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LIGHTER

? · · gru_s2

token id
#154
symbol
LIGHTER
variant
–
chain
address
cohort
datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar
2026-01-15
predictions
813
+1d+7d+30d

Track record at +30d

assessed
241
of 271 predictions shown
direction hit
45.2%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.3315
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0434
actual +0.0920

History

as ofsplitanchor pxpred pxpred Δactual pxactual Δalpha errhitβ90d
2026-10-21oos3.4223.2375-5.39%–pending––1.27
2026-10-20oos3.3823.195-5.53%–pending––1.30
2026-10-19oos3.0952.9179-5.72%–pending––1.28
2026-10-18oos3.0742.8831-6.21%–pending––1.30
2026-10-17oos3.1162.9419-5.59%–pending––1.30
2026-10-16oos3.1763.0109-5.20%–pending––1.30
2026-10-15oos3.02552.8879-4.55%–pending––1.31
2026-10-14oos3.0852.9601-4.05%–pending––1.31
2026-10-13oos3.35053.181-5.06%–pending––1.30
2026-10-12oos3.37453.2321-4.22%–pending––1.32
2026-10-11oos3.8383.5778-6.78%–pending––1.32
2026-10-10oos3.6373.4217-5.92%–pending––1.38
2026-10-09oos3.6283.4258-5.57%–pending––1.38
2026-10-08oos3.6073.4369-4.72%–pending––1.39
2026-10-07oos3.5743.3566-6.08%–pending––1.44
2026-10-06oos3.8183.5126-8.00%–pending––1.42
2026-10-05oos4.0193.6616-8.89%–pending––1.43
2026-10-04oos3.6653.3961-7.34%–pending––1.48
2026-10-03oos3.5673.3337-6.54%–pending––1.48
2026-10-02oos3.5453.339-5.81%–pending––1.50
2026-10-01oos3.8063.5554-6.58%–pending––1.49
2026-09-30oos3.9483.6956-6.39%–pending––1.51
2026-09-29oos3.9263.6831-6.19%–pending––1.48
2026-09-28oos4.4454.1123-7.48%–pending––1.52
2026-09-27oos4.6554.2788-8.08%–pending––1.48
2026-09-26oos4.84454.4581-7.98%–pending––1.48
2026-09-25oos4.85454.499-7.32%–pending––1.48
2026-09-24oos5.0714.7355-6.62%–pending––1.48
2026-09-23oos5.3094.9919-5.97%–pending––1.48
2026-09-22oos5.06754.8697-3.90%–pending––1.55
2026-09-21oos4.74054.5818-3.35%3.422-27.81%0.2257✓1.44
2026-09-20oos4.7784.4863-6.10%3.382-29.22%0.3185✓1.66
2026-09-19oos4.81454.516-6.20%3.095-35.72%0.3901✓1.66
2026-09-18oos4.77254.4709-6.32%3.074-35.59%0.3975✓1.65
2026-09-17oos4.8164.4603-7.39%3.116-35.30%0.4757✓1.83
2026-09-16oos4.6054.2543-7.62%3.176-31.03%0.4158✓1.82
2026-09-15oos4.01953.7369-7.03%3.0255-24.73%0.3621✓1.82
2026-09-14oos4.38754.0573-7.53%3.085-29.69%0.3492✓1.77
2026-09-13oos4.11153.8146-7.22%3.3505-18.51%0.2673✓1.74
2026-09-12oos4.2173.9064-7.37%3.3745-19.98%0.2442✓1.74
2026-09-11oos4.3534.054-6.87%3.838-11.83%0.1939✓1.73
2026-09-10oos4.29054.0109-6.52%3.637-15.23%0.2371✓1.74
2026-09-09oos4.52754.2403-6.34%3.628-19.87%0.2474✓1.73
2026-09-08oos4.8264.5045-6.66%3.607-25.26%0.2935✓1.76
2026-09-07oos4.72254.4551-5.66%3.574-24.32%0.3128✓1.79
2026-09-06oos4.5164.2982-4.82%3.818-15.46%0.2282✓1.75
2026-09-05oos4.7544.5049-5.24%4.019-15.46%0.2395✓1.75
2026-09-04oos4.8234.565-5.35%3.665-24.01%0.3574✓1.68
2026-09-03oos4.4414.2399-4.53%3.567-19.68%0.2465✓1.76
2026-09-02oos3.7923.66-3.48%3.545-6.51%0.1687✓1.54
2026-09-01oos3.523.4211-2.81%3.806+8.13%0.0382✓1.58
2026-08-31oos3.5653.4501-3.22%3.948+10.74%0.0492✗1.39
2026-08-30oos3.5313.4194-3.16%3.926+11.19%0.0692✗0.93
2026-08-29oos3.5543.4563-2.75%4.445+25.07%0.1910✗0.94
2026-08-28oos3.4973.4161-2.31%4.655+33.11%0.2329✗0.94
2026-08-27oos3.7113.6621-1.32%4.8445+30.54%0.2339✗0.91
2026-08-26oos3.4533.3994-1.55%4.8545+40.59%0.3009✗0.89
2026-08-25oos3.2853.2463-1.18%5.071+54.37%0.3831✗0.88
2026-08-24oos3.4013.3859-0.44%5.309+56.10%0.3909✗0.89
2026-08-23oos3.5783.561-0.48%5.0675+41.63%0.2505✗0.99
2026-08-22oos3.1873.1714-0.49%4.7405+48.74%0.2884✗0.97
2026-08-21oos3.1283.1524+0.78%4.778+52.75%0.3808✓0.99
2026-08-20oos2.6692.6227-1.74%4.8145+80.39%0.5184✗0.83
2026-08-19oos2.6022.4896-4.32%4.7725+83.42%0.4941✗1.01
2026-08-18oos2.3592.281-3.31%4.816+104.15%0.5857✗0.97
2026-08-17oos2.3322.2565-3.24%4.605+97.47%0.5447✗1.01
2026-08-16oos2.2762.2191-2.50%4.0195+76.60%0.4046✗1.03
2026-08-15oos2.2662.2093-2.50%4.3875+93.62%0.4678✗1.01
2026-08-14oos2.2342.1774-2.54%4.1115+84.04%0.4337✗1.02
2026-08-13oos2.2712.2017-3.05%4.217+85.69%0.4514✗1.01
2026-08-12oos2.3352.2563-3.37%4.353+86.42%0.4499✗1.05
2026-08-11oos2.4182.3272-3.76%4.2905+77.44%0.4184✗1.04
2026-08-10oos2.3832.2888-3.95%4.5275+89.99%0.4689✗1.05
2026-08-09oos2.3042.2093-4.11%4.826+109.46%0.5724✗1.10
2026-08-08oos2.2822.1821-4.38%4.7225+106.95%0.5537✗1.10
2026-08-07oos2.29752.1885-4.74%4.516+96.56%0.4923✗1.09
2026-08-06oos2.3712.2573-4.80%4.754+100.51%0.5068✗1.10
2026-08-05oos2.1862.0704-5.29%4.823+120.63%0.6116✗1.12
2026-08-04oos2.0561.9569-4.82%4.441+116.00%0.5628✗1.08
2026-08-03oos2.00351.9241-3.96%3.792+89.27%0.4680✗1.07
2026-08-02oos2.0381.9699-3.34%3.52+72.72%0.3649✗1.09
2026-08-01oos2.0181.9661-2.57%3.565+76.66%0.3558✗1.07
2026-07-31oos2.0682.0086-2.87%3.531+70.74%0.3377✗1.07
2026-07-30oos2.2812.1703-4.85%3.554+55.81%0.3052✗0.99
2026-07-29oos2.1792.0848-4.32%3.497+60.49%0.3265✗0.97
2026-07-28oos2.3012.1929-4.70%3.711+61.28%0.3095✗0.95
2026-07-27oos2.1292.0308-4.61%3.453+62.19%0.3309✗0.93
2026-07-26oos2.1452.037-5.03%3.285+53.15%0.3096✗0.92
2026-07-25oos2.0641.962-4.94%3.401+64.78%0.3580✗0.93
2026-07-24oos2.03151.934-4.80%3.578+76.13%0.4392✗0.91
2026-07-23oos2.15852.0449-5.26%3.187+47.65%0.2944✗0.88
2026-07-22oos2.3052.1787-5.48%3.128+35.70%0.2180✗0.85
2026-07-21oos2.3442.2118-5.64%2.669+13.87%0.1091✗0.85
2026-07-20oos2.1792.0607-5.43%2.602+19.41%0.1866✗0.77
2026-07-19oos2.2092.0898-5.40%2.359+6.79%0.1212✗0.77
2026-07-18oos2.2572.1319-5.54%2.332+3.32%0.0934✗0.75
2026-07-17oos2.2882.162-5.51%2.276-0.52%0.0654✗0.84
2026-07-16oos2.2852.1554-5.67%2.266-0.83%0.0604✗0.87
2026-07-15oos2.4142.2604-6.36%2.234-7.46%0.0109✓0.83
2026-07-14oos2.5952.4217-6.68%2.271-12.49%0.0443✓0.82
2026-07-13oos2.3052.168-5.94%2.335+1.30%0.0612✓0.71
2026-07-12oos2.632.4591-6.50%2.418-8.06%0.0148✓0.63
2026-07-11oos2.5772.415-6.29%2.383-7.53%0.0147✓0.63
2026-07-10oos2.6882.524-6.10%2.304-14.29%0.0991✓0.70
2026-07-09oos2.3962.2562-5.83%2.282-4.76%0.0065✓0.66
2026-07-08oos2.32852.1966-5.66%2.2975-1.33%0.0154✓0.71
2026-07-07oos2.4592.3331-5.12%2.371-3.58%0.0060✓0.68
2026-07-06oos2.5782.4531-4.84%2.186-15.21%0.1217✓0.69
2026-07-05oos2.4622.3405-4.94%2.056-16.49%0.1346✓0.69
2026-07-04oos2.1992.0922-4.86%2.0035-8.89%0.0473✓0.67
2026-07-03oos2.1182.0126-4.98%2.038-3.78%0.0023✓0.66
2026-07-02oos2.0671.9562-5.36%2.018-2.37%0.0177✓0.65
2026-07-01oos2.0741.9553-5.72%2.068-0.29%0.0245✓0.68
2026-06-30oos1.851.7416-5.86%2.281+23.30%0.2119✗0.58
2026-06-29oos1.8611.747-6.12%2.179+17.09%0.1863✗0.58
2026-06-28oos1.7311.6296-5.86%2.301+32.93%0.3030✗0.59
2026-06-27oos1.721.619-5.87%2.129+23.78%0.2387✗0.58
2026-06-26oos1.8251.7115-6.22%2.145+17.53%0.1761✗0.58
2026-06-25oos1.6091.5064-6.38%2.064+28.28%0.2734✗0.56
2026-06-24oos1.6971.5777-7.03%2.0315+19.71%0.2254✗0.55
2026-06-23oos1.5041.3965-7.15%2.1585+43.52%0.4083✗0.72
2026-06-22oos1.6111.4986-6.98%2.305+43.08%0.4083✗0.68
2026-06-21oos1.5671.4595-6.86%2.344+49.59%0.4401✗0.67
2026-06-20oos1.5581.4546-6.64%2.179+39.86%0.3943✗0.64
2026-06-19oos1.5441.4458-6.36%2.209+43.07%0.4109✗0.69
2026-06-18oos1.6131.5139-6.14%2.257+39.93%0.3781✗0.71
2026-06-17oos1.721.6168-6.00%2.288+33.02%0.3527✗0.64
2026-06-16oos1.7341.633-5.82%2.285+31.78%0.3543✗0.64
2026-06-15oos1.6881.5947-5.53%2.414+43.01%0.4311✗0.69
2026-06-14oos1.6841.5888-5.65%2.595+54.10%0.4979✗0.66
2026-06-13oos1.6291.5353-5.75%2.305+41.50%0.4299✗0.69
2026-06-12oos1.5371.4496-5.69%2.63+71.11%0.5936✗0.65
2026-06-11oos1.5581.4688-5.73%2.577+65.40%0.5601✗0.65
2026-06-10oos1.3921.3131-5.67%2.688+93.10%0.6926✗0.56
2026-06-09oos1.5841.4918-5.82%2.396+51.26%0.4605✗0.56
2026-06-08oos1.4671.3768-6.15%2.3285+58.73%0.5334✗0.61
2026-06-07oos1.4331.3426-6.31%2.459+71.60%0.6049✗0.62
2026-06-06oos1.4251.3411-5.88%2.578+80.91%0.6223✗0.62
2026-06-05oos1.5031.4151-5.85%2.462+63.81%0.5267✗0.66
2026-06-04oos1.4661.3806-5.83%2.199+50.00%0.4737✗0.73
2026-06-03oos1.7811.6766-5.86%2.118+18.92%0.2516✗0.75
2026-06-02oos1.6061.5243-5.08%2.067+28.70%0.3822✗0.96
2026-06-01oos1.3361.2712-4.85%2.074+55.24%0.7356✗1.42
2026-05-31oos1.3771.315-4.51%1.85+34.35%0.6709✗1.44
2026-05-30oos1.36951.3097-4.36%1.861+35.89%0.6287✗1.36
2026-05-29oos1.2621.2043-4.57%1.731+37.16%0.6453✗1.35
2026-05-28oos1.1741.1214-4.48%1.72+46.51%0.7036✗1.35
2026-05-27oos1.1281.0816-4.11%1.825+61.79%0.8182✗1.38
2026-05-26oos1.1841.1316-4.43%1.609+35.90%0.6797✗1.37
2026-05-25oos1.3841.3038-5.80%1.697+22.62%0.5520✗1.22
2026-05-24oos1.2951.2222-5.62%1.504+16.14%0.4558✗1.21
2026-05-23oos1.22651.161-5.34%1.611+31.35%0.5423✗1.19
2026-05-22oos1.1861.1319-4.56%1.567+32.12%0.5343✗1.18
2026-05-21oos1.4311.3432-6.14%1.558+8.87%0.3518✗1.08
2026-05-20oos1.2781.1965-6.37%1.544+20.81%0.4719✗1.09
2026-05-19oos1.1341.0611-6.43%1.613+42.24%0.6324✗1.07
2026-05-18oos0.9540.894693-6.22%1.72+80.29%0.8516✗1.12
2026-05-17oos0.86350.818015-5.27%1.734+100.81%0.9416✗1.15
2026-05-16oos0.87750.834381-4.91%1.688+92.36%0.8938✗1.15
2026-05-15oos0.8570.821264-4.17%1.684+96.50%0.9308✗1.15
2026-05-14oos0.9150.886689-3.09%1.629+78.03%0.8698✗1.14
2026-05-13oos0.8980.866618-3.49%1.537+71.16%0.8398✗1.20
2026-05-12oos0.92650.896336-3.26%1.558+68.16%0.8344✗1.19
2026-05-11oos0.99950.953379-4.61%1.392+39.27%0.7127✗1.17
2026-05-10oos1.0590.997693-5.79%1.584+49.58%0.7994✗1.17
2026-05-09oos1.0530.991401-5.85%1.467+39.32%0.6827✗1.18
2026-05-08oos1.0771.0109-6.14%1.433+33.05%0.6277✗1.18
2026-05-07oos0.9890.933668-5.59%1.425+44.08%0.7440✗1.17
2026-05-06oos0.9540.898702-5.80%1.503+57.55%0.8703✗1.23
2026-05-05oos0.9660.905534-6.26%1.466+51.76%0.7293✗1.04
2026-05-04oos0.9060.849493-6.24%1.781+96.58%0.9579✗0.99
2026-05-03oos0.9230.857603-7.09%1.606+74.00%0.7924✗1.00
2026-05-02oos0.9080.84232-7.23%1.336+47.14%0.5611✗1.02
2026-05-01oos0.9030.836967-7.31%1.377+52.49%0.5603✗1.02
2026-04-30oos0.88450.825983-6.62%1.3695+54.83%0.5405✗1.03
2026-04-29oos0.94750.884628-6.64%1.262+33.19%0.3885✗1.04
2026-04-28oos0.8970.841613-6.17%1.174+30.88%0.3751✗1.13
2026-04-27oos0.86350.818443-5.22%1.128+30.63%0.3665✗1.14
2026-04-26oos0.9130.871486-4.55%1.184+29.68%0.3487✗1.15
2026-04-25oos0.930.883585-4.99%1.384+48.82%0.4548✗1.17
2026-04-24oos0.94750.904994-4.49%1.295+36.68%0.3659✗1.20
2026-04-23oos0.92450.899353-2.72%1.2265+32.67%0.3355✗1.20
2026-04-22oos0.88050.872617-0.90%1.186+34.70%0.3499✗1.20
2026-04-21oos0.89750.880161-1.93%1.431+59.44%0.4672✗1.21
2026-04-20oos0.90050.878449-2.45%1.278+41.92%0.3493✗1.22
2026-04-19oos0.890.861134-3.24%1.134+27.42%0.2284✗1.20
2026-04-18oos0.9760.935814-4.12%0.954-2.25%0.0004✓1.19
2026-04-17oos1.04951.0055-4.19%0.8635-17.72%0.1571✓1.19
2026-04-16oos1.0430.984574-5.60%0.8775-15.87%0.1610✓1.20
2026-04-15oos1.04250.980147-5.98%0.857-17.79%0.1998✓1.19
2026-04-14oos1.02350.965675-5.65%0.915-10.60%0.1601✓1.19
2026-04-13oos1.14351.0827-5.32%0.898-21.47%0.2622✓1.19
2026-04-12oos1.0941.0498-4.04%0.9265-15.31%0.2797✓1.20
2026-04-11oos1.2061.1499-4.65%0.9995-17.12%0.2723✓1.18
2026-04-10oos1.1361.089-4.13%1.059-6.78%0.1680✓1.18
2026-04-09oos1.0160.986602-2.89%1.053+3.64%0.0695✓1.16
2026-04-08oos0.9990.976391-2.26%1.077+7.81%0.0411✓1.16
2026-04-07oos1.0731.0379-3.27%0.989-7.83%0.1710✓1.15
2026-04-06oos1.02451.0032-2.08%0.954-6.88%0.2434✓1.15
2026-04-05oos1.00950.989781-1.95%0.966-4.31%0.2074✓1.15
2026-04-04oos0.9860.982125-0.39%0.906-8.11%0.2777✓1.15
2026-04-03oos0.9890.987858-0.12%0.923-6.67%0.2519✓1.15
2026-04-02oos0.9490.949336+0.04%0.908-4.32%0.2309✗1.15
2026-04-01oos0.8890.88289-0.69%0.903+1.57%0.1387✓1.16
2026-03-31oos0.8710.863903-0.81%0.8845+1.55%0.1066✓1.16
2026-03-30oos0.80750.807093-0.05%0.9475+17.34%0.0154✗1.14
2026-03-29oos0.82650.826371-0.02%0.897+8.53%0.0859✓1.15
2026-03-28oos0.85750.852247-0.61%0.8635+0.70%0.1641✓1.15
2026-03-27oos0.88250.874028-0.96%0.913+3.46%0.1526✓1.15
2026-03-26oos0.9120.893366-2.04%0.93+1.97%0.1004✓1.16
2026-03-25oos0.99450.965765-2.89%0.9475-4.73%0.1136✓1.14
2026-03-24oos1.00850.974709-3.35%0.9245-8.33%0.1722✓1.15
2026-03-23oos0.9540.929598-2.56%0.8805-7.70%0.1671✓1.15
2026-03-22oos0.94050.924195-1.73%0.8975-4.57%0.1669✓1.17
2026-03-21oos1.0521.0136-3.65%0.9005-14.40%0.2291✓1.15
2026-03-20oos1.0641.0273-3.45%0.89-16.35%0.1968✓1.16
2026-03-19oos1.19451.1469-3.99%0.976-18.29%0.2555✓1.18
2026-03-18oos1.2131.1689-3.63%1.0495-13.48%0.2009✓1.18
2026-03-17oos1.2961.2522-3.38%1.043-19.52%0.2021✓1.17
2026-03-16oos1.16451.1312-2.86%1.0425-10.48%0.0809✓1.19
2026-03-15oos1.0871.0669-1.85%1.0235-5.84%0.0630✓1.17
2026-03-14oos1.1071.0862-1.88%1.1435+3.30%0.0008✓1.18
2026-03-13oos1.09951.0817-1.62%1.094-0.50%0.0145✓1.18
2026-03-12oos1.15251.1316-1.81%1.206+4.64%0.0213✗1.19
2026-03-11oos1.07151.0654-0.57%1.136+6.02%0.0182✗1.18
2026-03-10oos1.0551.0554+0.04%1.016-3.70%0.0686✗1.18
2026-03-09oos1.0211.0388+1.74%0.999-2.15%0.0837✗1.17
2026-03-08oos1.0191.0431+2.36%1.073+5.30%0.0749✗1.20
2026-03-07oos1.131.1222-0.69%1.0245-9.34%0.1188✓1.18
2026-03-06oos1.141.1213-1.64%1.0095-11.45%0.1205✓1.18
2026-03-05oos1.20851.1765-2.65%0.986-18.41%0.1152✓1.18
2026-03-04oos1.3731.3357-2.72%0.989-27.97%0.2060✓1.15
2026-03-03oos1.3011.2588-3.24%0.949-27.06%0.2576✓1.17
2026-03-02oos1.3571.3162-3.01%0.889-34.49%0.3801✓1.17
2026-03-01oos1.3591.304-4.05%0.871-35.91%0.4482✓1.22
2026-02-28oos1.381.3347-3.28%0.8075-41.49%0.4983✓1.22
2026-02-27oos1.3581.3074-3.72%0.8265-39.14%0.4604✓1.22
2026-02-26oos1.42951.389-2.83%0.8575-40.01%0.4610✓1.22
2026-02-25oos1.4561.4203-2.45%0.8825-39.39%0.4461✓1.22
2026-02-24oos1.43051.3689-4.31%0.912-36.25%0.4977✓1.29
2026-02-23oos1.3861.3306-4.00%0.9945-28.25%0.4181✓1.29
2026-02-22oos1.44651.4031-3.00%1.0085-30.28%0.3851✓1.30
2026-02-21oos1.5141.4706-2.86%0.954-36.99%0.4876✓1.30
2026-02-20oos1.5321.4894-2.78%0.9405-38.61%0.4570✓1.31
2026-02-19oos1.4761.4303-3.10%1.052-28.73%0.3443✓1.30
2026-02-18oos1.4451.3972-3.31%1.064-26.37%0.3498✓1.30
2026-02-17oos1.5911.5416-3.11%1.1945-24.92%0.3011✓1.29
2026-02-16oos1.6871.6352-3.07%1.213-28.10%0.3424✓1.28
2026-02-15oos1.681.6258-3.23%1.296-22.86%0.3193✓1.28
2026-02-14oos1.6451.5885-3.44%1.1645-29.21%0.4012✓1.29
2026-02-13oos1.59851.5382-3.77%1.087-32.00%0.4040✓1.00
2026-02-12oos1.4261.3748-3.59%1.107-22.37%0.2898✓1.00
2026-02-11oos1.4181.3672-3.58%1.0995-22.46%0.2747✓1.00
2026-02-10oos1.4711.4147-3.83%1.1525-21.65%0.2298✓1.00
2026-02-09oos1.5471.483-4.14%1.0715-30.74%0.3265✓1.00
2026-02-08oos1.621.5493-4.37%1.055-34.88%0.3797✓1.00
2026-02-07oos1.631.5589-4.36%1.021-37.36%0.4114✓1.00
2026-02-06oos1.6641.5819-4.93%1.019-38.76%0.3730✓1.00
2026-02-05oos1.4361.4403+0.30%1.13-21.31%0.3114✗1.00
2026-02-04oos1.5761.4808-6.04%1.14-27.66%0.1922✓1.00
2026-02-03oos1.4821.3997-5.55%1.2085-18.45%0.0817✓1.00
2026-02-02oos1.5931.5252-4.26%1.373-13.81%0.0260✓1.00
2026-02-01oos1.5121.4382-4.88%1.301-13.96%0.0177✓1.00
2026-01-31oos1.5641.5005-4.06%1.357-13.24%0.0328✓1.00
2026-01-30oos1.7231.6724-2.94%1.359-21.13%0.0385✗1.00
2026-01-29oos1.6121.5649-2.92%1.38-14.39%0.1069✗1.00
2026-01-28oos1.991.9141-3.81%1.358-31.76%0.0403✓1.00
2026-01-27oos1.9391.8599-4.08%1.4295-26.28%0.0148✓1.00
2026-01-26oos1.7081.6428-3.82%1.456-14.75%0.1401✗1.00
2026-01-25oos1.57751.5201-3.64%1.4305-9.32%0.2401✗1.00
2026-01-24oos1.8061.7248-4.49%1.386-23.26%0.1022✗1.00