MEGA

MegaETH · Megaeth · gru_s2

token id: #156
symbol: MEGA
variant: –
chain: Megaeth
address: 0x28b7e77f82b25b95953825f1e3ea0e36c1c29861
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-30
predictions: 498

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

165

of 166 predictions shown

direction hit

57.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0325

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0035

actual -0.0071

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.04289	0.04251	-0.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.043355	0.042971	-0.89%	0.04289	-1.07%	0.0026	✓	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.04405	0.043689	-0.82%	0.043355	-1.58%	0.0283	✓	1.54
2026-10-18	oos	0.043835	0.043481	-0.81%	0.04405	+0.49%	0.0162	✗	1.54
2026-10-17	oos	0.045285	0.044926	-0.79%	0.043835	-3.20%	0.0364	✓	1.54
2026-10-16	oos	0.046835	0.046425	-0.88%	0.045285	-3.31%	0.0226	✓	1.53
2026-10-15	oos	0.04549	0.045054	-0.96%	0.046835	+2.96%	0.0506	✗	1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.04571	0.045279	-0.94%	0.04549	-0.48%	0.0059	✓	1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.04441	0.04394	-1.06%	0.04571	+2.93%	0.0693	✗	1.60
2026-10-12	oos	0.04366	0.043275	-0.88%	0.04441	+1.72%	0.0005	✓	1.60
2026-10-11	oos	0.04673	0.04612	-1.31%	0.04366	-6.57%	0.0184	✓	1.55
2026-10-10	oos	0.04303	0.042651	-0.88%	0.04673	+8.60%	0.0776	✗	1.49
2026-10-09	oos	0.04147	0.041185	-0.69%	0.04303	+3.76%	0.0372	✗	1.49
2026-10-08	oos	0.041015	0.040784	-0.56%	0.04147	+1.11%	0.0012	✓	1.49
2026-10-07	oos	0.044345	0.043965	-0.86%	0.041015	-7.51%	0.0415	✓	1.46
2026-10-06	oos	0.04624	0.045687	-1.20%	0.044345	-4.10%	0.0093	✓	1.46
2026-10-05	oos	0.05004	0.049253	-1.57%	0.04624	-7.59%	0.0596	✓	1.46
2026-10-04	oos	0.049155	0.048482	-1.37%	0.05004	+1.80%	0.0445	✗	1.46
2026-10-03	oos	0.049975	0.049139	-1.67%	0.049155	-1.64%	0.0301	✓	1.48
2026-10-02	oos	0.04632	0.045696	-1.35%	0.049975	+7.89%	0.0854	✗	1.47
2026-10-01	oos	0.050135	0.049315	-1.63%	0.04632	-7.61%	0.0567	✓	1.46
2026-09-30	oos	0.04177	0.041495	-0.66%	0.050135	+20.03%	0.1675	✗	1.41
2026-09-29	oos	0.04198	0.041732	-0.59%	0.04177	-0.50%	0.0023	✓	1.45
2026-09-28	oos	0.042205	0.041978	-0.54%	0.04198	-0.53%	0.0031	✓	1.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.0439	0.043677	-0.51%	0.042205	-3.86%	0.0170	✓	1.44
2026-09-26	oos	0.04483	0.044616	-0.48%	0.0439	-2.07%	0.0169	✓	1.45
2026-09-25	oos	0.046525	0.046312	-0.46%	0.04483	-3.64%	0.0381	✓	1.45
2026-09-24	oos	0.04491	0.04477	-0.31%	0.046525	+3.60%	0.0435	✗	1.46
2026-09-23	oos	0.04363	0.043559	-0.16%	0.04491	+2.93%	0.0304	✗	1.46
2026-09-22	oos	0.046545	0.046463	-0.18%	0.04363	-6.26%	0.0314	✓	1.48
2026-09-21	oos	0.045275	0.045198	-0.17%	0.046545	+2.81%	0.0364	✗	1.52
2026-09-20	oos	0.04299	0.042852	-0.32%	0.045275	+5.32%	0.0466	✓	1.57
2026-09-19	oos	0.042385	0.042239	-0.34%	0.04299	+1.43%	0.0190	✗	1.56
2026-09-18	oos	0.04088	0.04074	-0.34%	0.042385	+3.68%	0.0328	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.03529	0.035194	-0.27%	0.04088	+15.84%	0.0690	✗	1.40
2026-09-16	oos	0.03452	0.034452	-0.20%	0.03529	+2.23%	0.0204	✗	1.38
2026-09-15	oos	0.03408	0.034033	-0.14%	0.03452	+1.29%	0.0048	✗	1.28
2026-09-14	oos	0.03571	0.035658	-0.15%	0.03408	-4.56%	0.0026	✓	1.27
2026-09-13	oos	0.03547	0.035413	-0.16%	0.03571	+0.68%	0.0144	✓	1.28
2026-09-12	oos	0.037075	0.037013	-0.17%	0.03547	-4.33%	0.0350	✓	1.26
2026-09-11	oos	0.037625	0.037581	-0.12%	0.037075	-1.46%	0.0144	✓	1.26
2026-09-10	oos	0.036865	0.036847	-0.05%	0.037625	+2.06%	0.0090	✗	1.36
2026-09-09	oos	0.038645	0.038632	-0.03%	0.036865	-4.61%	0.0164	✓	1.35
2026-09-08	oos	0.042145	0.042089	-0.13%	0.038645	-8.30%	0.0825	✓	1.37
2026-09-07	oos	0.04017	0.040178	+0.02%	0.042145	+4.92%	0.0594	✓	1.41
2026-09-06	oos	0.03958	0.039644	+0.16%	0.04017	+1.49%	0.0359	✓	1.45
2026-09-05	oos	0.04015	0.040195	+0.11%	0.03958	-1.42%	0.0246	✗	1.45
2026-09-04	oos	0.03859	0.038674	+0.22%	0.04015	+4.04%	0.0345	✓	1.48
2026-09-03	oos	0.04007	0.040103	+0.08%	0.03859	-3.69%	0.0091	✗	1.48
2026-09-02	oos	0.03669	0.036802	+0.31%	0.04007	+9.21%	0.0110	✓	1.48
2026-09-01	oos	0.03744	0.037501	+0.16%	0.03669	-2.00%	0.0201	✗	1.49
2026-08-31	oos	0.03794	0.038014	+0.20%	0.03744	-1.32%	0.0061	✓	1.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.036695	0.036789	+0.26%	0.03794	+3.39%	0.0149	✓	1.38
2026-08-29	oos	0.03841	0.038468	+0.15%	0.036695	-4.46%	0.0372	✗	1.36
2026-08-28	oos	0.03741	0.037477	+0.18%	0.03841	+2.67%	0.0177	✓	1.36
2026-08-27	oos	0.03913	0.039134	+0.01%	0.03741	-4.40%	0.0029	✗	1.37
2026-08-26	oos	0.03951	0.039429	-0.21%	0.03913	-0.96%	0.0292	✓	1.38
2026-08-25	oos	0.0389	0.038761	-0.36%	0.03951	+1.57%	0.0104	✗	1.39
2026-08-24	oos	0.04019	0.039883	-0.76%	0.0389	-3.21%	0.0171	✓	1.37
2026-08-23	oos	0.04286	0.042312	-1.28%	0.04019	-6.23%	0.0742	✓	1.42
2026-08-22	oos	0.04024	0.039784	-1.13%	0.04286	+6.51%	0.0622	✗	1.41
2026-08-21	oos	0.04248	0.041737	-1.75%	0.04024	-5.27%	0.0137	✓	1.40
2026-08-20	oos	0.03781	0.037413	-1.05%	0.04248	+12.35%	0.0331	✗	1.34
2026-08-19	oos	0.03489	0.034737	-0.44%	0.03781	+8.37%	0.0151	✗	1.33
2026-08-18	oos	0.03205	0.031768	-0.88%	0.03489	+8.86%	0.0014	✓	1.34
2026-08-17	oos	0.0322	0.031897	-0.94%	0.03205	-0.47%	0.0006	✓	1.34
2026-08-16	oos	0.03155	0.031535	-0.05%	0.0322	+2.06%	0.0138	✓	1.35
2026-08-15	oos	0.03123	0.031255	+0.08%	0.03155	+1.02%	0.0133	✓	1.35
2026-08-14	oos	0.03115	0.031229	+0.25%	0.03123	+0.26%	0.0009	✓	1.35
2026-08-13	oos	0.032655	0.032712	+0.17%	0.03115	-4.61%	0.0392	✗	1.36
2026-08-12	oos	0.03322	0.033278	+0.17%	0.032655	-1.70%	0.0192	✗	1.37
2026-08-11	oos	0.03314	0.033199	+0.18%	0.03322	+0.24%	0.0032	✓	1.37
2026-08-10	oos	0.0364	0.036375	-0.07%	0.03314	-8.96%	0.0849	✓	1.37
2026-08-09	oos	0.03598	0.03596	-0.06%	0.0364	+1.17%	0.0327	✗	1.41
2026-08-08	oos	0.036165	0.036125	-0.11%	0.03598	-0.51%	0.0027	✓	1.41
2026-08-07	oos	0.03528	0.035231	-0.14%	0.036165	+2.51%	0.0258	✗	1.41
2026-08-06	oos	0.03555	0.035528	-0.06%	0.03528	-0.76%	0.0207	✓	1.42
2026-08-05	oos	0.03607	0.03598	-0.25%	0.03555	-1.44%	0.0046	✓	1.42
2026-08-04	oos	0.03584	0.03577	-0.20%	0.03607	+0.64%	0.0039	✓	1.43
2026-08-03	oos	0.03669	0.036608	-0.22%	0.03584	-2.32%	0.0343	✓	1.43
2026-08-02	oos	0.03651	0.03643	-0.22%	0.03669	+0.49%	0.0079	✗	1.43
2026-08-01	oos	0.0365	0.036445	-0.15%	0.03651	+0.03%	0.0150	✓	1.44
2026-07-31	oos	0.03654	0.036483	-0.16%	0.0365	-0.11%	0.0019	✗	1.43
2026-07-30	oos	0.037	0.036913	-0.24%	0.03654	-1.24%	0.0325	✗	1.44
2026-07-29	oos	0.036395	0.036329	-0.18%	0.037	+1.66%	0.0007	✓	1.37
2026-07-28	oos	0.03957	0.039443	-0.32%	0.036395	-8.02%	0.0815	✓	1.37
2026-07-27	oos	0.03972	0.039592	-0.32%	0.03957	-0.38%	0.0039	✓	1.37
2026-07-26	oos	0.04325	0.043048	-0.47%	0.03972	-8.16%	0.0462	✓	1.34
2026-07-25	oos	0.042525	0.042325	-0.47%	0.04325	+1.70%	0.0000	✓	1.34
2026-07-24	oos	0.04349	0.043243	-0.57%	0.042525	-2.22%	0.0212	✓	1.34
2026-07-23	oos	0.043165	0.042885	-0.65%	0.04349	+0.75%	0.0344	✗	1.36
2026-07-22	oos	0.04369	0.043556	-0.31%	0.043165	-1.20%	0.0126	✗	1.37
2026-07-21	oos	0.04336	0.04331	-0.12%	0.04369	+0.76%	0.0177	✗	1.38
2026-07-20	oos	0.04278	0.04274	-0.09%	0.04336	+1.36%	0.0128	✓	1.38
2026-07-19	oos	0.04405	0.043992	-0.13%	0.04278	-2.88%	0.0393	✓	1.39
2026-07-18	oos	0.04448	0.044427	-0.12%	0.04405	-0.97%	0.0061	✓	1.39
2026-07-17	oos	0.0433	0.04327	-0.07%	0.04448	+2.73%	0.0083	✗	1.37
2026-07-16	oos	0.0461	0.046019	-0.18%	0.0433	-6.07%	0.0636	✓	1.38
2026-07-15	oos	0.048025	0.047965	-0.13%	0.0461	-4.01%	0.0194	✓	1.38
2026-07-14	oos	0.04904	0.049008	-0.07%	0.048025	-2.07%	0.0145	✓	1.38
2026-07-13	oos	0.04726	0.047168	-0.19%	0.04904	+3.77%	0.0207	✓	1.39
2026-07-12	oos	0.046095	0.046102	+0.02%	0.04726	+2.53%	0.0588	✓	1.45
2026-07-11	oos	0.04668	0.0467	+0.04%	0.046095	-1.25%	0.0123	✗	1.45
2026-07-10	oos	0.04743	0.047472	+0.09%	0.04668	-1.58%	0.0088	✗	1.45
2026-07-09	oos	0.04796	0.048005	+0.09%	0.04743	-1.11%	0.0340	✗	1.47
2026-07-08	oos	0.04733	0.04737	+0.09%	0.04796	+1.33%	0.0095	✗	1.46
2026-07-07	oos	0.05032	0.050357	+0.07%	0.04733	-5.94%	0.0369	✗	1.45
2026-07-06	oos	0.04941	0.049466	+0.11%	0.05032	+1.84%	0.0327	✓	1.46
2026-07-05	oos	0.05132	0.051363	+0.08%	0.04941	-3.72%	0.0484	✗	1.48
2026-07-04	oos	0.05242	0.052458	+0.07%	0.05132	-2.10%	0.0336	✗	1.49
2026-07-03	oos	0.05103	0.051093	+0.12%	0.05242	+2.72%	0.0124	✓	1.47
2026-07-02	oos	0.04957	0.049632	+0.12%	0.05103	+2.95%	0.0034	✓	1.46
2026-07-01	oos	0.04514	0.045387	+0.55%	0.04957	+9.81%	0.0539	✓	1.37
2026-06-30	oos	0.04523	0.045421	+0.42%	0.04514	-0.20%	0.0399	✗	1.39
2026-06-29	oos	0.04809	0.048199	+0.23%	0.04523	-5.95%	0.0254	✗	1.38
2026-06-28	oos	0.04569	0.045845	+0.34%	0.04809	+5.25%	0.0323	✓	1.34
2026-06-27	oos	0.04725	0.047325	+0.16%	0.04569	-3.30%	0.0248	✗	1.34
2026-06-26	oos	0.04671	0.046802	+0.20%	0.04725	+1.16%	0.0110	✓	1.34
2026-06-25	oos	0.04651	0.046598	+0.19%	0.04671	+0.43%	0.0043	✗	1.33
2026-06-24	oos	0.05069	0.050717	+0.05%	0.04651	-8.25%	0.0591	✗	1.30
2026-06-23	oos	0.05551	0.055471	-0.07%	0.05069	-8.68%	0.0564	✓	1.25
2026-06-22	oos	0.055825	0.05579	-0.06%	0.05551	-0.56%	0.0215	✗	1.28
2026-06-21	oos	0.05648	0.056395	-0.15%	0.055825	-1.16%	0.0247	✓	1.29
2026-06-20	oos	0.0547	0.054651	-0.09%	0.05648	+3.25%	0.0536	✗	1.33
2026-06-19	oos	0.05704	0.056888	-0.27%	0.0547	-4.10%	0.0552	✓	1.37
2026-06-18	oos	0.06217	0.061632	-0.86%	0.05704	-8.25%	0.0909	✓	1.42
2026-06-17	oos	0.05711	0.05684	-0.47%	0.06217	+8.86%	0.1284	✗	1.58
2026-06-16	oos	0.05749	0.057192	-0.52%	0.05711	-0.66%	0.0275	✗	1.61
2026-06-15	oos	0.06028	0.059842	-0.73%	0.05749	-4.63%	0.0241	✓	1.60
2026-06-14	oos	0.06287	0.062088	-1.24%	0.06028	-4.12%	0.0436	✓	1.63
2026-06-13	oos	0.06271	0.061404	-2.08%	0.06287	+0.26%	0.0087	✓	1.65
2026-06-12	oos	0.04665	0.046381	-0.58%	0.06271	+34.43%	0.2829	✗	1.34
2026-06-11	oos	0.04609	0.045819	-0.59%	0.04665	+1.22%	0.0185	✗	1.33
2026-06-10	oos	0.04252	0.042382	-0.32%	0.04609	+8.40%	0.0437	✗	1.19
2026-06-09	oos	0.04721	0.046799	-0.87%	0.04252	-9.93%	0.0913	✓	1.19
2026-06-08	oos	0.0501	0.049481	-1.24%	0.04721	-5.77%	0.0209	✓	1.18
2026-06-07	oos	0.04848	0.04783	-1.34%	0.0501	+3.34%	0.0508	✗	1.18
2026-06-06	oos	0.0446	0.043888	-1.60%	0.04848	+8.70%	0.0614	✗	0.96
2026-06-05	oos	0.04611	0.045147	-2.09%	0.0446	-3.27%	0.0093	✓	0.96
2026-06-04	oos	0.05057	0.049475	-2.17%	0.04611	-8.82%	0.0304	✓	0.90
2026-06-03	oos	0.05429	0.052946	-2.48%	0.05057	-6.85%	0.0426	✓	0.90
2026-06-02	oos	0.05456	0.053888	-1.23%	0.05429	-0.49%	0.0517	✗	1.10
2026-06-01	oos	0.05913	0.05915	+0.03%	0.05456	-7.73%	0.0095	✓	1.34
2026-05-31	oos	0.06097	0.0611	+0.21%	0.05913	-3.02%	0.0156	✓	1.55
2026-05-30	oos	0.06306	0.063201	+0.22%	0.06097	-3.31%	0.0318	✗	1.55
2026-05-29	oos	0.061625	0.061848	+0.36%	0.06306	+2.33%	0.0139	✓	1.00
2026-05-28	oos	0.0634	0.063662	+0.41%	0.061625	-2.80%	0.0305	✗	1.00
2026-05-27	oos	0.06753	0.067832	+0.45%	0.0634	-6.12%	0.0567	✗	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.0677	0.068121	+0.62%	0.06753	-0.25%	0.0114	✓	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.073915	0.074256	+0.46%	0.0677	-8.41%	0.0738	✗	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.07738	0.077693	+0.40%	0.073915	-4.48%	0.0534	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.08015	0.080446	+0.37%	0.07738	-3.46%	0.0431	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.08032	0.080667	+0.43%	0.08015	-0.21%	0.0223	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.087	0.086978	-0.02%	0.08032	-7.68%	0.0521	✓	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.081605	0.081975	+0.45%	0.087	+6.61%	0.0586	✓	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.08112	0.081751	+0.78%	0.081605	+0.60%	0.0110	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.086	0.086546	+0.64%	0.08112	-5.67%	0.0625	✗	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.08994	0.090373	+0.48%	0.086	-4.38%	0.0436	✗	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.09273	0.092857	+0.14%	0.08994	-3.01%	0.0229	✗	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.10026	0.099382	-0.88%	0.09273	-7.51%	0.0572	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.10538	0.104321	-1.00%	0.10026	-4.86%	0.0145	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.10337	0.102647	-0.70%	0.10538	+1.94%	0.0039	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.10977	0.108847	-0.84%	0.10337	-5.83%	0.0366	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.11857	0.117817	-0.63%	0.10977	-7.42%	0.0554	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.12692	0.126245	-0.53%	0.11857	-6.58%	0.0570	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.12551	0.124666	-0.67%	0.12692	+1.12%	0.0010	✓	1.00