DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s2

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 417

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

132

of 139 predictions shown

direction hit

56.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1604

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0166

actual +0.0596

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.40159	0.39207	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-21	oos	0.402115	0.393501	-2.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.390999	-1.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.391092	-1.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.376129	-1.50%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.395345	-1.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.381179	-1.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.402826	-2.05%	0.40159	-2.35%	0.0380	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.408621	-1.86%	0.402115	-3.43%	0.0573	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.438775	-2.68%	0.398745	-11.56%	0.0929	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.430343	-2.37%	0.39882	-9.52%	0.0777	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.481573	-2.97%	0.38187	-23.06%	0.2004	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.519265	-3.59%	0.403015	-25.18%	0.2236	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.493826	-4.26%	0.387205	-24.93%	0.2228	✓	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.420546	-3.71%	0.41127	-5.83%	0.0305	✓	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.367027	-1.74%	0.416385	+11.47%	0.1608	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.396846	-2.64%	0.450845	+10.61%	0.1748	✗	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.400285	-2.86%	0.4408	+6.97%	0.1743	✗	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.403665	-3.19%	0.49633	+19.04%	0.2609	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.375251	-2.41%	0.538615	+40.07%	0.3967	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.386045	-2.62%	0.515775	+30.10%	0.3276	✗	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.383886	-2.86%	0.436745	+10.52%	0.1899	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.379779	-2.58%	0.373545	-4.18%	0.0112	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.371822	-2.58%	0.407595	+6.79%	0.0560	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.361365	-2.21%	0.41208	+11.52%	0.0897	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.42018	-3.46%	0.41695	-4.20%	0.0408	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.40049	-3.02%	0.38453	-6.88%	0.0460	✓	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.429923	-3.23%	0.39644	-10.76%	0.0876	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.438212	-3.40%	0.395175	-12.89%	0.1107	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.462625	-4.82%	0.38983	-19.80%	0.1583	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.417345	-4.35%	0.381685	-12.52%	0.0473	✓	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.387523	-4.15%	0.36952	-8.60%	0.0049	✓	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.374549	-4.33%	0.43524	+11.17%	0.0886	✗	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.410072	-8.16%	0.412955	-7.51%	0.0512	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.279718	-5.24%	0.44425	+50.50%	0.4029	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.244343	-4.21%	0.45364	+77.84%	0.4739	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.22663	-7.34%	0.48606	+98.74%	0.6147	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.138178	+0.82%	0.436315	+218.36%	0.9712	✓	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.142346	+0.97%	0.4043	+186.77%	0.9029	✓	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.144792	+0.86%	0.391515	+172.72%	0.9174	✓	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.151295	+0.92%	0.446505	+197.83%	1.0125	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.150443	+1.30%	0.29519	+98.77%	0.6102	✓	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.149764	+1.39%	0.25509	+72.70%	0.5359	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.156708	+1.70%	0.24457	+58.71%	0.4827	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.165993	+1.26%	0.13705	-16.40%	0.1411	✗	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.161135	+2.31%	0.140985	-10.49%	0.1174	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.169543	+2.67%	0.14356	-13.07%	0.1036	✗	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.174714	+1.44%	0.14992	-12.96%	0.1078	✗	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.154603	+3.32%	0.148505	-0.76%	0.0057	✓	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.163803	+3.31%	0.147705	-6.85%	0.0178	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.146824	+2.17%	0.154095	+7.23%	0.0294	✓	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.146148	+2.32%	0.16393	+14.76%	0.0945	✓	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.157769	+2.61%	0.1575	+2.44%	0.0101	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.15937	+1.95%	0.16514	+5.64%	0.0072	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.174645	+1.60%	0.17224	+0.20%	0.0358	✗	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.171293	+1.09%	0.14964	-11.69%	0.1604	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.178515	+1.15%	0.15856	-10.16%	0.1316	✗	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.166851	-0.04%	0.14371	-13.90%	0.1260	✓	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.148195	+0.10%	0.14284	-3.51%	0.0217	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.159421	-2.68%	0.153755	-6.14%	0.0307	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.129028	-1.57%	0.15632	+19.25%	0.1927	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112426	-0.81%	0.1719	+51.67%	0.4106	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.116575	-1.94%	0.16944	+42.53%	0.3796	✗	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.096943	-1.56%	0.17649	+79.22%	0.5366	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.096609	-2.11%	0.166915	+69.13%	0.4516	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.092015	-1.56%	0.14804	+58.37%	0.3356	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.094097	-1.74%	0.163815	+71.06%	0.4069	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.099582	-3.79%	0.13109	+26.64%	0.0977	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.091602	-1.48%	0.11334	+21.90%	0.0446	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.091414	-1.43%	0.11888	+28.19%	0.0801	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.093574	-1.48%	0.098475	+3.68%	0.0662	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.096973	-1.69%	0.09869	+0.05%	0.0567	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.095905	-1.77%	0.093475	-4.26%	0.0407	✓	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.091918	-1.55%	0.095765	+2.57%	0.0336	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.095218	-1.91%	0.10351	+6.63%	0.1096	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.095523	-1.89%	0.092975	-4.50%	0.0026	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.095178	-1.76%	0.09274	-4.28%	0.0011	✓	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.096155	-1.69%	0.09498	-2.89%	0.0012	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.099074	-1.79%	0.09864	-2.22%	0.0111	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.09986	-1.78%	0.097635	-3.97%	0.0157	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.096252	-0.93%	0.093365	-3.91%	0.0362	✓	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.098856	-0.85%	0.09707	-2.64%	0.0357	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.104543	-1.15%	0.09736	-7.94%	0.1005	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.112506	-3.58%	0.096885	-16.97%	0.1779	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.094386	-0.20%	0.097805	+3.42%	0.0436	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.096499	-0.19%	0.100875	+4.34%	0.0316	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102394	-0.74%	0.10167	-1.44%	0.0108	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.104823	-0.96%	0.09716	-8.20%	0.0717	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.112515	-1.80%	0.0997	-12.98%	0.0889	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.111847	-1.61%	0.105755	-6.97%	0.0286	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.113146	-1.59%	0.116685	+1.48%	0.0534	✗	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.116831	-1.92%	0.094575	-20.60%	0.2056	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.119094	-2.06%	0.09668	-20.49%	0.1708	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.117542	-2.00%	0.10316	-13.99%	0.0846	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.12113	-2.09%	0.105835	-14.45%	0.1071	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.120679	-1.94%	0.114575	-6.90%	0.0640	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.12355	-2.02%	0.113675	-9.85%	0.0741	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.127381	-1.96%	0.11498	-11.50%	0.1061	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.132715	-1.90%	0.119115	-11.95%	0.1329	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.142216	-2.49%	0.121595	-16.63%	0.1820	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.146877	-5.36%	0.11994	-22.72%	0.2306	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.114683	-1.89%	0.123715	+5.83%	0.0434	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.120421	-2.36%	0.12307	-0.21%	0.0122	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.121008	-2.43%	0.1261	+1.68%	0.0308	✗	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.114517	-2.72%	0.129925	+10.37%	0.1286	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.111689	-2.34%	0.135285	+18.29%	0.1856	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.106964	-1.91%	0.145845	+33.74%	0.2858	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.108182	-2.13%	0.1552	+40.40%	0.3450	✗	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.110916	-2.41%	0.116895	+2.86%	0.0690	✗	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.109702	-2.21%	0.12333	+9.94%	0.1156	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.105517	-2.00%	0.12402	+15.19%	0.1552	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.10777	-2.30%	0.11772	+6.72%	0.0727	✗	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.109668	-2.17%	0.11437	+2.02%	0.0240	✗	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.105027	-2.14%	0.10905	+1.61%	0.0139	✓	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.11055	-2.69%	0.11054	-2.70%	0.0634	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.10347	-2.09%	0.11365	+7.54%	0.0373	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.099004	-2.62%	0.11218	+10.34%	0.0650	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.086474	-0.97%	0.10767	+23.31%	0.1728	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082544	-0.50%	0.11031	+32.97%	0.2489	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082755	-0.34%	0.112105	+35.00%	0.2742	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.082357	-0.51%	0.10732	+29.65%	0.2817	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.085269	-1.03%	0.11361	+31.86%	0.3550	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.08619	-1.24%	0.10568	+21.09%	0.2649	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.089554	-1.37%	0.10167	+11.98%	0.1882	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.096736	-1.83%	0.08732	-11.38%	0.0333	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.093608	-1.60%	0.08296	-12.79%	0.0645	✓	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.092694	-1.46%	0.08304	-11.73%	0.0582	✓	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.096278	-1.68%	0.082775	-15.47%	0.0959	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.098549	-1.87%	0.08616	-14.21%	0.0880	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.09996	-2.00%	0.087275	-14.44%	0.1000	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.098773	-2.08%	0.090795	-9.99%	0.0459	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.098751	-2.00%	0.098535	-2.22%	0.0010	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.100227	-1.90%	0.09513	-6.89%	0.0512	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.102256	-2.00%	0.09407	-9.84%	0.0726	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.097272	-1.35%	0.09792	-0.69%	0.0410	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.103362	-1.62%	0.10043	-4.41%	0.0905	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.108317	-2.76%	0.102	-8.43%	0.1098	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.101363	-2.21%	0.10087	-2.68%	0.0421	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.090787	-0.81%	0.10077	+10.10%	0.0472	✗	1.00