.10%	0.002423	+7.55%	0.0776	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.002021	-1.08%	0.002253	+10.28%	0.1292	✗	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002123	-1.45%	0.002043	-5.18%	0.0571	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001817	-0.68%	0.002155	+17.76%	0.2054	✗	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001823	-0.34%	0.001829	+0.03%	0.0099	✓	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001846	-0.15%	0.001829	-1.05%	0.0156	✓	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.00209	-0.73%	0.001849	-12.19%	0.1384	✓	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002354	-2.38%	0.002105	-12.73%	0.0842	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.002296	-3.52%	0.002412	+1.34%	0.0937	✗	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002738	-4.83%	0.00238	-17.27%	0.1362	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.00223	-4.13%	0.002877	+23.66%	0.2708	✗	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001717	-0.09%	0.002327	+35.42%	0.2749	✗	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001709	+1.44%	0.001718	+1.99%	0.0014	✓	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001719	+1.82%	0.001685	-0.21%	0.0142	✓	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002414	+1.02%	0.001688	-29.37%	0.3845	✗	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003102	+0.25%	0.00239	-22.77%	0.2591	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003627	-0.23%	0.003095	-14.88%	0.1625	✓	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003652	-0.49%	0.003635	-0.94%	0.0074	✗	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.00449	-1.63%	0.00367	-19.59%	0.2022	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004821	-2.43%	0.004564	-7.64%	0.0587	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004396	-2.19%	0.004941	+9.93%	0.1203	✗	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004471	-2.52%	0.004495	-2.01%	0.0052	✓	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004672	-3.51%	0.004587	-5.27%	0.0030	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005134	-4.00%	0.004842	-9.46%	0.0540	✓	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004452	-0.30%	0.005348	+19.78%	0.1186	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004288	+0.44%	0.004465	+4.59%	0.0414	✓	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005562	-0.73%	0.004269	-23.81%	0.2690	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005575	+1.21%	0.005603	+1.71%	0.0527	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004469	+2.88%	0.005509	+26.82%	0.2065	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.006031	+1.84%	0.004344	-26.65%	0.3355	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.00838	-1.96%	0.005922	-30.71%	0.3135	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006394	+1.70%	0.008547	+35.96%	0.2725	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008389	-0.17%	0.006287	-25.20%	0.2825	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006595	+3.68%	0.008404	+32.11%	0.2416	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008757	+3.60%	0.006361	-24.74%	0.3283	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010787	+2.88%	0.008453	-19.38%	0.2212	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.018101	+1.38%	0.010485	-41.28%	0.5439	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.018212	+1.15%	0.017855	-0.83%	0.0116	✗	1.00