LIGHTER

? · · gru_s2

token id: #154
symbol: LIGHTER
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-01-15
predictions: 816

Track record at +7d

assessed

265

of 272 predictions shown

direction hit

56.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1212

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0107

actual +0.0190

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	3.8075	3.7126	-2.49%	–	pending	–	–	1.28
2026-10-21	oos	3.763	3.676	-2.31%	–	pending	–	–	1.30
2026-10-20	oos	3.382	3.3278	-1.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.30
2026-10-19	oos	3.095	3.0777	-0.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.28
2026-10-18	oos	3.074	3.0635	-0.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.30
2026-10-17	oos	3.116	3.112	-0.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.30
2026-10-16	oos	3.176	3.1736	-0.08%	–	pending	–	–	1.30
2026-10-15	oos	3.0255	3.0409	+0.51%	3.8075	+25.85%	0.1918	✓	1.31
2026-10-14	oos	3.085	3.1008	+0.51%	3.763	+21.98%	0.1546	✓	1.31
2026-10-13	oos	3.3505	3.3331	-0.52%	3.382	+0.94%	0.0171	✗	1.30
2026-10-12	oos	3.3745	3.3663	-0.24%	3.095	-8.28%	0.0856	✓	1.32
2026-10-11	oos	3.838	3.7822	-1.45%	3.074	-19.91%	0.1808	✓	1.32
2026-10-10	oos	3.637	3.6115	-0.70%	3.116	-14.32%	0.1218	✓	1.38
2026-10-09	oos	3.628	3.616	-0.33%	3.176	-12.46%	0.1122	✓	1.38
2026-10-08	oos	3.607	3.6066	-0.01%	3.0255	-16.12%	0.1830	✓	1.39
2026-10-07	oos	3.574	3.5712	-0.08%	3.085	-13.68%	0.1164	✓	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	3.818	3.7808	-0.97%	3.3505	-12.24%	0.0797	✓	1.42
2026-10-05	oos	4.019	3.96	-1.47%	3.3745	-16.04%	0.0915	✓	1.43
2026-10-04	oos	3.665	3.642	-0.63%	3.838	+4.72%	0.1016	✗	1.48
2026-10-03	oos	3.567	3.5784	+0.32%	3.637	+1.96%	0.0487	✓	1.48
2026-10-02	oos	3.545	3.5716	+0.75%	3.628	+2.34%	0.0508	✓	1.50
2026-10-01	oos	3.806	3.8058	-0.00%	3.607	-5.23%	0.0027	✗	1.49
2026-09-30	oos	3.948	3.9401	-0.20%	3.574	-9.47%	0.0924	✓	1.51
2026-09-29	oos	3.926	3.9176	-0.21%	3.818	-2.75%	0.0591	✓	1.48
2026-09-28	oos	4.445	4.386	-1.33%	4.019	-9.58%	0.1285	✓	1.52
2026-09-27	oos	4.655	4.5783	-1.65%	3.665	-21.27%	0.2579	✓	1.48
2026-09-26	oos	4.8445	4.7626	-1.69%	3.567	-26.37%	0.2948	✓	1.48
2026-09-25	oos	4.8545	4.7782	-1.57%	3.545	-26.97%	0.3058	✓	1.48
2026-09-24	oos	5.071	4.9867	-1.66%	3.806	-24.95%	0.2783	✓	1.48
2026-09-23	oos	5.309	5.2044	-1.97%	3.948	-25.64%	0.2618	✓	1.48
2026-09-22	oos	5.0675	4.9671	-1.98%	3.926	-22.53%	0.1886	✓	1.55
2026-09-21	oos	4.7405	4.6526	-1.85%	4.445	-6.23%	0.0074	✓	1.44
2026-09-20	oos	4.778	4.6885	-1.87%	4.655	-2.57%	0.0734	✓	1.66
2026-09-19	oos	4.8145	4.7246	-1.87%	4.8445	+0.62%	0.0387	✓	1.66
2026-09-18	oos	4.7725	4.6884	-1.76%	4.8545	+1.72%	0.0294	✓	1.65
2026-09-17	oos	4.816	4.7348	-1.69%	5.071	+5.29%	0.1148	✓	1.83
2026-09-16	oos	4.605	4.5409	-1.39%	5.309	+15.29%	0.0302	✓	1.82
2026-09-15	oos	4.0195	4.0297	+0.25%	5.0675	+26.07%	0.0098	✗	1.82
2026-09-14	oos	4.3875	4.3454	-0.96%	4.7405	+8.05%	0.0942	✓	1.77
2026-09-13	oos	4.1115	4.1056	-0.14%	4.778	+16.21%	0.0553	✗	1.74
2026-09-12	oos	4.217	4.2042	-0.30%	4.8145	+14.17%	0.0486	✗	1.74
2026-09-11	oos	4.353	4.3356	-0.40%	4.7725	+9.64%	0.0158	✗	1.73
2026-09-10	oos	4.2905	4.2847	-0.14%	4.816	+12.25%	0.1212	✗	1.74
2026-09-09	oos	4.5275	4.5046	-0.50%	4.605	+1.71%	0.0698	✗	1.73
2026-09-08	oos	4.826	4.778	-0.99%	4.0195	-16.71%	0.1075	✓	1.76
2026-09-07	oos	4.7225	4.6875	-0.74%	4.3875	-7.09%	0.0452	✓	1.79
2026-09-06	oos	4.516	4.5053	-0.24%	4.1115	-8.96%	0.0127	✓	1.75
2026-09-05	oos	4.754	4.7299	-0.51%	4.217	-11.30%	0.0575	✓	1.75
2026-09-04	oos	4.823	4.7859	-0.77%	4.353	-9.74%	0.0421	✓	1.68
2026-09-03	oos	4.441	4.428	-0.29%	4.2905	-3.39%	0.0738	✗	1.76
2026-09-02	oos	3.792	3.807	+0.40%	4.5275	+19.40%	0.1540	✓	1.54
2026-09-01	oos	3.52	3.5478	+0.79%	4.826	+37.10%	0.2865	✓	1.58
2026-08-31	oos	3.565	3.5957	+0.86%	4.7225	+32.47%	0.2633	✓	1.39
2026-08-30	oos	3.531	3.556	+0.71%	4.516	+27.90%	0.2075	✓	0.93
2026-08-29	oos	3.554	3.5845	+0.86%	4.754	+33.76%	0.2634	✓	0.94
2026-08-28	oos	3.497	3.5235	+0.76%	4.823	+37.92%	0.2921	✓	0.94
2026-08-27	oos	3.711	3.7378	+0.72%	4.441	+19.67%	0.1612	✓	0.91
2026-08-26	oos	3.453	3.4599	+0.20%	3.792	+9.82%	0.1112	✓	0.89
2026-08-25	oos	3.285	3.2838	-0.04%	3.52	+7.15%	0.0821	✗	0.88
2026-08-24	oos	3.401	3.3922	-0.26%	3.565	+4.82%	0.0544	✗	0.89
2026-08-23	oos	3.578	3.5384	-1.11%	3.531	-1.31%	0.0013	✓	0.99
2026-08-22	oos	3.187	3.1592	-0.87%	3.554	+11.52%	0.1030	✗	0.97
2026-08-21	oos	3.128	3.0966	-1.00%	3.497	+11.80%	0.1277	✗	0.99
2026-08-20	oos	2.669	2.6305	-1.44%	3.711	+39.04%	0.2650	✗	0.83
2026-08-19	oos	2.602	2.5462	-2.14%	3.453	+32.71%	0.1715	✗	1.01
2026-08-18	oos	2.359	2.3129	-1.95%	3.285	+39.25%	0.1618	✗	0.97
2026-08-17	oos	2.332	2.2863	-1.96%	3.401	+45.84%	0.1914	✗	1.01
2026-08-16	oos	2.276	2.2381	-1.66%	3.578	+57.21%	0.2510	✗	1.03
2026-08-15	oos	2.266	2.2298	-1.60%	3.187	+40.64%	0.1535	✗	1.01
2026-08-14	oos	2.234	2.2008	-1.48%	3.128	+40.02%	0.1296	✗	1.02
2026-08-13	oos	2.271	2.2333	-1.66%	2.669	+17.53%	0.0366	✗	1.01
2026-08-12	oos	2.335	2.2923	-1.83%	2.602	+11.43%	0.0333	✗	1.05
2026-08-11	oos	2.418	2.3681	-2.06%	2.359	-2.44%	0.0225	✓	1.04
2026-08-10	oos	2.383	2.3333	-2.08%	2.332	-2.14%	0.0098	✓	1.05
2026-08-09	oos	2.304	2.2572	-2.03%	2.276	-1.22%	0.0429	✗	1.10
2026-08-08	oos	2.282	2.239	-1.88%	2.266	-0.70%	0.0446	✗	1.10
2026-08-07	oos	2.2975	2.2544	-1.88%	2.234	-2.76%	0.0235	✗	1.09
2026-08-06	oos	2.371	2.3205	-2.13%	2.271	-4.22%	0.0071	✓	1.10
2026-08-05	oos	2.186	2.1487	-1.71%	2.335	+6.82%	0.1039	✗	1.12
2026-08-04	oos	2.056	2.0317	-1.18%	2.418	+17.61%	0.1828	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	2.0035	1.9863	-0.86%	2.383	+18.94%	0.1746	✗	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	2.038	2.0197	-0.90%	2.304	+13.05%	0.1088	✗	1.09
2026-08-01	oos	2.018	2.0064	-0.57%	2.282	+13.08%	0.0929	✗	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	2.068	2.0532	-0.72%	2.2975	+11.10%	0.0779	✗	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	2.281	2.2444	-1.60%	2.371	+3.95%	0.0618	✗	0.99
2026-07-29	oos	2.179	2.1555	-1.08%	2.186	+0.32%	0.0034	✓	0.97
2026-07-28	oos	2.301	2.2669	-1.48%	2.056	-10.65%	0.1007	✓	0.95
2026-07-27	oos	2.129	2.1095	-0.92%	2.0035	-5.89%	0.0482	✓	0.93
2026-07-26	oos	2.145	2.1192	-1.20%	2.038	-4.99%	0.0129	✓	0.92
2026-07-25	oos	2.064	2.0491	-0.72%	2.018	-2.23%	0.0072	✓	0.93
2026-07-24	oos	2.0315	2.0207	-0.53%	2.068	+1.80%	0.0412	✗	0.91
2026-07-23	oos	2.1585	2.1343	-1.12%	2.281	+5.68%	0.0709	✗	0.88
2026-07-22	oos	2.305	2.2721	-1.43%	2.179	-5.47%	0.0133	✓	0.85
2026-07-21	oos	2.344	2.3069	-1.58%	2.301	-1.83%	0.0321	✗	0.85
2026-07-20	oos	2.179	2.1505	-1.31%	2.129	-2.29%	0.0081	✓	0.77
2026-07-19	oos	2.209	2.1801	-1.31%	2.145	-2.90%	0.0241	✓	0.77
2026-07-18	oos	2.257	2.229	-1.24%	2.064	-8.55%	0.0710	✓	0.75
2026-07-17	oos	2.288	2.2585	-1.29%	2.0315	-11.21%	0.1084	✓	0.84
2026-07-16	oos	2.285	2.2565	-1.25%	2.1585	-5.54%	0.0618	✓	0.87
2026-07-15	oos	2.414	2.3771	-1.53%	2.305	-4.52%	0.0482	✓	0.83
2026-07-14	oos	2.595	2.5428	-2.01%	2.344	-9.67%	0.1005	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	2.305	2.2661	-1.69%	2.179	-5.47%	0.0721	✓	0.71
2026-07-12	oos	2.63	2.5693	-2.31%	2.209	-16.01%	0.1603	✓	0.63
2026-07-11	oos	2.577	2.5188	-2.26%	2.257	-12.42%	0.1198	✓	0.63
2026-07-10	oos	2.688	2.6154	-2.70%	2.288	-14.88%	0.1311	✓	0.70
2026-07-09	oos	2.396	2.3419	-2.26%	2.285	-4.63%	0.0308	✓	0.66
2026-07-08	oos	2.3285	2.2792	-2.12%	2.414	+3.67%	0.0299	✗	0.71
2026-07-07	oos	2.459	2.4032	-2.27%	2.595	+5.53%	0.0591	✗	0.68
2026-07-06	oos	2.578	2.5088	-2.69%	2.305	-10.59%	0.0657	✓	0.69
2026-07-05	oos	2.462	2.3922	-2.83%	2.63	+6.82%	0.0931	✗	0.69
2026-07-04	oos	2.199	2.1493	-2.26%	2.577	+17.19%	0.1743	✗	0.67
2026-07-03	oos	2.118	2.0743	-2.06%	2.688	+26.91%	0.2425	✗	0.66
2026-07-02	oos	2.067	2.0273	-1.92%	2.396	+15.92%	0.1494	✗	0.65
2026-07-01	oos	2.074	2.024	-2.41%	2.3285	+12.27%	0.1149	✗	0.68
2026-06-30	oos	1.85	1.8171	-1.78%	2.459	+32.92%	0.2572	✗	0.58
2026-06-29	oos	1.861	1.8205	-2.18%	2.578	+38.53%	0.3123	✗	0.58
2026-06-28	oos	1.731	1.702	-1.68%	2.462	+42.23%	0.3296	✗	0.59
2026-06-27	oos	1.72	1.6927	-1.59%	2.199	+27.85%	0.2321	✗	0.58
2026-06-26	oos	1.825	1.79	-1.92%	2.118	+16.05%	0.1443	✗	0.58
2026-06-25	oos	1.609	1.592	-1.06%	2.067	+28.46%	0.2446	✗	0.56
2026-06-24	oos	1.697	1.6672	-1.76%	2.074	+22.22%	0.2277	✗	0.55
2026-06-23	oos	1.504	1.4843	-1.31%	1.85	+23.01%	0.2692	✗	0.72
2026-06-22	oos	1.611	1.5805	-1.89%	1.861	+15.52%	0.2047	✗	0.68
2026-06-21	oos	1.567	1.5383	-1.83%	1.731	+10.47%	0.1589	✗	0.67
2026-06-20	oos	1.558	1.5291	-1.85%	1.72	+10.40%	0.1622	✗	0.64
2026-06-19	oos	1.544	1.5186	-1.64%	1.825	+18.20%	0.2226	✗	0.69
2026-06-18	oos	1.613	1.5861	-1.66%	1.609	-0.25%	0.0509	✗	0.71
2026-06-17	oos	1.72	1.6846	-2.06%	1.697	-1.34%	0.0427	✗	0.64
2026-06-16	oos	1.734	1.6955	-2.22%	1.504	-13.26%	0.0901	✓	0.64
2026-06-15	oos	1.688	1.6494	-2.29%	1.611	-4.56%	0.0013	✓	0.69
2026-06-14	oos	1.684	1.6439	-2.38%	1.567	-6.95%	0.0225	✓	0.66
2026-06-13	oos	1.629	1.5937	-2.17%	1.558	-4.36%	0.0204	✓	0.69
2026-06-12	oos	1.537	1.5114	-1.66%	1.544	+0.46%	0.0220	✗	0.65
2026-06-11	oos	1.558	1.5308	-1.75%	1.613	+3.53%	0.0593	✗	0.65
2026-06-10	oos	1.392	1.3834	-0.62%	1.72	+23.56%	0.1913	✗	0.56
2026-06-09	oos	1.584	1.5625	-1.35%	1.734	+9.47%	0.0696	✗	0.56
2026-06-08	oos	1.467	1.4517	-1.04%	1.688	+15.06%	0.1206	✗	0.61
2026-06-07	oos	1.433	1.4215	-0.80%	1.684	+17.52%	0.1464	✗	0.62
2026-06-06	oos	1.425	1.424	-0.07%	1.629	+14.32%	0.0992	✗	0.62
2026-06-05	oos	1.503	1.498	-0.33%	1.537	+2.26%	0.0010	✓	0.66
2026-06-04	oos	1.466	1.4608	-0.36%	1.558	+6.28%	0.0672	✗	0.73
2026-06-03	oos	1.781	1.7485	-1.82%	1.392	-21.84%	0.1972	✓	0.75
2026-06-02	oos	1.606	1.57	-2.24%	1.584	-1.37%	0.0834	✗	0.96
2026-06-01	oos	1.336	1.3164	-1.47%	1.467	+9.81%	0.2828	✗	1.42
2026-05-31	oos	1.377	1.3483	-2.08%	1.433	+4.07%	0.2774	✗	1.44
2026-05-30	oos	1.3695	1.3379	-2.31%	1.425	+4.05%	0.3250	✗	1.36
2026-05-29	oos	1.262	1.2331	-2.29%	1.503	+19.10%	0.4456	✗	1.35
2026-05-28	oos	1.174	1.1548	-1.64%	1.466	+24.87%	0.4299	✗	1.35
2026-05-27	oos	1.128	1.1127	-1.36%	1.781	+57.89%	0.6757	✗	1.38
2026-05-26	oos	1.184	1.1656	-1.55%	1.606	+35.64%	0.4971	✗	1.37
2026-05-25	oos	1.384	1.3472	-2.66%	1.336	-3.47%	0.0891	✗	1.22
2026-05-24	oos	1.295	1.2617	-2.57%	1.377	+6.33%	0.1419	✗	1.21
2026-05-23	oos	1.2265	1.2001	-2.15%	1.3695	+11.66%	0.1774	✗	1.19
2026-05-22	oos	1.186	1.1655	-1.73%	1.262	+6.41%	0.1126	✗	1.18
2026-05-21	oos	1.431	1.3761	-3.84%	1.174	-17.96%	0.1011	✓	1.08
2026-05-20	oos	1.278	1.2336	-3.48%	1.128	-11.74%	0.0441	✓	1.09
2026-05-19	oos	1.134	1.1001	-2.99%	1.184	+4.41%	0.0867	✗	1.07
2026-05-18	oos	0.954	0.931261	-2.38%	1.384	+45.07%	0.3918	✗	1.12
2026-05-17	oos	0.8635	0.850224	-1.54%	1.295	+49.97%	0.4272	✗	1.15
2026-05-16	oos	0.8775	0.863015	-1.65%	1.2265	+39.77%	0.3732	✗	1.15
2026-05-15	oos	0.857	0.842872	-1.65%	1.186	+38.39%	0.3953	✗	1.15
2026-05-14	oos	0.915	0.895968	-2.08%	1.431	+56.39%	0.5189	✗	1.14
2026-05-13	oos	0.898	0.8819	-1.79%	1.278	+42.32%	0.3988	✗	1.20
2026-05-12	oos	0.9265	0.909435	-1.84%	1.134	+22.40%	0.2771	✗	1.19
2026-05-11	oos	0.9995	0.980295	-1.92%	0.954	-4.55%	0.0435	✗	1.17
2026-05-10	oos	1.059	1.0378	-2.01%	0.8635	-18.46%	0.1133	✓	1.17
2026-05-09	oos	1.053	1.0301	-2.17%	0.8775	-16.67%	0.1224	✓	1.18
2026-05-08	oos	1.077	1.0512	-2.40%	0.857	-20.43%	0.1875	✓	1.18
2026-05-07	oos	0.989	0.967858	-2.14%	0.915	-7.48%	0.0718	✓	1.17
2026-05-06	oos	0.954	0.936394	-1.85%	0.898	-5.87%	0.0088	✓	1.23
2026-05-05	oos	0.966	0.945768	-2.09%	0.9265	-4.09%	0.0151	✓	1.04
2026-05-04	oos	0.906	0.88856	-1.92%	0.9995	+10.32%	0.0948	✗	0.99
2026-05-03	oos	0.923	0.904652	-1.99%	1.059	+14.73%	0.1120	✗	1.00
2026-05-02	oos	0.908	0.891313	-1.84%	1.053	+15.97%	0.1416	✗	1.02
2026-05-01	oos	0.903	0.88777	-1.69%	1.077	+19.27%	0.1681	✗	1.02
2026-04-30	oos	0.8845	0.871531	-1.47%	0.989	+11.81%	0.0775	✗	1.03
2026-04-29	oos	0.9475	0.928928	-1.96%	0.954	+0.69%	0.0484	✓	1.04
2026-04-28	oos	0.897	0.880168	-1.88%	0.966	+7.69%	0.0272	✗	1.13
2026-04-27	oos	0.8635	0.84867	-1.72%	0.906	+4.92%	0.0294	✗	1.14
2026-04-26	oos	0.913	0.896559	-1.80%	0.923	+1.10%	0.0307	✗	1.15
2026-04-25	oos	0.93	0.912733	-1.86%	0.908	-2.37%	0.0206	✓	1.17
2026-04-24	oos	0.9475	0.930628	-1.78%	0.903	-4.70%	0.0420	✓	1.20
2026-04-23	oos	0.9245	0.909905	-1.58%	0.8845	-4.33%	0.0023	✓	1.20
2026-04-22	oos	0.8805	0.869382	-1.26%	0.9475	+7.61%	0.1242	✗	1.20
2026-04-21	oos	0.8975	0.885861	-1.30%	0.897	-0.06%	0.0130	✓	1.21
2026-04-20	oos	0.9005	0.889273	-1.25%	0.8635	-4.11%	0.0532	✓	1.22
2026-04-19	oos	0.89	0.87998	-1.13%	0.913	+2.58%	0.0395	✓	1.20
2026-04-18	oos	0.976	0.96392	-1.24%	0.93	-4.71%	0.0655	✓	1.19
2026-04-17	oos	1.0495	1.0359	-1.29%	0.9475	-9.72%	0.0948	✓	1.19
2026-04-16	oos	1.043	1.0269	-1.55%	0.9245	-11.36%	0.1536	✓	1.20
2026-04-15	oos	1.0425	1.0255	-1.63%	0.8805	-15.54%	0.2051	✓	1.19
2026-04-14	oos	1.0235	1.0076	-1.55%	0.8975	-12.31%	0.1501	✓	1.19
2026-04-13	oos	1.1435	1.1223	-1.86%	0.9005	-21.25%	0.2427	✓	1.19
2026-04-12	oos	1.094	1.0753	-1.71%	0.89	-18.65%	0.2401	✓	1.20
2026-04-11	oos	1.206	1.1786	-2.27%	0.976	-19.07%	0.2308	✓	1.18
2026-04-10	oos	1.136	1.1104	-2.25%	1.0495	-7.61%	0.1209	✓	1.18
2026-04-09	oos	1.016	1.0005	-1.53%	1.043	+2.66%	0.0114	✓	1.16
2026-04-08	oos	0.999	0.985476	-1.35%	1.0425	+4.35%	0.0032	✓	1.16
2026-04-07	oos	1.073	1.0531	-1.85%	1.0235	-4.61%	0.0643	✓	1.15
2026-04-06	oos	1.0245	1.0075	-1.66%	1.1435	+11.62%	0.0368	✗	1.15
2026-04-05	oos	1.0095	0.99425	-1.51%	1.094	+8.37%	0.0668	✗	1.15
2026-04-04	oos	0.986	0.975896	-1.02%	1.206	+22.31%	0.1166	✗	1.15
2026-04-03	oos	0.989	0.980038	-0.91%	1.136	+14.86%	0.0483	✗	1.15
2026-04-02	oos	0.949	0.940847	-0.86%	1.016	+7.06%	0.0044	✓	1.15
2026-04-01	oos	0.889	0.884567	-0.50%	0.999	+12.37%	0.0719	✗	1.16
2026-03-31	oos	0.871	0.867568	-0.39%	1.073	+23.19%	0.1513	✗	1.16
2026-03-30	oos	0.8075	0.810618	+0.39%	1.0245	+26.87%	0.1984	✓	1.14
2026-03-29	oos	0.8265	0.831638	+0.62%	1.0095	+22.14%	0.1418	✓	1.15
2026-03-28	oos	0.8575	0.862702	+0.61%	0.986	+14.99%	0.1169	✓	1.15
2026-03-27	oos	0.8825	0.887931	+0.62%	0.989	+12.07%	0.0973	✓	1.15
2026-03-26	oos	0.912	0.914062	+0.23%	0.949	+4.06%	0.0695	✓	1.16
2026-03-25	oos	0.9945	0.992228	-0.23%	0.889	-10.61%	0.0577	✓	1.14
2026-03-24	oos	1.0085	1.0059	-0.26%	0.871	-13.63%	0.1058	✓	1.15
2026-03-23	oos	0.954	0.953676	-0.03%	0.8075	-15.36%	0.0975	✓	1.15
2026-03-22	oos	0.9405	0.94292	+0.26%	0.8265	-12.12%	0.0989	✗	1.17
2026-03-21	oos	1.052	1.0504	-0.15%	0.8575	-18.49%	0.1587	✓	1.15
2026-03-20	oos	1.064	1.063	-0.09%	0.8825	-17.06%	0.1160	✓	1.16
2026-03-19	oos	1.1945	1.1906	-0.32%	0.912	-23.65%	0.2471	✓	1.18
2026-03-18	oos	1.213	1.2088	-0.35%	0.9945	-18.01%	0.1961	✓	1.18
2026-03-17	oos	1.296	1.2862	-0.76%	1.0085	-22.18%	0.1881	✓	1.17
2026-03-16	oos	1.1645	1.1611	-0.29%	0.954	-18.08%	0.1312	✓	1.19
2026-03-15	oos	1.087	1.0847	-0.21%	0.9405	-13.48%	0.0599	✓	1.17
2026-03-14	oos	1.107	1.1054	-0.15%	1.052	-4.97%	0.0103	✓	1.18
2026-03-13	oos	1.0995	1.099	-0.04%	1.064	-3.23%	0.0249	✓	1.18
2026-03-12	oos	1.1525	1.1502	-0.20%	1.1945	+3.64%	0.0482	✗	1.19
2026-03-11	oos	1.0715	1.0725	+0.09%	1.213	+13.21%	0.1058	✓	1.18
2026-03-10	oos	1.055	1.057	+0.19%	1.296	+22.84%	0.1388	✓	1.18
2026-03-09	oos	1.021	1.025	+0.39%	1.1645	+14.05%	0.0218	✓	1.17
2026-03-08	oos	1.019	1.0256	+0.65%	1.087	+6.67%	0.0603	✗	1.20
2026-03-07	oos	1.13	1.1318	+0.16%	1.107	-2.04%	0.0900	✗	1.18
2026-03-06	oos	1.14	1.1423	+0.20%	1.0995	-3.55%	0.0865	✗	1.18
2026-03-05	oos	1.2085	1.2077	-0.07%	1.1525	-4.63%	0.0408	✓	1.18
2026-03-04	oos	1.373	1.3675	-0.40%	1.0715	-21.96%	0.2040	✓	1.15
2026-03-03	oos	1.301	1.2978	-0.25%	1.055	-18.91%	0.2346	✓	1.17
2026-03-02	oos	1.357	1.3525	-0.33%	1.021	-24.76%	0.2743	✓	1.17
2026-03-01	oos	1.359	1.3576	-0.10%	1.019	-25.02%	0.2906	✓	1.22
2026-02-28	oos	1.38	1.3767	-0.24%	1.13	-18.12%	0.2028	✓	1.22
2026-02-27	oos	1.358	1.357	-0.07%	1.14	-16.05%	0.2153	✓	1.22
2026-02-26	oos	1.4295	1.4247	-0.34%	1.2085	-15.46%	0.2244	✓	1.22
2026-02-25	oos	1.456	1.4486	-0.51%	1.373	-5.70%	0.1349	✓	1.22
2026-02-24	oos	1.4305	1.4288	-0.12%	1.301	-9.05%	0.1771	✓	1.29
2026-02-23	oos	1.386	1.3853	-0.05%	1.357	-2.09%	0.1021	✓	1.29
2026-02-22	oos	1.4465	1.4384	-0.56%	1.359	-6.05%	0.0207	✓	1.30
2026-02-21	oos	1.514	1.5049	-0.60%	1.38	-8.85%	0.0676	✓	1.30
2026-02-20	oos	1.532	1.5241	-0.52%	1.358	-11.36%	0.0739	✓	1.31
2026-02-19	oos	1.476	1.4722	-0.26%	1.4295	-3.15%	0.0395	✓	1.30
2026-02-18	oos	1.445	1.444	-0.07%	1.456	+0.76%	0.0221	✓	1.30
2026-02-17	oos	1.591	1.585	-0.38%	1.4305	-10.09%	0.0359	✓	1.29
2026-02-16	oos	1.687	1.6761	-0.65%	1.386	-17.84%	0.1087	✓	1.28
2026-02-15	oos	1.68	1.6698	-0.61%	1.4465	-13.90%	0.1215	✓	1.28
2026-02-14	oos	1.645	1.6345	-0.64%	1.514	-7.96%	0.0424	✓	1.29
2026-02-13	oos	1.5985	1.5915	-0.44%	1.532	-4.16%	0.0260	✓	1.00
2026-02-12	oos	1.426	1.4332	+0.51%	1.476	+3.51%	0.0179	✓	1.00
2026-02-11	oos	1.418	1.4251	+0.50%	1.445	+1.90%	0.0230	✓	1.00
2026-02-10	oos	1.471	1.4735	+0.17%	1.591	+8.16%	0.0963	✓	1.00
2026-02-09	oos	1.547	1.5461	-0.06%	1.687	+9.05%	0.1051	✗	1.00
2026-02-08	oos	1.62	1.6188	-0.08%	1.68	+3.70%	0.0585	✗	1.00
2026-02-07	oos	1.63	1.6351	+0.31%	1.645	+0.92%	0.0017	✓	1.00
2026-02-06	oos	1.664	1.6689	+0.29%	1.5985	-3.94%	0.0184	✗	1.00
2026-02-05	oos	1.436	1.4775	+2.89%	1.426	-0.70%	0.0885	✗	1.00
2026-02-04	oos	1.576	1.5849	+0.56%	1.418	-10.03%	0.0259	✗	1.00
2026-02-03	oos	1.482	1.4904	+0.57%	1.471	-0.74%	0.0819	✓	1.00
2026-02-02	oos	1.593	1.5904	-0.16%	1.547	-2.89%	0.0876	✗	1.00
2026-02-01	oos	1.512	1.5198	+0.51%	1.62	+7.14%	0.1538	✓	1.00
2026-01-31	oos	1.564	1.5667	+0.17%	1.63	+4.22%	0.1669	✓	1.00
2026-01-30	oos	1.723	1.7082	-0.86%	1.664	-3.42%	0.1499	✗	1.00
2026-01-29	oos	1.612	1.6031	-0.55%	1.436	-10.92%	0.1870	✗	1.00
2026-01-28	oos	1.99	1.9571	-1.65%	1.576	-20.80%	0.0165	✓	1.00
2026-01-27	oos	1.939	1.9063	-1.68%	1.482	-23.57%	0.0881	✓	1.00
2026-01-26	oos	1.708	1.6896	-1.08%	1.593	-6.73%	0.0561	✗	1.00
2026-01-25	oos	1.5775	1.5676	-0.63%	1.512	-4.15%	0.0823	✗	1.00
2026-01-24	oos	1.806	1.7843	-1.20%	1.564	-13.40%	0.0072	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.