DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s2

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

108

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

46.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4291

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0187

actual +0.3218

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.361698	-6.31%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.373567	-6.31%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.372208	-6.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.359717	-5.80%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.377611	-6.30%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.366675	-5.30%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.388515	-5.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.394138	-5.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.423535	-6.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.413745	-6.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.461544	-7.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.494663	-8.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.472208	-8.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.404118	-7.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.353926	-5.25%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.384027	-5.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.386632	-6.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.390272	-6.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.361882	-5.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.370894	-6.44%	–	pending	–	–	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.370371	-6.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.367002	-5.86%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.360257	-5.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.349075	-5.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.404545	-7.05%	–	pending	–	–	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.385517	-6.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.414699	-6.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.425969	-6.10%	–	pending	–	–	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.458072	-5.76%	–	pending	–	–	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.419141	-3.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.391176	-3.25%	0.386075	-4.51%	0.0523	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.373177	-4.68%	0.398745	+1.85%	0.0328	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.425781	-4.64%	0.39882	-10.68%	0.0766	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.28369	-3.90%	0.38187	+29.36%	0.2759	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.239448	-6.13%	0.403015	+57.99%	0.4282	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.227909	-6.81%	0.387205	+58.32%	0.4318	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.133052	-2.92%	0.41127	+200.09%	1.0157	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.139343	-1.16%	0.416385	+195.34%	1.0361	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.14152	-1.42%	0.450845	+214.05%	1.0482	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.14799	-1.29%	0.4408	+194.02%	1.0130	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.147698	-0.54%	0.49633	+234.22%	1.1013	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.147418	-0.19%	0.538615	+264.66%	1.1864	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.154957	+0.56%	0.515775	+234.71%	1.1306	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.164449	+0.32%	0.436745	+166.42%	0.9217	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.1594	+1.21%	0.373545	+137.17%	0.7802	✓	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.16756	+1.47%	0.407595	+146.82%	0.8015	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.173662	+0.83%	0.41208	+139.25%	0.7651	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.152942	+2.21%	0.41695	+178.64%	0.8828	✓	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.162307	+2.36%	0.38453	+142.51%	0.8026	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.147545	+2.67%	0.39644	+175.86%	0.8540	✓	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.147459	+3.23%	0.395175	+176.66%	0.8469	✓	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.157857	+2.67%	0.38983	+153.54%	0.8266	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.160021	+2.37%	0.381685	+144.17%	0.7757	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.17411	+1.29%	0.36952	+114.96%	0.6825	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.171787	+1.39%	0.43524	+156.87%	0.8413	✓	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.180649	+2.36%	0.412955	+133.98%	0.7730	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.17084	+2.35%	0.44425	+166.15%	0.8899	✓	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.153056	+3.39%	0.45364	+206.43%	1.0115	✓	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.166053	+1.37%	0.48606	+196.71%	1.0062	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.135971	+3.72%	0.436315	+232.84%	1.0678	✓	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.11887	+4.88%	0.4043	+256.71%	1.1165	✓	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.125038	+5.18%	0.391515	+229.34%	1.1092	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.101236	+2.80%	0.446505	+353.42%	1.4136	✓	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.098359	-0.34%	0.29519	+199.11%	0.9870	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.091975	-1.61%	0.25509	+172.90%	0.9004	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.093648	-2.21%	0.24457	+155.39%	0.8391	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.100577	-2.83%	0.13705	+32.40%	0.1555	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.091873	-1.19%	0.140985	+51.64%	0.2479	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.091835	-0.98%	0.14356	+54.80%	0.2806	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.093452	-1.61%	0.14992	+57.84%	0.3083	✗	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.096401	-2.27%	0.148505	+50.55%	0.2674	✗	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.095102	-2.59%	0.147705	+51.28%	0.2845	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.091271	-2.24%	0.154095	+65.05%	0.3526	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.094346	-2.81%	0.16393	+68.88%	0.3947	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.09434	-3.10%	0.1575	+61.77%	0.3488	✗	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.093842	-3.14%	0.16514	+70.45%	0.3882	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.09494	-2.93%	0.17224	+76.11%	0.4138	✗	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.097134	-3.71%	0.14964	+48.34%	0.2572	✗	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.097625	-3.98%	0.15856	+55.96%	0.2844	✗	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.094095	-3.15%	0.14371	+47.91%	0.2601	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.097114	-2.59%	0.14284	+43.27%	0.2215	✗	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.10287	-2.73%	0.153755	+45.39%	0.2063	✗	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.112451	-3.63%	0.15632	+33.97%	0.1434	✗	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.09223	-2.48%	0.1719	+81.76%	0.4073	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.094674	-2.07%	0.16944	+75.26%	0.3528	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.100119	-2.95%	0.17649	+71.08%	0.2989	✗	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.102519	-3.13%	0.166915	+57.71%	0.2334	✗	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.11125	-2.90%	0.14804	+29.21%	0.0796	✗	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.110162	-3.09%	0.163815	+44.11%	0.1631	✗	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.111485	-3.04%	0.13109	+14.01%	0.0584	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.116001	-2.61%	0.11334	-4.85%	0.2140	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.119165	-2.00%	0.11888	-2.23%	0.1925	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.117935	-1.67%	0.098475	-17.90%	0.2848	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.121256	-1.99%	0.09869	-20.23%	0.2778	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.120642	-1.97%	0.093475	-24.05%	0.2551	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.12307	-2.40%	0.095765	-24.06%	0.2450	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.126108	-2.94%	0.10351	-20.33%	0.1769	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.130475	-3.56%	0.092975	-31.27%	0.3241	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.139925	-4.06%	0.09274	-36.41%	0.3783	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.148474	-4.33%	0.09498	-38.80%	0.4174	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.113394	-3.00%	0.09864	-15.62%	0.1522	✓	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.11883	-3.65%	0.097635	-20.83%	0.1943	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.119394	-3.73%	0.093365	-24.72%	0.2473	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.113665	-3.44%	0.09707	-17.54%	0.1652	✓	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.110532	-3.36%	0.09736	-14.87%	0.1445	✓	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.105518	-3.24%	0.096885	-11.16%	0.1113	✓	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.107361	-2.88%	0.097805	-11.52%	0.1023	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.1103	-2.95%	0.100875	-11.24%	0.0949	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.108939	-2.89%	0.10167	-9.37%	0.0735	✓	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.104813	-2.65%	0.09716	-9.76%	0.0793	✓	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.107441	-2.60%	0.0997	-9.62%	0.0843	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.109276	-2.52%	0.105755	-5.66%	0.0464	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.10476	-2.39%	0.116685	+8.73%	0.0782	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.109134	-3.94%	0.094575	-16.75%	0.2241	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.103758	-1.82%	0.09668	-8.52%	0.1257	✓	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.100085	-1.56%	0.10316	+1.47%	0.0333	✓	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.086649	-0.77%	0.105835	+21.20%	0.1449	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082385	-0.69%	0.114575	+38.11%	0.2446	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082001	-1.25%	0.113675	+36.89%	0.2525	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.081035	-2.10%	0.11498	+38.91%	0.3003	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.083446	-3.15%	0.119115	+38.25%	0.3182	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.083963	-3.79%	0.121595	+39.32%	0.3375	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.087601	-3.52%	0.11994	+32.10%	0.2636	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.094727	-3.86%	0.123715	+25.55%	0.2517	✗	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.091842	-3.46%	0.12307	+29.37%	0.2739	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.091161	-3.09%	0.1261	+34.05%	0.2944	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.094243	-3.75%	0.129925	+32.68%	0.3297	✗	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.096393	-4.02%	0.135285	+34.71%	0.3675	✗	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.097863	-4.06%	0.145845	+42.99%	0.4228	✗	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.096997	-3.84%	0.1552	+53.86%	0.4810	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.097327	-3.42%	0.116895	+16.00%	0.2174	✗	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.099015	-3.09%	0.12333	+20.71%	0.2164	✗	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.100998	-3.20%	0.12402	+18.86%	0.2020	✗	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.09638	-2.25%	0.11772	+19.39%	0.1573	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.102418	-2.51%	0.11437	+8.86%	0.0865	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.107649	-3.36%	0.10905	-2.10%	0.0261	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.09996	-3.56%	0.11054	+6.65%	0.1003	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.089085	-2.67%	0.11365	+24.17%	0.1930	✗	1.00