LIGHTER

? · · gru_s2

token id: #154
symbol: LIGHTER
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-01-15
predictions: 813

Track record at +1d

assessed

270

of 271 predictions shown

direction hit

51.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0449

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0040

actual +0.0027

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	3.422	3.4001	-0.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.27
2026-10-20	oos	3.382	3.3617	-0.60%	3.422	+1.18%	0.0216	✗	1.30
2026-10-19	oos	3.095	3.0819	-0.42%	3.382	+9.27%	0.0759	✗	1.28
2026-10-18	oos	3.074	3.0609	-0.43%	3.095	+0.68%	0.0138	✗	1.30
2026-10-17	oos	3.116	3.1029	-0.42%	3.074	-1.35%	0.0193	✓	1.30
2026-10-16	oos	3.176	3.164	-0.38%	3.116	-1.89%	0.0134	✓	1.30
2026-10-15	oos	3.0255	3.0185	-0.23%	3.176	+4.97%	0.0608	✗	1.31
2026-10-14	oos	3.085	3.0796	-0.18%	3.0255	-1.93%	0.0267	✓	1.31
2026-10-13	oos	3.3505	3.338	-0.37%	3.085	-7.92%	0.0546	✓	1.30
2026-10-12	oos	3.3745	3.3659	-0.26%	3.3505	-0.71%	0.0263	✓	1.32
2026-10-11	oos	3.838	3.8126	-0.66%	3.3745	-12.08%	0.0913	✓	1.32
2026-10-10	oos	3.637	3.6222	-0.41%	3.838	+5.53%	0.0451	✗	1.38
2026-10-09	oos	3.628	3.6165	-0.32%	3.637	+0.25%	0.0004	✓	1.38
2026-10-08	oos	3.607	3.5994	-0.21%	3.628	+0.58%	0.0065	✓	1.39
2026-10-07	oos	3.574	3.5565	-0.49%	3.607	+0.92%	0.0418	✗	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	3.818	3.7574	-1.59%	3.574	-6.39%	0.0119	✓	1.42
2026-10-05	oos	4.019	3.9394	-1.98%	3.818	-5.00%	0.0278	✓	1.43
2026-10-04	oos	3.665	3.6208	-1.21%	4.019	+9.66%	0.1174	✗	1.48
2026-10-03	oos	3.567	3.5423	-0.69%	3.665	+2.75%	0.0034	✓	1.48
2026-10-02	oos	3.545	3.5311	-0.39%	3.567	+0.62%	0.0059	✗	1.50
2026-10-01	oos	3.806	3.7886	-0.46%	3.545	-6.86%	0.0604	✓	1.49
2026-09-30	oos	3.948	3.9312	-0.43%	3.806	-3.60%	0.0555	✓	1.51
2026-09-29	oos	3.926	3.9115	-0.37%	3.948	+0.56%	0.0108	✗	1.48
2026-09-28	oos	4.445	4.4222	-0.51%	3.926	-11.68%	0.1223	✓	1.52
2026-09-27	oos	4.655	4.6309	-0.52%	4.445	-4.51%	0.0233	✓	1.48
2026-09-26	oos	4.8445	4.821	-0.49%	4.655	-3.91%	0.0358	✓	1.48
2026-09-25	oos	4.8545	4.8343	-0.42%	4.8445	-0.21%	0.0036	✓	1.48
2026-09-24	oos	5.071	5.0538	-0.34%	4.8545	-4.27%	0.0351	✓	1.48
2026-09-23	oos	5.309	5.2921	-0.32%	5.071	-4.48%	0.0428	✓	1.48
2026-09-22	oos	5.0675	5.0585	-0.18%	5.309	+4.77%	0.0813	✗	1.55
2026-09-21	oos	4.7405	4.7325	-0.17%	5.0675	+6.90%	0.0750	✗	1.44
2026-09-20	oos	4.778	4.7498	-0.59%	4.7405	-0.78%	0.1095	✓	1.66
2026-09-19	oos	4.8145	4.7831	-0.65%	4.778	-0.76%	0.0005	✓	1.66
2026-09-18	oos	4.7725	4.7385	-0.71%	4.8145	+0.88%	0.0086	✗	1.65
2026-09-17	oos	4.816	4.7774	-0.80%	4.7725	-0.90%	0.1066	✓	1.83
2026-09-16	oos	4.605	4.5702	-0.76%	4.816	+4.58%	0.0475	✗	1.82
2026-09-15	oos	4.0195	4.0078	-0.29%	4.605	+14.57%	0.1255	✗	1.82
2026-09-14	oos	4.3875	4.3609	-0.61%	4.0195	-8.39%	0.0218	✓	1.77
2026-09-13	oos	4.1115	4.0978	-0.33%	4.3875	+6.71%	0.0373	✗	1.74
2026-09-12	oos	4.217	4.2017	-0.36%	4.1115	-2.50%	0.0113	✓	1.74
2026-09-11	oos	4.353	4.3387	-0.33%	4.217	-3.12%	0.0297	✓	1.73
2026-09-10	oos	4.2905	4.2793	-0.26%	4.353	+1.46%	0.0019	✓	1.74
2026-09-09	oos	4.5275	4.5115	-0.35%	4.2905	-5.23%	0.0113	✓	1.73
2026-09-08	oos	4.826	4.8045	-0.45%	4.5275	-6.19%	0.0557	✓	1.76
2026-09-07	oos	4.7225	4.7052	-0.37%	4.826	+2.19%	0.0400	✗	1.79
2026-09-06	oos	4.516	4.5017	-0.32%	4.7225	+4.57%	0.0753	✗	1.75
2026-09-05	oos	4.754	4.7326	-0.45%	4.516	-5.01%	0.0580	✓	1.75
2026-09-04	oos	4.823	4.7941	-0.60%	4.754	-1.43%	0.0117	✓	1.68
2026-09-03	oos	4.441	4.4204	-0.46%	4.823	+8.60%	0.1219	✗	1.76
2026-09-02	oos	3.792	3.7797	-0.32%	4.441	+17.11%	0.0845	✗	1.54
2026-09-01	oos	3.52	3.5128	-0.20%	3.792	+7.73%	0.0783	✗	1.58
2026-08-31	oos	3.565	3.5569	-0.23%	3.52	-1.26%	0.0103	✗	1.39
2026-08-30	oos	3.531	3.5226	-0.24%	3.565	+0.96%	0.0013	✓	0.93
2026-08-29	oos	3.554	3.5466	-0.21%	3.531	-0.65%	0.0024	✗	0.94
2026-08-28	oos	3.497	3.4902	-0.19%	3.554	+1.63%	0.0134	✗	0.94
2026-08-27	oos	3.711	3.7044	-0.18%	3.497	-5.77%	0.0295	✓	0.91
2026-08-26	oos	3.453	3.4469	-0.18%	3.711	+7.47%	0.0598	✗	0.89
2026-08-25	oos	3.285	3.2792	-0.18%	3.453	+5.11%	0.0461	✗	0.88
2026-08-24	oos	3.401	3.3893	-0.34%	3.285	-3.41%	0.0261	✓	0.89
2026-08-23	oos	3.578	3.5575	-0.57%	3.401	-4.95%	0.0608	✓	0.99
2026-08-22	oos	3.187	3.1704	-0.52%	3.578	+12.27%	0.1124	✗	0.97
2026-08-21	oos	3.128	3.1087	-0.62%	3.187	+1.89%	0.0410	✗	0.99
2026-08-20	oos	2.669	2.659	-0.38%	3.128	+17.20%	0.1039	✗	0.83
2026-08-19	oos	2.602	2.5784	-0.91%	2.669	+2.57%	0.0184	✓	1.01
2026-08-18	oos	2.359	2.3472	-0.50%	2.602	+10.30%	0.0358	✗	0.97
2026-08-17	oos	2.332	2.3219	-0.43%	2.359	+1.16%	0.0126	✗	1.01
2026-08-16	oos	2.276	2.2707	-0.23%	2.332	+2.46%	0.0002	✓	1.03
2026-08-15	oos	2.266	2.2611	-0.22%	2.276	+0.44%	0.0095	✗	1.01
2026-08-14	oos	2.234	2.2295	-0.20%	2.266	+1.43%	0.0155	✗	1.02
2026-08-13	oos	2.271	2.2646	-0.28%	2.234	-1.63%	0.0065	✓	1.01
2026-08-12	oos	2.335	2.3277	-0.31%	2.271	-2.74%	0.0249	✓	1.05
2026-08-11	oos	2.418	2.4095	-0.35%	2.335	-3.43%	0.0295	✓	1.04
2026-08-10	oos	2.383	2.3743	-0.37%	2.418	+1.47%	0.0245	✗	1.05
2026-08-09	oos	2.304	2.2944	-0.42%	2.383	+3.43%	0.0538	✗	1.10
2026-08-08	oos	2.282	2.2714	-0.47%	2.304	+0.96%	0.0153	✗	1.10
2026-08-07	oos	2.2975	2.2849	-0.55%	2.282	-0.67%	0.0016	✓	1.09
2026-08-06	oos	2.371	2.3579	-0.55%	2.2975	-3.10%	0.0366	✓	1.10
2026-08-05	oos	2.186	2.1713	-0.67%	2.371	+8.46%	0.0938	✗	1.12
2026-08-04	oos	2.056	2.0456	-0.51%	2.186	+6.32%	0.0571	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	2.0035	1.9971	-0.32%	2.056	+2.62%	0.0193	✗	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	2.038	2.0319	-0.30%	2.0035	-1.69%	0.0135	✓	1.09
2026-08-01	oos	2.018	2.015	-0.15%	2.038	+0.99%	0.0011	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	2.068	2.0628	-0.25%	2.018	-2.42%	0.0209	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	2.281	2.2692	-0.52%	2.068	-9.34%	0.0634	✓	0.99
2026-07-29	oos	2.179	2.1701	-0.41%	2.281	+4.68%	0.0374	✗	0.97
2026-07-28	oos	2.301	2.2902	-0.47%	2.179	-5.30%	0.0505	✓	0.95
2026-07-27	oos	2.129	2.1202	-0.41%	2.301	+8.08%	0.0796	✗	0.93
2026-07-26	oos	2.145	2.1341	-0.51%	2.129	-0.75%	0.0210	✗	0.92
2026-07-25	oos	2.064	2.0547	-0.45%	2.145	+3.92%	0.0279	✗	0.93
2026-07-24	oos	2.0315	2.023	-0.42%	2.064	+1.60%	0.0171	✗	0.91
2026-07-23	oos	2.1585	2.1459	-0.58%	2.0315	-5.88%	0.0416	✓	0.88
2026-07-22	oos	2.305	2.2907	-0.62%	2.1585	-6.36%	0.0461	✓	0.85
2026-07-21	oos	2.344	2.3315	-0.53%	2.305	-1.66%	0.0060	✓	0.85
2026-07-20	oos	2.179	2.1695	-0.44%	2.344	+7.57%	0.0622	✗	0.77
2026-07-19	oos	2.209	2.1998	-0.42%	2.179	-1.36%	0.0158	✓	0.77
2026-07-18	oos	2.257	2.2479	-0.40%	2.209	-2.13%	0.0161	✓	0.75
2026-07-17	oos	2.288	2.2784	-0.42%	2.257	-1.35%	0.0212	✓	0.84
2026-07-16	oos	2.285	2.2751	-0.43%	2.288	+0.13%	0.0040	✓	0.87
2026-07-15	oos	2.414	2.402	-0.50%	2.285	-5.34%	0.0377	✓	0.83
2026-07-14	oos	2.595	2.5809	-0.54%	2.414	-6.97%	0.0634	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	2.305	2.294	-0.48%	2.595	+12.58%	0.0928	✗	0.71
2026-07-12	oos	2.63	2.6154	-0.56%	2.305	-12.36%	0.1117	✓	0.63
2026-07-11	oos	2.577	2.5633	-0.53%	2.63	+2.06%	0.0260	✗	0.63
2026-07-10	oos	2.688	2.6727	-0.57%	2.577	-4.13%	0.0325	✓	0.70
2026-07-09	oos	2.396	2.3849	-0.46%	2.688	+12.19%	0.1097	✗	0.66
2026-07-08	oos	2.3285	2.3182	-0.44%	2.396	+2.90%	0.0224	✗	0.71
2026-07-07	oos	2.459	2.4481	-0.44%	2.3285	-5.31%	0.0383	✓	0.68
2026-07-06	oos	2.578	2.5642	-0.54%	2.459	-4.62%	0.0345	✓	0.69
2026-07-05	oos	2.462	2.4472	-0.60%	2.578	+4.71%	0.0476	✗	0.69
2026-07-04	oos	2.199	2.1872	-0.53%	2.462	+11.96%	0.1131	✗	0.67
2026-07-03	oos	2.118	2.1057	-0.58%	2.199	+3.82%	0.0374	✗	0.66
2026-07-02	oos	2.067	2.0523	-0.71%	2.118	+2.47%	0.0206	✗	0.65
2026-07-01	oos	2.074	2.0513	-1.09%	2.067	-0.34%	0.0094	✓	0.68
2026-06-30	oos	1.85	1.8347	-0.82%	2.074	+12.11%	0.1086	✗	0.58
2026-06-29	oos	1.861	1.8472	-0.74%	1.85	-0.59%	0.0174	✗	0.58
2026-06-28	oos	1.731	1.7243	-0.39%	1.861	+7.51%	0.0695	✗	0.59
2026-06-27	oos	1.72	1.7141	-0.34%	1.731	+0.64%	0.0143	✗	0.58
2026-06-26	oos	1.825	1.8165	-0.47%	1.72	-5.75%	0.0539	✓	0.58
2026-06-25	oos	1.609	1.6041	-0.30%	1.825	+13.42%	0.1262	✗	0.56
2026-06-24	oos	1.697	1.6885	-0.50%	1.609	-5.19%	0.0365	✓	0.55
2026-06-23	oos	1.504	1.4981	-0.39%	1.697	+12.83%	0.1440	✗	0.72
2026-06-22	oos	1.611	1.6038	-0.45%	1.504	-6.64%	0.0502	✓	0.68
2026-06-21	oos	1.567	1.5605	-0.41%	1.611	+2.81%	0.0243	✗	0.67
2026-06-20	oos	1.558	1.5519	-0.39%	1.567	+0.58%	0.0197	✗	0.64
2026-06-19	oos	1.544	1.5386	-0.35%	1.558	+0.91%	0.0045	✗	0.69
2026-06-18	oos	1.613	1.6072	-0.36%	1.544	-4.28%	0.0468	✓	0.71
2026-06-17	oos	1.72	1.7126	-0.43%	1.613	-6.22%	0.0442	✓	0.64
2026-06-16	oos	1.734	1.726	-0.46%	1.72	-0.81%	0.0081	✗	0.64
2026-06-15	oos	1.688	1.6804	-0.45%	1.734	+2.73%	0.0383	✗	0.69
2026-06-14	oos	1.684	1.6758	-0.49%	1.688	+0.24%	0.0015	✓	0.66
2026-06-13	oos	1.629	1.6213	-0.47%	1.684	+3.38%	0.0244	✗	0.69
2026-06-12	oos	1.537	1.5307	-0.41%	1.629	+5.99%	0.0532	✗	0.65
2026-06-11	oos	1.558	1.551	-0.45%	1.537	-1.35%	0.0088	✓	0.65
2026-06-10	oos	1.392	1.3886	-0.24%	1.558	+11.93%	0.0963	✗	0.56
2026-06-09	oos	1.584	1.5789	-0.32%	1.392	-12.12%	0.1238	✓	0.56
2026-06-08	oos	1.467	1.4614	-0.38%	1.584	+7.98%	0.0939	✗	0.61
2026-06-07	oos	1.433	1.4276	-0.37%	1.467	+2.37%	0.0295	✗	0.62
2026-06-06	oos	1.425	1.4227	-0.16%	1.433	+0.56%	0.0172	✓	0.62
2026-06-05	oos	1.503	1.4993	-0.24%	1.425	-5.19%	0.0489	✓	0.66
2026-06-04	oos	1.466	1.4618	-0.29%	1.503	+2.52%	0.0600	✗	0.73
2026-06-03	oos	1.781	1.7681	-0.72%	1.466	-17.69%	0.1847	✓	0.75
2026-06-02	oos	1.606	1.5941	-0.74%	1.781	+10.90%	0.1494	✗	0.96
2026-06-01	oos	1.336	1.3314	-0.34%	1.606	+20.21%	0.2833	✗	1.42
2026-05-31	oos	1.377	1.3712	-0.42%	1.336	-2.98%	0.0189	✗	1.44
2026-05-30	oos	1.3695	1.363	-0.47%	1.377	+0.55%	0.0138	✗	1.36
2026-05-29	oos	1.262	1.2571	-0.39%	1.3695	+8.52%	0.0783	✗	1.35
2026-05-28	oos	1.174	1.1708	-0.28%	1.262	+7.50%	0.0777	✗	1.35
2026-05-27	oos	1.128	1.1255	-0.22%	1.174	+4.08%	0.0572	✗	1.38
2026-05-26	oos	1.184	1.1804	-0.30%	1.128	-4.73%	0.0178	✓	1.37
2026-05-25	oos	1.384	1.3754	-0.62%	1.184	-14.45%	0.1271	✓	1.22
2026-05-24	oos	1.295	1.2881	-0.53%	1.384	+6.87%	0.0675	✗	1.21
2026-05-23	oos	1.2265	1.2213	-0.43%	1.295	+5.58%	0.0536	✗	1.19
2026-05-22	oos	1.186	1.1816	-0.37%	1.2265	+3.41%	0.0185	✗	1.18
2026-05-21	oos	1.431	1.4169	-0.99%	1.186	-17.12%	0.1482	✓	1.08
2026-05-20	oos	1.278	1.2637	-1.12%	1.431	+11.97%	0.1233	✗	1.09
2026-05-19	oos	1.134	1.1213	-1.12%	1.278	+12.70%	0.1209	✗	1.07
2026-05-18	oos	0.954	0.946254	-0.81%	1.134	+18.87%	0.1836	✗	1.12
2026-05-17	oos	0.8635	0.859824	-0.43%	0.954	+10.48%	0.1109	✗	1.15
2026-05-16	oos	0.8775	0.870224	-0.83%	0.8635	-1.60%	0.0026	✓	1.15
2026-05-15	oos	0.857	0.847294	-1.13%	0.8775	+2.39%	0.0490	✗	1.15
2026-05-14	oos	0.915	0.903537	-1.25%	0.857	-6.34%	0.0242	✓	1.14
2026-05-13	oos	0.898	0.891213	-0.76%	0.915	+1.89%	0.0006	✓	1.20
2026-05-12	oos	0.9265	0.919123	-0.80%	0.898	-3.08%	0.0054	✓	1.19
2026-05-11	oos	0.9995	0.994628	-0.49%	0.9265	-7.30%	0.0530	✓	1.17
2026-05-10	oos	1.059	1.0531	-0.56%	0.9995	-5.62%	0.0455	✓	1.17
2026-05-09	oos	1.053	1.0455	-0.71%	1.059	+0.57%	0.0096	✓	1.18
2026-05-08	oos	1.077	1.0681	-0.83%	1.053	-2.23%	0.0211	✓	1.18
2026-05-07	oos	0.989	0.981728	-0.74%	1.077	+8.90%	0.0899	✗	1.17
2026-05-06	oos	0.954	0.948257	-0.60%	0.989	+3.67%	0.0640	✗	1.23
2026-05-05	oos	0.966	0.958491	-0.78%	0.954	-1.24%	0.0115	✓	1.04
2026-05-04	oos	0.906	0.900258	-0.63%	0.966	+6.62%	0.0575	✗	0.99
2026-05-03	oos	0.923	0.916077	-0.75%	0.906	-1.84%	0.0275	✓	1.00
2026-05-02	oos	0.908	0.901165	-0.75%	0.923	+1.65%	0.0255	✗	1.02
2026-05-01	oos	0.903	0.897616	-0.60%	0.908	+0.55%	0.0057	✓	1.02
2026-04-30	oos	0.8845	0.880638	-0.44%	0.903	+2.09%	0.0007	✓	1.03
2026-04-29	oos	0.9475	0.942801	-0.50%	0.8845	-6.65%	0.0714	✓	1.04
2026-04-28	oos	0.897	0.893101	-0.43%	0.9475	+5.63%	0.0675	✗	1.13
2026-04-27	oos	0.8635	0.861577	-0.22%	0.897	+3.88%	0.0558	✗	1.14
2026-04-26	oos	0.913	0.911152	-0.20%	0.8635	-5.42%	0.0345	✓	1.15
2026-04-25	oos	0.93	0.925664	-0.47%	0.913	-1.83%	0.0290	✓	1.17
2026-04-24	oos	0.9475	0.943305	-0.44%	0.93	-1.85%	0.0171	✓	1.20
2026-04-23	oos	0.9245	0.924126	-0.04%	0.9475	+2.49%	0.0376	✗	1.20
2026-04-22	oos	0.8805	0.882936	+0.28%	0.9245	+5.00%	0.0449	✓	1.20
2026-04-21	oos	0.8975	0.898655	+0.13%	0.8805	-1.89%	0.0495	✗	1.21
2026-04-20	oos	0.9005	0.901158	+0.07%	0.8975	-0.33%	0.0118	✗	1.22
2026-04-19	oos	0.89	0.889944	-0.01%	0.9005	+1.18%	0.0209	✓	1.20
2026-04-18	oos	0.976	0.974352	-0.17%	0.89	-8.81%	0.0601	✓	1.19
2026-04-17	oos	1.0495	1.0472	-0.22%	0.976	-7.00%	0.0492	✓	1.19
2026-04-16	oos	1.043	1.0399	-0.30%	1.0495	+0.62%	0.0212	✓	1.20
2026-04-15	oos	1.0425	1.0393	-0.31%	1.043	+0.05%	0.0017	✓	1.19
2026-04-14	oos	1.0235	1.0208	-0.27%	1.0425	+1.86%	0.0105	✗	1.19
2026-04-13	oos	1.1435	1.1402	-0.29%	1.0235	-10.49%	0.1037	✓	1.19
2026-04-12	oos	1.094	1.0909	-0.28%	1.1435	+4.52%	0.0140	✓	1.20
2026-04-11	oos	1.206	1.2014	-0.38%	1.094	-9.29%	0.0554	✓	1.18
2026-04-10	oos	1.136	1.1321	-0.34%	1.206	+6.16%	0.0618	✗	1.18
2026-04-09	oos	1.016	1.0142	-0.17%	1.136	+11.81%	0.0942	✗	1.16
2026-04-08	oos	0.999	0.997511	-0.15%	1.016	+1.70%	0.0068	✗	1.16
2026-04-07	oos	1.073	1.0688	-0.39%	0.999	-6.90%	0.0543	✓	1.15
2026-04-06	oos	1.0245	1.0224	-0.21%	1.073	+4.73%	0.0017	✓	1.15
2026-04-05	oos	1.0095	1.0069	-0.26%	1.0245	+1.49%	0.0199	✗	1.15
2026-04-04	oos	0.986	0.985426	-0.06%	1.0095	+2.38%	0.0048	✓	1.15
2026-04-03	oos	0.989	0.988257	-0.08%	0.986	-0.30%	0.0080	✓	1.15
2026-04-02	oos	0.949	0.948375	-0.07%	0.989	+4.21%	0.0408	✗	1.15
2026-04-01	oos	0.889	0.888087	-0.10%	0.949	+6.75%	0.0873	✗	1.16
2026-03-31	oos	0.871	0.869948	-0.12%	0.889	+2.07%	0.0235	✗	1.16
2026-03-30	oos	0.8075	0.808237	+0.09%	0.871	+7.86%	0.0496	✓	1.14
2026-03-29	oos	0.8265	0.827294	+0.10%	0.8075	-2.30%	0.0377	✗	1.15
2026-03-28	oos	0.8575	0.857831	+0.04%	0.8265	-3.62%	0.0309	✗	1.15
2026-03-27	oos	0.8825	0.882505	+0.00%	0.8575	-2.83%	0.0282	✗	1.15
2026-03-26	oos	0.912	0.909451	-0.28%	0.8825	-3.23%	0.0113	✗	1.16
2026-03-25	oos	0.9945	0.991508	-0.30%	0.912	-8.30%	0.0423	✓	1.14
2026-03-24	oos	1.0085	1.0065	-0.20%	0.9945	-1.39%	0.0244	✓	1.15
2026-03-23	oos	0.954	0.953327	-0.07%	1.0085	+5.71%	0.0618	✗	1.15
2026-03-22	oos	0.9405	0.940881	+0.04%	0.954	+1.44%	0.0370	✗	1.17
2026-03-21	oos	1.052	1.0501	-0.18%	0.9405	-10.60%	0.0923	✓	1.15
2026-03-20	oos	1.064	1.0621	-0.18%	1.052	-1.13%	0.0168	✗	1.16
2026-03-19	oos	1.1945	1.1909	-0.30%	1.064	-10.93%	0.1224	✓	1.18
2026-03-18	oos	1.213	1.2083	-0.39%	1.1945	-1.53%	0.0107	✗	1.18
2026-03-17	oos	1.296	1.2892	-0.53%	1.213	-6.40%	0.0175	✓	1.17
2026-03-16	oos	1.1645	1.1617	-0.24%	1.296	+11.29%	0.1245	✗	1.19
2026-03-15	oos	1.087	1.0845	-0.23%	1.1645	+7.13%	0.0387	✗	1.17
2026-03-14	oos	1.107	1.1036	-0.31%	1.087	-1.81%	0.0414	✓	1.18
2026-03-13	oos	1.0995	1.0964	-0.28%	1.107	+0.68%	0.0048	✗	1.18
2026-03-12	oos	1.1525	1.1489	-0.31%	1.0995	-4.60%	0.0509	✓	1.19
2026-03-11	oos	1.0715	1.0706	-0.08%	1.1525	+7.56%	0.0683	✗	1.18
2026-03-10	oos	1.055	1.0556	+0.06%	1.0715	+1.56%	0.0108	✓	1.18
2026-03-09	oos	1.021	1.024	+0.30%	1.055	+3.33%	0.0039	✓	1.17
2026-03-08	oos	1.019	1.0244	+0.53%	1.021	+0.20%	0.0472	✗	1.20
2026-03-07	oos	1.13	1.1318	+0.16%	1.019	-9.82%	0.0821	✗	1.18
2026-03-06	oos	1.14	1.1404	+0.03%	1.13	-0.88%	0.0057	✓	1.18
2026-03-05	oos	1.2085	1.2075	-0.08%	1.14	-5.67%	0.0103	✓	1.18
2026-03-04	oos	1.373	1.371	-0.15%	1.2085	-11.98%	0.0973	✓	1.15
2026-03-03	oos	1.301	1.2987	-0.18%	1.373	+5.53%	0.0166	✓	1.17
2026-03-02	oos	1.357	1.3545	-0.18%	1.301	-4.13%	0.0318	✓	1.17
2026-03-01	oos	1.359	1.3552	-0.28%	1.357	-0.15%	0.0542	✓	1.22
2026-02-28	oos	1.38	1.3765	-0.25%	1.359	-1.52%	0.0093	✗	1.22
2026-02-27	oos	1.358	1.3545	-0.26%	1.38	+1.62%	0.0017	✓	1.22
2026-02-26	oos	1.4295	1.4261	-0.24%	1.358	-5.00%	0.0191	✓	1.22
2026-02-25	oos	1.456	1.4522	-0.26%	1.4295	-1.82%	0.0067	✓	1.22
2026-02-24	oos	1.4305	1.4248	-0.40%	1.456	+1.78%	0.0552	✓	1.29
2026-02-23	oos	1.386	1.3816	-0.32%	1.4305	+3.21%	0.0460	✗	1.29
2026-02-22	oos	1.4465	1.4429	-0.25%	1.386	-4.18%	0.0185	✗	1.30
2026-02-21	oos	1.514	1.5101	-0.26%	1.4465	-4.46%	0.0365	✓	1.30
2026-02-20	oos	1.532	1.5281	-0.25%	1.514	-1.17%	0.0087	✓	1.31
2026-02-19	oos	1.476	1.4726	-0.23%	1.532	+3.79%	0.0201	✗	1.30
2026-02-18	oos	1.445	1.4421	-0.20%	1.476	+2.15%	0.0125	✗	1.30
2026-02-17	oos	1.591	1.5871	-0.24%	1.445	-9.18%	0.0736	✓	1.29
2026-02-16	oos	1.687	1.6818	-0.31%	1.591	-5.69%	0.0293	✓	1.28
2026-02-15	oos	1.68	1.6745	-0.33%	1.687	+0.42%	0.0062	✗	1.28
2026-02-14	oos	1.645	1.6398	-0.31%	1.68	+2.13%	0.0427	✗	1.29
2026-02-13	oos	1.5985	1.5941	-0.28%	1.645	+2.91%	0.0174	✗	1.00
2026-02-12	oos	1.426	1.4251	-0.06%	1.5985	+12.10%	0.0762	✗	1.00
2026-02-11	oos	1.418	1.4174	-0.04%	1.426	+0.56%	0.0183	✗	1.00
2026-02-10	oos	1.471	1.4692	-0.12%	1.418	-3.60%	0.0093	✓	1.00
2026-02-09	oos	1.547	1.5433	-0.24%	1.471	-4.91%	0.0293	✓	1.00
2026-02-08	oos	1.62	1.6145	-0.34%	1.547	-4.51%	0.0402	✓	1.00
2026-02-07	oos	1.63	1.6241	-0.36%	1.62	-0.61%	0.0174	✓	1.00
2026-02-06	oos	1.664	1.6508	-0.80%	1.63	-2.04%	0.0057	✓	1.00
2026-02-05	oos	1.436	1.4422	+0.43%	1.664	+15.88%	0.0269	✓	1.00
2026-02-04	oos	1.576	1.5544	-1.37%	1.436	-8.88%	0.0714	✗	1.00
2026-02-03	oos	1.482	1.4709	-0.75%	1.576	+6.34%	0.1049	✗	1.00
2026-02-02	oos	1.593	1.5873	-0.36%	1.482	-6.97%	0.0297	✓	1.00
2026-02-01	oos	1.512	1.5055	-0.43%	1.593	+5.36%	0.0337	✗	1.00
2026-01-31	oos	1.564	1.5599	-0.26%	1.512	-3.32%	0.0086	✓	1.00
2026-01-30	oos	1.723	1.7195	-0.21%	1.564	-9.23%	0.0276	✓	1.00
2026-01-29	oos	1.612	1.6094	-0.16%	1.723	+6.89%	0.0729	✗	1.00
2026-01-28	oos	1.99	1.9825	-0.38%	1.612	-18.99%	0.1533	✓	1.00
2026-01-27	oos	1.939	1.9311	-0.41%	1.99	+2.63%	0.0295	✗	1.00
2026-01-26	oos	1.708	1.7038	-0.25%	1.939	+13.52%	0.1196	✗	1.00
2026-01-25	oos	1.5775	1.575	-0.16%	1.708	+8.27%	0.0617	✗	1.00
2026-01-24	oos	1.806	1.7997	-0.35%	1.5775	-12.65%	0.1031	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.