BTW
Bitway · Ethereum · gru_s2
- token id
- #40
- symbol
- BTW
- variant
- –
- chain
- Ethereum
- address
- 0x3a63de3572c69a1307ff08394f3ee7702c16d25d
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-24
- predictions
- 150
Track record at +1d
assessed
49
of 50 predictions shown
direction hit
40.8%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1136
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0094
actual +0.0275
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 2.1044 | 2.0733 | -1.48% | – | pending | – | – | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 2.0432 | 2.0155 | -1.35% | 2.1044 | +3.00% | 0.0388 | ✗ | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 1.9664 | 1.9442 | -1.13% | 2.0432 | +3.91% | 0.0697 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 2.4152 | 2.3745 | -1.68% | 1.9664 | -18.58% | 0.1917 | ✓ | -1.54 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 2.4383 | 2.3974 | -1.67% | 2.4152 | -0.95% | 0.0191 | ✗ | -1.53 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 1.9279 | 1.9086 | -1.00% | 2.4383 | +26.48% | 0.2427 | ✗ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 1.8166 | 1.7999 | -0.92% | 1.9279 | +6.12% | 0.0572 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 2.3803 | 2.3508 | -1.24% | 1.8166 | -23.68% | 0.2483 | ✓ | -1.40 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 2.0884 | 2.0599 | -1.36% | 2.3803 | +13.98% | 0.1199 | ✗ | -1.32 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 1.7495 | 1.733 | -0.95% | 2.0884 | +19.36% | 0.2108 | ✗ | -1.47 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 1.6258 | 1.6067 | -1.17% | 1.7495 | +7.61% | 0.0511 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 1.5842 | 1.5635 | -1.31% | 1.6258 | +2.62% | 0.0525 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 1.5753 | 1.5487 | -1.69% | 1.5842 | +0.57% | 0.0291 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 1.3928 | 1.373 | -1.42% | 1.5753 | +13.10% | 0.1532 | ✗ | -1.52 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 1.2975 | 1.273 | -1.90% | 1.3928 | +7.34% | 0.0612 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 1.2135 | 1.1876 | -2.13% | 1.2975 | +6.93% | 0.0483 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 1.2336 | 1.2069 | -2.17% | 1.2135 | -1.63% | 0.0018 | ✓ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 1.2458 | 1.2214 | -1.96% | 1.2336 | -0.98% | 0.0037 | ✓ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 1.0377 | 1.0267 | -1.06% | 1.2458 | +20.05% | 0.2300 | ✗ | -1.77 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 1.3815 | 1.36 | -1.56% | 1.0377 | -24.89% | 0.2656 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 1.4183 | 1.3979 | -1.44% | 1.3815 | -2.59% | 0.0190 | ✓ | -1.78 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 1.329 | 1.3134 | -1.17% | 1.4183 | +6.72% | 0.1050 | ✗ | -1.83 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 1.3887 | 1.3719 | -1.21% | 1.329 | -4.31% | 0.0336 | ✓ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 1.1192 | 1.1094 | -0.87% | 1.3887 | +24.08% | 0.2286 | ✗ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 1.2207 | 1.2103 | -0.85% | 1.1192 | -8.31% | 0.1020 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 1.0015 | 0.995146 | -0.64% | 1.2207 | +21.88% | 0.2053 | ✗ | -1.96 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 1.3154 | 1.3029 | -0.95% | 1.0015 | -23.86% | 0.2556 | ✓ | -1.93 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.9544 | 0.949502 | -0.51% | 1.3154 | +37.82% | 0.3196 | ✗ | -1.82 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 1.0378 | 1.0295 | -0.80% | 0.9544 | -8.04% | 0.0756 | ✓ | -1.84 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.8978 | 0.892727 | -0.57% | 1.0378 | +15.59% | 0.1719 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.8007 | 0.796572 | -0.52% | 0.8978 | +12.13% | 0.1242 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.74705 | 0.736792 | -1.37% | 0.8007 | +7.18% | 0.0184 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.5903 | 0.587343 | -0.50% | 0.74705 | +26.55% | 0.2414 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.6302 | 0.626206 | -0.63% | 0.5903 | -6.33% | 0.0635 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.7199 | 0.713754 | -0.85% | 0.6302 | -12.46% | 0.1821 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.7502 | 0.743624 | -0.88% | 0.7199 | -4.04% | 0.0351 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.70505 | 0.699772 | -0.75% | 0.7502 | +6.40% | 0.0622 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.5826 | 0.579154 | -0.59% | 0.70505 | +21.02% | 0.2304 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.73445 | 0.72359 | -1.48% | 0.5826 | -20.68% | 0.2345 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.5503 | 0.547549 | -0.50% | 0.73445 | +33.46% | 0.2997 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.5088 | 0.507536 | -0.25% | 0.5503 | +8.16% | 0.0802 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.50005 | 0.498595 | -0.29% | 0.5088 | +1.75% | 0.0115 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.4511 | 0.451098 | -0.00% | 0.50005 | +10.85% | 0.1256 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.43775 | 0.438151 | +0.09% | 0.4511 | +3.05% | 0.0312 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.45105 | 0.45119 | +0.03% | 0.43775 | -2.95% | 0.0221 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.4474 | 0.447677 | +0.06% | 0.45105 | +0.82% | 0.0232 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.4522 | 0.452155 | -0.01% | 0.4474 | -1.06% | 0.0169 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.45655 | 0.456263 | -0.06% | 0.4522 | -0.95% | 0.0109 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.4544 | 0.454464 | +0.01% | 0.45655 | +0.47% | 0.0243 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.4896 | 0.486698 | -0.59% | 0.4544 | -7.19% | 0.1186 | ✓ | 1.00 |