DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s2

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

137

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

58.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0539

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0037

actual +0.0087

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.384756	-0.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.397234	-0.38%	0.386075	-3.18%	0.0243	✓	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.397928	-0.22%	0.398745	-0.02%	0.0171	✓	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.382324	+0.12%	0.39882	+4.44%	0.0451	✓	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.403324	+0.08%	0.38187	-5.25%	0.0655	✗	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.389034	+0.47%	0.403015	+4.08%	0.0374	✓	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.412613	+0.33%	0.387205	-5.85%	0.0530	✗	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.417994	+0.39%	0.41127	-1.23%	0.0257	✗	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.450675	-0.04%	0.416385	-7.64%	0.0533	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.441321	+0.12%	0.450845	+2.28%	0.0017	✗	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.493572	-0.56%	0.4408	-11.19%	0.0764	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.533935	-0.87%	0.49633	-7.85%	0.0878	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.509966	-1.13%	0.538615	+4.43%	0.0476	✗	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.433954	-0.64%	0.515775	+18.10%	0.1565	✗	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.372709	-0.22%	0.436745	+16.92%	0.1906	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.403121	-1.10%	0.373545	-8.35%	0.0324	✓	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.406706	-1.30%	0.407595	-1.09%	0.0062	✓	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.41112	-1.40%	0.41208	-1.17%	0.0167	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.381446	-0.80%	0.41695	+8.43%	0.0557	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.393104	-0.84%	0.38453	-3.00%	0.0266	✓	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.392445	-0.69%	0.39644	+0.32%	0.0167	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.388104	-0.44%	0.395175	+1.37%	0.0064	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.380413	-0.33%	0.38983	+2.13%	0.0260	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.368544	-0.26%	0.381685	+3.29%	0.0317	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.433007	-0.51%	0.36952	-15.10%	0.1420	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.411126	-0.44%	0.43524	+5.40%	0.0562	✗	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.442094	-0.49%	0.412955	-7.04%	0.0733	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.451456	-0.48%	0.44425	-2.07%	0.0115	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.483123	-0.60%	0.45364	-6.67%	0.0631	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.433963	-0.54%	0.48606	+11.40%	0.1431	✗	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.40169	-0.65%	0.436315	+7.92%	0.0892	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.387968	-0.91%	0.4043	+3.27%	0.0589	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.436235	-2.30%	0.391515	-12.32%	0.1068	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.291522	-1.24%	0.446505	+51.26%	0.4196	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.250632	-1.75%	0.29519	+15.72%	0.0803	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.237313	-2.97%	0.25509	+4.30%	0.0684	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.137388	+0.25%	0.24457	+78.45%	0.5666	✓	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.141274	+0.20%	0.13705	-2.79%	0.0161	✓	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.143924	+0.25%	0.140985	-1.79%	0.0455	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.150189	+0.18%	0.14356	-4.24%	0.0368	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.148956	+0.30%	0.14992	+0.95%	0.0055	✓	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.148294	+0.40%	0.148505	+0.54%	0.0105	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.154508	+0.27%	0.147705	-4.15%	0.0144	✗	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.16409	+0.10%	0.154095	-6.00%	0.0600	✗	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.157807	+0.19%	0.16393	+4.08%	0.0494	✓	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.165149	+0.01%	0.1575	-4.63%	0.0256	✗	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.171475	-0.44%	0.16514	-4.12%	0.0464	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.149893	+0.17%	0.17224	+15.10%	0.1361	✓	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.158613	+0.03%	0.14964	-5.63%	0.0300	✗	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.144114	+0.28%	0.15856	+10.33%	0.0202	✓	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.14329	+0.31%	0.14371	+0.61%	0.0047	✓	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.154018	+0.17%	0.14284	-7.10%	0.0566	✗	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.156464	+0.09%	0.153755	-1.64%	0.0320	✗	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.171666	-0.14%	0.15632	-9.06%	0.0857	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.169099	-0.20%	0.1719	+1.45%	0.0110	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.175412	-0.61%	0.16944	-3.99%	0.0017	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.165736	-0.71%	0.17649	+5.74%	0.0463	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.147042	-0.67%	0.166915	+12.75%	0.1202	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.160024	-2.31%	0.14804	-9.63%	0.0719	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.129906	-0.90%	0.163815	+24.96%	0.2168	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.113005	-0.30%	0.13109	+15.66%	0.1404	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.118013	-0.73%	0.11334	-4.66%	0.0256	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.098531	+0.06%	0.11888	+20.72%	0.1414	✓	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.098379	-0.32%	0.098475	-0.22%	0.0369	✓	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.093222	-0.27%	0.09869	+5.58%	0.0072	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.095365	-0.42%	0.093475	-2.39%	0.0223	✓	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.102599	-0.88%	0.095765	-7.48%	0.0904	✓	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.092935	-0.04%	0.10351	+11.33%	0.1102	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.092777	+0.04%	0.092975	+0.25%	0.0015	✓	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.094938	-0.04%	0.09274	-2.36%	0.0175	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.098532	-0.11%	0.09498	-3.71%	0.0369	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.097475	-0.16%	0.09864	+1.03%	0.0135	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.093178	-0.20%	0.097635	+4.57%	0.0518	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.096633	-0.45%	0.093365	-3.82%	0.0224	✓	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.096898	-0.47%	0.09707	-0.30%	0.0025	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.096383	-0.52%	0.09736	+0.49%	0.0099	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.097298	-0.52%	0.096885	-0.94%	0.0124	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.100194	-0.68%	0.097805	-3.04%	0.0198	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.10102	-0.64%	0.100875	-0.78%	0.0087	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.096846	-0.32%	0.10167	+4.64%	0.0410	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.099327	-0.37%	0.09716	-2.55%	0.0216	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.105177	-0.55%	0.0997	-5.73%	0.0636	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.115481	-1.03%	0.105755	-9.37%	0.0871	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.094427	-0.16%	0.116685	+23.38%	0.2454	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.096574	-0.11%	0.094575	-2.18%	0.0358	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102918	-0.23%	0.09668	-6.28%	0.0634	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.105577	-0.24%	0.10316	-2.53%	0.0260	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.114293	-0.25%	0.105835	-7.63%	0.0483	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.113386	-0.25%	0.114575	+0.79%	0.0079	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.114703	-0.24%	0.113675	-1.13%	0.0128	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.118847	-0.23%	0.11498	-3.47%	0.0162	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.121434	-0.13%	0.119115	-2.04%	0.0016	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.119904	-0.03%	0.121595	+1.38%	0.0213	✗	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.12359	-0.10%	0.11994	-3.05%	0.0534	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.122955	-0.09%	0.123715	+0.52%	0.0036	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.125931	-0.13%	0.12307	-2.40%	0.0209	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.129639	-0.22%	0.1261	-2.94%	0.0450	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.134837	-0.33%	0.129925	-3.96%	0.0395	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.145062	-0.54%	0.135285	-7.24%	0.0520	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.153355	-1.19%	0.145845	-6.03%	0.0452	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.116702	-0.17%	0.1552	+32.77%	0.2551	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.123026	-0.25%	0.116895	-5.22%	0.0359	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.123691	-0.27%	0.12333	-0.56%	0.0026	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.117468	-0.21%	0.12402	+5.35%	0.0579	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.11415	-0.19%	0.11772	+2.93%	0.0211	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.10887	-0.17%	0.11437	+4.88%	0.0400	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.110378	-0.15%	0.10905	-1.35%	0.0015	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.113434	-0.19%	0.11054	-2.74%	0.0194	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.111947	-0.21%	0.11365	+1.31%	0.0112	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.107432	-0.22%	0.11218	+4.19%	0.0387	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.109914	-0.36%	0.10767	-2.39%	0.0262	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.111498	-0.54%	0.11031	-1.60%	0.0218	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.106289	-0.96%	0.112105	+4.46%	0.0373	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.111535	-1.83%	0.10732	-5.54%	0.0580	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.104846	-0.79%	0.11361	+7.50%	0.1055	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.100803	-0.85%	0.10568	+3.94%	0.0369	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.087475	+0.18%	0.10167	+16.43%	0.1574	✓	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.083165	+0.25%	0.08732	+5.26%	0.0499	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.083194	+0.19%	0.08296	-0.10%	0.0078	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.08284	+0.08%	0.08304	+0.32%	0.0236	✓	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.086123	-0.04%	0.082775	-3.93%	0.0128	✓	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.087191	-0.10%	0.08616	-1.28%	0.0087	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.090694	-0.11%	0.087275	-3.88%	0.0497	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.098346	-0.19%	0.090795	-7.86%	0.0644	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.094985	-0.15%	0.098535	+3.58%	0.0250	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.093938	-0.14%	0.09513	+1.13%	0.0032	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.097742	-0.18%	0.09407	-3.93%	0.0137	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.100225	-0.20%	0.09792	-2.50%	0.0053	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.101739	-0.26%	0.10043	-1.54%	0.0029	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.100594	-0.27%	0.102	+1.12%	0.0052	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.100478	-0.29%	0.10087	+0.10%	0.0157	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.10187	-0.29%	0.10077	-1.37%	0.0248	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.103971	-0.35%	0.10217	-2.08%	0.0171	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.098369	-0.23%	0.10434	+5.82%	0.0251	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.104623	-0.42%	0.0986	-6.15%	0.0554	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.110452	-0.84%	0.10506	-5.68%	0.0280	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.102836	-0.78%	0.11139	+7.47%	0.0837	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.091032	-0.54%	0.10365	+13.24%	0.0903	✗	1.00